VCE INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

1. VCE INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIT 3 OUTCOME 2 GLOBAL CONFLICTS

2. CAUSES OF TERRORISM • Causes of terrorism are disputed but probably arises from a combination of factors: • Ideological e. g. IRA aims for a united Ireland. Al-Qaeda aims for Islamic caliphate by 2016 • Strategic When diplomacy breaks down or fails to deliver. IRA has political and military wings. When political pressure is insufficient terror is used. • Psychological Response to injustice, persecution, repression, poverty, deprivation, means of hitting back, taking revenge. This could also include cultural antipathy, the “clash of civilisations”.

3. Terrorist attack • Madrid Train bombing (2004) Response by the state involved • General election followed soon after bombing. Party that promised to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq was elected. Spain withdrew troops. International response • International response was mixed. Groups who had opposed the invasion of Iraq saw this terrorist attack as proof that US unilateralism and spurious justifications for the pre-emptive invasion of Iraq would only serve to fuel the passions of Islamist extremists. • On the other hand there were calls by leaders in US, UK and Australia to “stay the course” and not be intimidated into withdrawing from the war on terror.

4. TERRORIST ATTACK Rationale for attack given by terrorist(s)/group/organisation • Desire to frighten “Coalition of the Willing” states, supporting US in Iraq into withdrawing. • Al-Qaeda linked Islamist group responsible, presumably sharing ultimate goal of Islamic caliphate.

5. What makes a state a “superpower”? Factors which contribute to a state being a superpower. • Size of its economy. • Military capacity • Cultural influence • Whether it is challenged for power by other states • Perceived legitimacy. (Authority it derives from being democratic, just and supportive of human rights etc.)

6. What makes the U.S. A superpower? • MILITARYOverwhelming military might – towers over those of any other state Spends more on military than the next 5 major powers combined. Ignores the UN when it suits them • ECONOMY Has the largest economy in the world

7. LIMITATIONS ON u.s. POWER Three limitations on US power. • Limitations • US military not geared to fight non-state opponents. (asymmetrical conflict) • US doesn’t have the capacity to achieve it’s foreign policy objectives at will – needs support from others • US has limited understanding of social, cultural and political contexts of conflicts – instead they focus on military technology • West is not united in support of US. • US has to manage many competing interests. It is involved in many conflicts and is in danger of spreading its influence too thinly.

8. LIMITATIONS ON U.s. power • Harvard University’s Joe Nye commented on the US paradox of power: “the US is too great to be challenged by any other state yet not great enough to solve alone the problems such as global terrorism and nuclear proliferation”. A well-motivated, lightly armed force fighting in an unconventional way can inflict significant damage even on a superpower. Seen in: Iraq, Somalia (against clansmen), ill-equipped Taliban, al-Qaeda.

9. EXPLANATION OF THE MILITARY LIMITATION • a) US high tech weaponry might be effective in destroying major infrastructure and military targets but is not necessarily a match for a band of suicide bombers hijacking a plane armed only with pen knives! • b) US underestimated the breadth and depth of Iraqi opposition to American interference. They expected Iraqis to be universally grateful to them for removing the tyrant Saddam and to enthusiastically embrace democracy. They were wrong! • c) US has antagonised EU by not signing Kyoto or to International Criminal Court (ICC). Also, now that threat from Soviet Union has disappeared EU feels freer and less dependent on US for security. • d) The war in Iraq alone has cost $400 billion already and looks like costing a lot more. The psychological drain on the American people (2000 dead, growing anti-US sentiment, no end in sight) may also be seen as a limitation on US power.

10. NEED FOR IMPROVED DIPLOMACY • President Clinton’s Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright stated “what’s the point of having the most powerful military in the world if you don’t use it”. • This above mindset has alienated many from the U.S. • US diplomacy has been based on “you’re either with us or against us” approach – a polarising position.

11. COMPETING INTERESTS • Competing interests in so many parts of the world creates a paradox in its actions and makes it understandable why it doesn’t always succeed. e.g. In fighting war on terror, disregard for international conventions by allowing for torture of prisoners in Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay and detention for years without trial. US then loses the capacity to take the high moral ground on human rights. Also, needs China for it’s own economic development but fears it’s emerging economic power as a “strategic competitor” and a potential next superpower.

12. ECONOMIC WEAKNESSES • Share of world imports has dropped • National debt increasing • 5.7 trillion in 2000 • 9.13 trillion in 2007 • Almost 14 trillion in 2011 • Falling US dollar • Collapse of financial institutions • Funds controlled by foreign govts. used to buy significant stakes in major US banks)

13. CHANGING NATURE OF CONFLICT • Terrorism is decentralised and globalised • Cannot be fought with conventional means • No territory to take or land to occupy • No country to directly hold accountable • Target is constantly moving and growing • U.S. has realised it cannot act unilaterally and must rely on multilateralism

14. Evaluation of success of U.S. In “war on terror” since iraq invasion in 2003 • Taliban regime in Afghanistan has lost power. • Many of Al-Qaeda’s Afghan leaders have been removed. • General democratic elections were held in Afghanistan in 2005. • Pakistan (which had also harboured terrorists) is now “cooperating” with the US. • Libya has abandoned its WMD program. • Brutal dictator Saddam Hussein has been removed from power. • Western oil supplies are now more secure (since the removal of the Taliban and Saddam.) • The Kurdish people in northern Iraq now have much greater autonomy and security.

15. Cont’d... • US invasion has galvanised Islamists from many countries to fight against the US occupation of Arab lands. Iraq has become a breeding ground for international terrorism. • The Internet has become a major instrument of inspiration, recruitment and training for a new generation of Islamist militants. • The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) the joint work of 16 US agencies reported in 2006 that the Iraq war was “fuelling the spread of the jihadist movement”.

16. Cont’d... • US is also losing the “battle for hearts and minds” in the West with 36% of people in the EUs largest member states saying that the US is the greatest threat to world security. (30% of respondents cited Iran as the world’s greatest threat.) • The US (like Australia) has enacted legislation domestic anti-terrorist legislation which restricts the rights and liberties of its own citizens. This must be seen as a cost. • US has not accorded prisoners taken in the War on Terror with rights under Geneva Convention. This diminishes US standing in the international community and must be seen a negative outcome.