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Inspection / Maintenance in MOBILE6

Inspection / Maintenance in MOBILE6. A Technical Overview. Ed Glover US EPA Office of Mobile Sources. I/M Presentation Structure. General I/M Model Data and Assumptions I/M Modeling “Features” for MOBILE6 Results Shown on a Per Vehicle Basis

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Inspection / Maintenance in MOBILE6

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  1. Inspection / Maintenancein MOBILE6 A Technical Overview Ed Glover US EPA Office of Mobile Sources MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  2. I/M Presentation Structure • General I/M Model • Data and Assumptions • I/M Modeling “Features” for MOBILE6 • Results • Shown on a Per Vehicle Basis • No Overall I/M and Non I/M Inventories in units of Tons are available. • Issues and Questions MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  3. General I/M Model High Waiver Repaired Emissions (g/mi) Average Normal Mileage MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  4. General I/M Model (Continued) Before I/M (Average) Emissions (g/mi) After I/M Mileage MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  5. J C I G Emissions E B A F H D Time (in half year segments) I/M & RSD “Sawtooth” Model MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  6. J C G I/M Benefit D RSD Benefit I/M & RSD “Sawtooth” Model (Con’t) E H F MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  7. I/M Parameters • Normal Emitters (Tier0) • Generated from EPA / AAMA FTP Dataset • Vehicles less than 2x standards for HC & NOx; 3x for CO • Analysis - Linear Regression of the Data versus Mileage • High Emitters (Tier0) • Generated from EPA / AAMA FTP Dataset • Vehicles greater than 2x standards for HC & NOx; 3x for CO. • Analysis - Mean Emission Value Used - No Regression • Fraction of Highs in the Fleet. • Average Emission Level (Tier0) • Based on FTP Data and Ohio High Emitter Adjustment Factor • After Repairs (Tier0 and Tier1 Non OBD) • Generated from Arizona IM240 Test Lane Data MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  8. I/M Parameters (Con’t) • Waivers • Assumed 20 percent Emission reduction from Repairs • I/M Identification Rate (IDR) (Tier0) • I/M Test’s Ability to Identify Excess Emissions • Based on Data and Assumptions • Non Compliant Vehicles • Represents Vehicles which Disappear Prior to Completion of the I/M Process. • Full Loss of Credit • I/M Participation Rate • User Input Ranging from 0 - 100% • I/M Credit is Directly Proportional to the Participation Rate. MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  9. MOBILE6 After I/M Repair Emission Levels • Process Starts with the Arizona IM240 Database. • Assumes that the Relationship between Arizona IM240 “Passes” and Repaired Failures is the same as HRLA4 “Normals” and the HRLA4 After Repair I/M Failures. • Compute Ratio of IM240 repaired failures and IM240 “Passes” for each model year. • Ratio is smoothed and made a function of model year • Ratio is applied to the HRLA4 “Normal” emitters to compute the HRLA4 After repair emission levels. MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  10. Arizona IM240 Data Used to Determine Repair Effects MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  11. I/M (IM240) Identification Rates HC & CO General Equation: IDR = A + B*ln(HCCut) + C*ln(COCut) NOx General Equation: IDR = A + B*NOCut + C*NOCut^2 + D*NOCut^3 IM240 IDRs are based on FTP and IM240 Dataset. No IDR for NOx Start Emissions. OBD IDR = 0.9 ; Based on an Engineering Assumption IM240 IDR Approximately = 0.8 for Final Cutpoints ASM IDR = Function(IM240 IDR); Based on MOBILE5 IDLE IDRs are based on FTP and IDLE test Dataset. MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  12. Remote Sensing and Change of Ownership I/M Parameters • RSD is Based on EPA Report EPA420-R-96-004 • RSD Effectiveness is Based on EPA Testing in Arizona and RSD Testing in Sacramento • RSD Coverage • Level of Effort • Specific Level of Fleet Coverage • Number of Failures Commitment • Change of Ownership I/M • Based on Wisconsin Data • 16 % Coverage per Year MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  13. OBD Assumptions • Equal Treatment for all three pollutants • MIL-on Rate: • Ability of the OBD system to work properly. • Assumed to be 85 percent - (Based on 2X stds Highs) • No Deterioration with Mileage or Time • Motorist Response Rate to OBD Outside of I/M • Under 36,000 miles: 90 percent • Between 36,000 and 80,000 miles: 10 percent • Over 80,000 miles: 0 percent MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  14. OBD Assumptions (Con’t) • I/M Identification Rate • Ability of the OBD system to find high emitters in an I/M program. • Assumed to be 90 percent. • After I/M Repair Emission Level of OBD Failures • Assumed to be 1.5 times FTP standard. No change over time or mileage. • These are DRAFT Assumptions • EPA / FACTA Testing May Produce Revised Assumptions MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  15. New I/M Features for MOBILE6 • Internal Calculation of I/M Effects - No external I/M Credit files to attach to the main program. • I/M Reductions given for IM240, ASM, Idle and OBD programs • Custom User supplied IM240 cutpoints can be entered directly into the program. Only 207(b) Idle and Two Speed Idle cutpoints are available. • Annual, Biennial and change of ownership I/M testing frequency can be modeled. • MOBILE6 will have the ability to model up to five different I/M programs simultaneously. MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  16. New I/M Features for MOBILE6 (Con’t) • Non Periodic Identification of High Emitters by Remote Sensing can now be modeled. • Ability to model RSD Clean Screening and High Emitter Profiling exemptions. • Ability to model the exemption of the first “n” model years / ages in an I/M program. • I/M Credits given for cost waivered vehicles. • I/M Technician Training Effects are available in MOBILE6 MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  17. I/M Emission Rates Phase-in Cutpoints versus Final Cutpoints MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  18. I/M and No I/M FTP HC Emission Levels - 1988-93 PFI Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  19. I/M and No I/M FTP CO Emission Levels - 1988-93 PFI Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  20. I/M and No I/M FTP NOx Emission Levels - 1988-93 PFI Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  21. I/M Emission Rates Emission Rates with Phase-in IM240 Cutpoints Versus Phase-in ASM 2525 Cutpoints MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  22. Phase-in IM240 versus Phase-in ASM2525 for 1988-93 PFI HC Emissions MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  23. Phase-in IM240 versus Phase-in ASM2525 for 1988-93 PFI CO Emissions MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  24. Phase-in IM240 versus Phase-in ASM2525 for 1988-93 PFI NOx Emissions MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  25. I/M Emission Rates Emission Rates with OBD Only Versus Emission Rates with OBD I/M MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  26. FTP HC Emission Effect of OBD and OBD I/M on Tier1 Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  27. FTP HC Emission Effect of OBD and OBD I/M on LEV Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  28. FTP NOx Emission Effect of OBD and OBD I/M on Tier1 Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  29. FTP NOx Emission Effect of OBD and OBD I/M on LEV Cars MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  30. Comments and Issues Raised Thus Far • Basic Performance of OBD • Effectiveness at 85 percent is too Low. • Repair Level at 1.5 times Standards is too High. • Motorist Response to OBD at 10 percent and 0 percent is too LOW. • I/M Effects for programs with OBD I/M and Exhaust I/M Tests. • Average Emissions from High Emitters. • Error in the I/M Document • Function of Mileage • I/M Reductions for Non Compliant Vehicles. MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  31. Comments (Con’t) • I/M Credit for Off Cycle Emissions • Enrichment Only • A/C MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

  32. Further References • EPA Document - M6.IM.001 -“MOBILE6 Inspection / Maintenance Benefits Methodology for 1981 through 1993 Model Year Light Vehicles” MOBILE6 Workshop June 1999

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