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Jet Fuel Pricing Outlook and Key Drivers. Paul Cluett Global Sales Co-ordination Manager. To Cover. Oil and Jet Fuel Trends Future issues and concerns Key Drivers. World Oil Supply/Demand Balance (million b/d). Total OECD Jet Demand. Total OECD Jet Demand. OPEC Basket Price. $/bbl.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Jet Fuel Pricing Outlook and Key Drivers

Paul Cluett

Global Sales Co-ordination Manager

slide2

To Cover

  • Oil and Jet Fuel Trends
  • Future issues and concerns
  • Key Drivers
slide6

OPEC Basket Price

$/bbl

34

32

Daily Basket Price

30

28

OPEC Price Band

26

24

22

20 Day Average

20

18

Data to 25 March

16

2-

27-

25-

21-

16-

11-

6-

4-

2-

28-

23-

17-

12-

8-

5-

1-

26-

21-

16-

11-

2-

Jan-

Feb-

Apr-

Jun-

Aug-

Oct-

Dec-

Feb-

Apr-

May-

Jul-

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-

Mar-

May-

Jun-

Aug-

Oct-

Dec-

Feb-

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

02

02

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

03

03

03

04

slide7

OPEC Basket Price in Euro

Euro/bbl

34

* OPEC Price Band calculated with Euro/Dollar rate at time of OPEC Basket introduction

32

30

OPEC Price Band *

28

26

24

22

Daily Basket Price

20

20 Day Average

18

Data to 25 March

16

2-

27-

25-

21-

16-

11-

6-

4-

2-

28-

23-

17-

12-

8-

5-

1-

26-

21-

16-

11-

2-

Jan-

Feb-

Apr-

Jun-

Aug-

Oct-

Dec-

Feb-

Apr-

May-

Jul-

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-

Mar-

May-

Jun-

Aug-

Oct-

Dec-

Feb-

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

02

02

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

03

03

03

04

slide8

Selective World Jet Fuel Prices

Far East Nuclear Power Plants

Today…

Extreme Cold

Oil Price Wars

9/11

slide9

OECD Product Stocks

million b/d

1850

1999

1800

1750

1998

1700

2002

1650

2001

1600

2004

1550

2000

2003

1500

1450

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

slide10

Airline Trends

  • RPK - Revenue passenger km
  • ASK - Available seat km
  • FTK – Freight tonne km
  • ATK – Available tonne km
  • PLF – Passenger load factor
slide11

Issues and Concerns

  • Fragile Airline Finances and Airline Bankruptcies.
  • Limited Hedging cover by airlines.
  • Low Sulphur Diesel and Squeeze on Jet production.
  • Infrastructure and Investment.
  • Environmental developments.
  • Tax.
  • Deregulation & New competition.
  • Airport congestion and slots.
slide12

Key Drivers of Jet Fuel Pricing

  • Jet Price levels – High at present
  • will they continue at current levels?.
  • No more shocks Sars/Iraqi etc.
  • Supply Security.
  • Low stocks & refinery reliability.
  • Better Demand Forecasting.
  • Passenger Confidence.