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The Demand Forecast and Conservation Analysis Interface. May 16 2008 PNREC Massoud Jourabchi & Tom Eckman. Why Interface Matters?. Over estimation of conservation potential Capturing proper interaction between demand forecast and conservation resource

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The demand forecast and conservation analysis interface l.jpg

The Demand Forecast and Conservation Analysis Interface

May 16 2008

PNREC

Massoud Jourabchi

&

Tom Eckman


Why interface matters l.jpg
Why Interface Matters?

  • Over estimation of conservation potential

    • Capturing proper interaction between demand forecast and conservation resource

    • Capturing Price driven Conservation Effects

    • Capturing Take-back effects

2


Council s power planning process l.jpg

Demand Forecasting System

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Irrigation

Fuel Price

Forecasts

Total Electricity Use

Conservation

Programs and

Costs

Electricity

Price

Supply - Demand Balance

Generating

Resources and

Costs

Resource Supply

(Cost and Amount)

Council’s Power Planning Process

Economic &

Demographic

Forecasts

3



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Major Factors Influencing Demand

  • Long-term factors

    • Economic Activity

    • Energy Prices

    • Technology choices

    • Socio-economic changes

  • Short-term factors

    • Weather

5


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Basic Building Blocks of long-term Forecasting Model

For each enduse in each sector consumption is determined in part by:

  • Number of Units (A)

  • Fuel efficiency choices (B)

  • Fuel choice (C)

    Energy use by an enduse = A * B * C

6


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Number of Units (A)

  • Driven by the economic forecast

    • Number of Existing home

    • Number of New Homes ( Single, Multi, Manuf.)

    • Square footage of existing commercial buildings

    • Square footage of new commercial buildings

    • Level of production from industrial, agricultural and mining firms

  • Source of information

  • Review process: by State economists and Demand Forecasting Advisory Committee

7


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Fuel Efficiency Choices (B)

Efficiency/capital cost trade-off.

Trade-off between high up-front costs and high operating cost.

Source of information: Various sources and studies (LBL, DOE,…)

Review process : Demand Forecast Advisory Group and In-house

8


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Residential Hot Water Heating Efficiency Curve

Baseline

2.0 GPM Showerhead

Tank Insulation

Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 1.8)

Heat Pump Water Heater

Energy Star Dishwasher (EF65)

Wastewater Heat Recovery

Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 2.0)

Energy Star Dishwasher (EF68)

9


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Fuel Choice (C)

Customer trading off one fuel for another on the basis of

relative cost of fuels, factors considered include:

  • Capital Cost

  • Operation and maintenance cost

  • Non-price factors such as customer preference for one fuel over another

    Source of Information:

  • EIA for Historic fuel prices,

  • Utility, NEEA Surveys of customer choices

  • Calibration of actual demand 1985-2005

    Review process: Demand Forecast Advisory Group

  • 10


    Slide11 l.jpg

    $ / kWh

    $ / therm

    Therms / gallon hot water

    kWh / gallon hot water

    Gallons per day Hot Water

    Gallons per day Hot Water

    Number of Gas Water Heaters

    Number of Electric Water Heaters

    11


    Illustrative example demand from water heating in new homes l.jpg
    Illustrative Example Demand from Water Heating in New Homes

    Electric water heaters demand in new homes is calculated as:

    • (A) Number of new single family homes: 20,000/yr

    • (B) Electricity Efficiency: 0.90 Energy Factor = 3600 kWh/yr

    • (c) Market share of electric water heaters: 69%

      Electricity Demand from New water heaters in new homes

    • 20,000*3600*.69 ~ 49,680 MWH ~ 5.67 MWa

      Similar approach is used for existing homes. Existing homes are tracked over-time and the energy use is reduced each year based on the physical life of the device (i.e., as existing units fail, they are replaced with units meeting federal minimum efficiency standards).

    12


    How conservation supply curve for water heating is created l.jpg
    How Conservation Supply Curve for Water Heating is Created

    The three factors (A, B and C) are provided to Procost model

    • Conservation supply curve estimation starts from the base use and moves along the efficiency-cost trade-off curve.

    • Conservation potential for various points along the curve are estimated in a similar fashion to the forecasted demand calculations.

    13


    Residential hot water heating dwelling unit supply curve l.jpg
    Residential Hot Water Heating Dwelling Unit Supply Curve

    Wastewater Heat Recovery

    Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 2.0)

    Energy Star Dishwasher (EF68)

    Energy Star Dishwasher (EF 65)

    Heat Pump Water Heater

    Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 1.8)

    Tank Insulation

    2.0 GPM Showerhead

    Cost-Effectiveness

    Limit

    14


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    Demand Forecast, Conservation supply & Resource Optimization

    • Frozen-efficiency Forecast and the Conservation supply curves consistent with the forecast is provided to Portfolio model

    • In the Portfolio model, load forecast is subjected to 750 different futures and optimum level of conservation acquisition as well as other resource options is determined.

    • The optimum conservation level is fed back to the demand forecast model

    • A new Sales forecast reflecting impact of conservation targets and costs is produced.

    15


    Demand forecast and conservation interface l.jpg
    Demand forecast and Conservation Interface

    • Demand Forecast

    • Price effect

    • Frozen efficiency

    • Sales

    Conservation

    Potential

    Assessment

    Model

    Frozen Eff. Usage & units

    Cost-effective Cons.

    Frozen

    Eff. Load

    Conservation

    Supply

    Curves

    Optimum

    Conservation

    Targets

    Resource Portfolio Optimization Model

    Other Supply Resource Options

    16