Technology Forecasting

1. TechnologyForecasting Introduction to Technology Forecasting

2. Lecture 1 • What is Technology? • The Evolution of Technology • Technology Forecasting • Technology Forecasting Taxonomies • Objectives of Technology Forecasting • The Need for Experts • Dr. DeYong on NGT and Delphi

3. What is Technology? • There is much ambiguity in the use of the term “technology” • In one sense technology embodies the totality of the way we do things. • Webster’s 7th Collegiate Dictionary defines technology as “the totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human subsistence and comfort”.

4. What is Technology? • “Western Technology” refers to the totality of the way things are done in the Western nations of the world. • This is not the way we will use the term. • In another sense, technology has a more restricted definition • “the tools, techniques, and procedures used to accomplish some desired human purpose”. • For example, metal cutting technology or nuclear power technology.

5. What is Technology? • This more restricted definition is more suitable for our purposes. • Technology includes not only goods but also services • Technology is not restricted to hardware, it also may includes “know-how” and “software”

6. The Evolution of Technology • Prior to the 19th century • technology could be differentiated from other human activities by its direct involvement with the material world • Persons involved in technology shaped and altered their physical environment • Other forms of activities, like politics, were clearly distinguishable from technology • Technological activities did not have particularly high status; artisans were considered inferior • contemplative activities were glorified

7. The Evolution of Technology • By the end of the 19th Century • Physical sciences began to influence technology • laboratories were a source of invention • scientific grounding added credibility to technology • Science and Technology became partners to the benefit of both

8. The Evolution of Technology • During the early 20th Century • Large laboratories emerged; often they were mission oriented • Science and technology became institutionalized as a means to achieve National and corporate objectives

9. The Evolution of Technology • Post World War II • Advances in applied mathematics lead to the emergence of operations research, information theory, and systems engineering • In conjunction with the growth of computing power, the information revolution was sparked

10. The Evolution of Technology • At the end of the 20th Century • the line distinguishing technology from other activities has become blurred • technology is becoming a measure of national power • Technology leads to competitive advantage • aerospace, chemicals & plastics, petrochemicals • drugs, electronics, engines, machines, • computers, radio, tv, telecommunications

11. Technology Forecasting • Three definitions of technology forecasting from leading experts • Technology forecasting is • A group of techniques that predict the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technological advances • Vanston

12. Technology Forecasting • A prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures, or techniques • Martino • Anticipation of the character, intensity, and timing of changes in technology • Porter

13. Can Technology be Forecast? • Three rationales support the claim that technology can be forecast • Examination of the historical growth of technological capability (speed, power, etc.) shows surprisingly ordered patterns • continuity seems to be the norm • discontinuities are rare • This leads to trend extrapolation techniques

14. Can Technology be Forecast? • Technological development responds to opportunity and need • It is also sensitive to allocation of resources and social control through regulation • By monitoring influencing factors, progress can be anticipated • This leads correlation techniques

15. Can Technology be Forecast? • Understanding the process of technological innovation aids in successful prediction of technological development • Orderly progression of emergence • New knowledge acquired • Technology emerges from lab • Technology is field tested • Technology is commercialized • Technology is widely adopted

16. Technology Forecasting in Context • Technology forecasting has not attained the level of “laws” • It is still more art than science • inherent complexity of the systems • social, political, economic, ethical influences • lack of significant data bases • Experts are required

17. Technology Forecasting Taxonomies • There are multiple ways to classify technology forecasting techniques • Exploratory vs. Normative • Exploratory techniques seek to predict the state of a technology area in the future • Normative techniques seek to determine courses of action to achieve a postulated future state

18. Technology Forecasting Taxonomies • Porter, et al. suggest • Direct • directly forecast parameters of the technology • Correlative • forecast growth or change by forecasting elements in the technology’s context • Structural • formally consider interactions between the technology and its context

19. Technology Forecasting Taxonomies • Kostoff suggests: • Bibliometric or literature based methods • data mining from large databases followed by application of visualization and analysis tools • Workshop methods • groups of subject matter experts who interact under the auspices of nominal group techniques (e.g., the Delphi procedure) to develop scenarios and forecasts the evolution of technology

20. Technology Forecasting Taxonomies • Vanston suggests: • Surveillance • Passive observational techniques • Projective • Future will be like the past • Normative • future needs drive technological development • Integrative • advances are driven by relationships

21. Objectives for Technology Forecasting • The first step in a technology forecasting project is to determine the purpose the forecast is to serve. • Vanston suggests five purposes • Projections of the rates at which new technologies will replace older ones • Important to companies dependent on the old as well as the new technology

22. Objectives for Technology Forecasting • Assistance in the Management of Technical Research and Development • Forecasting the technology emergence process can facilitate allocation of R&D resources • Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology Under Development • Forecasting the commercial value of a technology in the development process

23. Objectives for Technology Forecasting • Identification and Evaluation of New Products or Processes that May Present the Organization with New Opportunities or Threats • Forecasting new business opportunities or threats to present markets

24. Objectives for Technology Forecasting • Analysis of New Technical Developments that Might Change Organizational Strategies or Operations • Forecasting technology changes that might change the internal operations of the organization itself.

25. The Need for Experts • Gathering and analyzing the opinions of experts is an important activity. • Three types of experts are valuable in technology forecasting • generalists with a spread of interests and perceptions • persons with deep knowledge of the area • persons whose present or future actions may be affected

26. What’s Next • Next, we will review some material developed by Dr. Camille DeYong, who is an expert in nominal group techniques and the Delphi process, to see how these techniques can be useful with respect to technology forecasting applications. • But First…...

27. Assignment 1 • Assignment 1 is available on the web • Identify a technology important to your business • Identify search criteria • Identify search sources • Conduct Search on at least two sources • Identify 3 key articles and 3 leading experts • Due in two weeks