Trying to detect early weak signals in order to prevent or anticipate crises

1. Trying to detect early weak signals in order to prevent or anticipate crises The Paris experiment City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

2. Weak signal ? • a clue to anticipate a crisis • generally not relevant (obvious) by itself • Must transmitted immediately and never ignored • must be analyzed, confirmed (by immediate investigations and by crossing it with others data) City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

3. From problems to experiment The analyze of problems encountered during past crises in Paris (and crises in other cities or countries) has led the City of Paris crises management team to propose the settling of a double system to detect weak signals and collect early warning cues City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

4. Two examples of failure (1) • Ignored weak signals : the case of Perret school in Paris. • Ground collapse on 17/02/2003 • « light crisis » because of zero deaths, but it could have been terrible if children were in classroom when it occurred City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

5. What happened: hierarchical transmission failure… City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

6. What should have been done City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

7. Two exemples of failure (2) • Ignored early warning signal the case of 2003 heat wave City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

8. What happened: improper destination of information… Pollution warning High temperature prevision City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

9. What should have been done Pollution warning Heat wave warning (municipal staff in charge of senior citizen, children) City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

10. We try to settle a double system (1) • The Paris Crises early indicators Observatory (Observatoire des Indicateurs Précoces de Crise - OIPC) • Gather data from all city departments • Cross and analyze them to forecast abnormal situation • Is a Crises Management Department unit City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

11. Gathering data Analyzing and reporting Giving back synthesis to data providers (interactivity) The Paris Crises early indicators Observatory City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

12. We try to settle a double system (2) • The Weak Signals Detection Network (Réseau de Détection des Signaux Faibles – REDESIP) : a network of municipal experts able to • receive weak signals notification directly from on-line city staff in local implantations (schools, kindergarten, sport halls…)  no hierarchical transmission but direct transmission • analyze their pertinence • Evaluate the need to warn of a crisis potentiality City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

13. From detection to analyze: weak signals detection network In situ « Watcher » (in schools…) Weak signal Weak signal notification phone or fax (special number) Crises Management Department e-mail No relevant Experts group Watch Alert Municipal Authorities City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05

14. Will it work ? • A period test is necessary to evaluate those systems (ability, liability, sensibility, saturation, reaction capacity…) • Will only work with • political support • means allocation • civil servants support at all levels (usefulness conviction and implication) • Pertinence of those system will depend on the type of crisis • That anticipation system is only a component of the municipal crisis management system toolbox • The future will tell us… City of Paris - SETRIC - Workshop 1 Prevention - Naevsted 26-27/05/05