Climate Versus the Economy: What's the Right Trade-off?

1. Climate Versus the Economy: What's the Right Trade-off? Bruce M. Everett The Fletcher School October 16, 2008

2. The climate change argument has two components

3. How well do we understand the issue?

4. How hard is it to reduce global carbon emissions?

5. A simple test of scientific knowledge Drop a golf ball from a height of 1 meter. Specify location, air pressure, humidity, wind and rotation. Ask 100 scientists how long it will take the ball to hit the floor. Their answers would be identical: 0.45 seconds. Falsifiable experiments tell us that standard gravity is 9.80665 m/sec2. Science = quantification

6. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize • Done an excellent literature review • But do they agree on climate science?

7. IPCC Scenario A1B Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology Global Surface Warming (ºC)

8. IPCC Scenario A1B Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology Global Surface Warming (ºC) Lowest model run (+1.7° C)

9. IPCC Scenario A1B Highest model run (+4.4° C) Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology Global Surface Warming (ºC) Lowest model run (+1.7° C)

10. IPCC Scenario A1B Highest model run (+4.4° C) Averaging inconsistent results is an opinion, not science. Stop agreeing and start arguing! “Consensus” (+2.8° C) Global Surface Warming (ºC) Lowest model run (+1.7° C)

11. With all due respect to Al Gore, the scientific debate about climate change is not over.

12. How difficult is it to reduce global carbon emissions?

13. Other devel China Billion metric tons per year FSU/EE Other OECD US Projected global CO2 emissions Source: EIA

14. No government has indicated any willingness to sacrifice economic growth for carbon reduction.

15. International cooperation is a MYTH • The Kyoto Protocol creates five groups: • Developing countries with rights but no obligations. • Russia/Eastern Europe, whose post-1990 economic collapse is treated as energy efficiency. • Germany/UK, who had met their targets before they signed the treaty. • The rest of the EU, Japan, Canada and Australia who have targets but won’t meet them. • The US, which sensibly declined to participate.

16. +20% Other devel Billion metric tons per year China FSU/EE Other OECD If US emissions in 2030 were zero, global emissions would still be 20% above 2005. Source: EIA

17. What steps should the US take to reduce carbon emissions?

18. 2005 carbon emissions = 6,000 MMt Million metric tons per year of CO2 Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

19. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 2008 auto standards Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

20. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Green Office Buildings Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

21. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 +20 nuclear plants Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

22. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 15% renewable standard Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

23. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Fluorescent light bulbs Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

24. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 10-fold increase in public transportation Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

25. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Replace all refrigerators Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

26. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 20 million new solar roofs Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

27. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Reduce driving by 30 miles per month Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

28. 6,000 Projected increase in US by 2030 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

29. 6,000 Million metric tons per year of CO2 Projected increase in China by 2030. Steps to reduce US carbon emissions

30. Both Presidential candidates agree… • Frighten the public with scary scenarios. • Take immediate actions which have: • High profile • Low-cost • Negligible impact. • Promise strong action in the distant future. • Participate in unproductive international negotiations. • Congratulate themselves on their vision. • Hope the public buys it.

31. What we should do • Study climate change and portray the results honestly. • Acknowledge the high cost of reducing CO2. • Look at a 100-year, not a 30-year horizon. • Make meaningful promises and keep them. • Privatize and deregulate electric power. • Remove constraints on natural gas. • Find new domestic supplies • Facilitate international trade • Revive the civilian nuclear power industry. • Encourage privatesectorresearch.