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Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures. Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014. LEARNING OBJECTIVES. Understand Why Aspirations Matter Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences
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Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014
LEARNING OBJECTIVES • Understand Why Aspirations Matter • Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios • Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences • Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing
Forecasts Across Four Scenarios • Macro environment • US economy • Culture • Government • Health • Definition • Status • Locus • Health Care • Health Care Delivery • Health Insurance Coverage • Health Information Technology • National Health Care Spending/GDP
Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health Personalized medicine – with clouds of data Many diseases prevented
Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trials Focus on health Social Determinants Greater Disparities
Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It 2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and Medicaid Economic Gaps Grow Political Extremes Pronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens
Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It 2020: 75 million uninsured Business ethics trump medical ethics Affluent get medical advances Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains • Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics • Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone • Political change; shared vision; cooperation
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains Personalized Vital Signs Digital health agents, gaming, social networking Local food & manufacturing “Personal data clouds”; Massive community data Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains Community Centered Health Home Triple Aim Effective self-care From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home Most providers integrated, capitated Healthy communities; self care decreasesdemand for physician services and hospital care
Scenario #4A Culture of Health Innate human drive for healthy growth Systems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domains Leaders creating environments for health
Scenario #4A Culture of Health Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youth Reality TV shows what a “good death” looks like Health care incorporates new patient’s values
Scenario #4A Culture of Health Health care spending capped locally Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions 2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory
From 2032 Back To 2014 Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in 2032. • What would you be doing in 2014 to help? • Are there new health roles for nurses? • How will you measure nursing progress? • Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?
Thank you! Jonathan Peck President & Senior Futurist Institute for Alternative Futures 703-684-5880 www.altfutures.org jpeck@altfutures.org