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Institution of Engineers Pakistan, Rawalpindi - Islamabad Centre, 17 th Dec, 2011

Institution of Engineers Pakistan, Rawalpindi - Islamabad Centre, 17 th Dec, 2011 ENERGY MANAGEMENT - SOLUTIONS & CHALLENGES By Engr Arjumund A. Shaikh AKTS Consultants Group - World Bank Former Member Technical - NTC Board Ministry of IT & Telecom ,

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Institution of Engineers Pakistan, Rawalpindi - Islamabad Centre, 17 th Dec, 2011

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  1. Institution of Engineers Pakistan, Rawalpindi - Islamabad Centre, 17th Dec, 2011 ENERGY MANAGEMENT - SOLUTIONS & CHALLENGES By EngrArjumund A. Shaikh AKTS Consultants Group - World Bank Former Member Technical - NTC Board Ministry of IT & Telecom, akts@aktelekom.com, www.aktelekom.com Ph:92 51 2652121, Cell: 92 300 8552729

  2. EM Structure – Packages 17-12-2011 (arjumund) • Energy Scenario • Scenario & Perception on Energy crisis • Root causes of Crisis ( Linked Energy Saving solutions) • Energy Management (EM) • Energy Sustainability: • Sustainability Objectivew.r.t Role of Building codes • Energy Savings Potential Identification: Major Sectors • Building Management system(BMS) & Saving Measures • Energy Saving in Industry & Assessment Methodology • Energy efficient Technologies-Pakistan potential • Key Challenges in RET • Energy Solutions (short term & Long terms) • “Climate Change” Global impact on Energy? • Panel Discussion

  3. 1.EXISTING SCENARIO & Our Perception about Cash Bleeding Energy Industry

  4. INSTALLED CAPACITY

  5. Sector wise Consumption (i) Energy Consumption: • Industrial Sector: 29.1% • Agricultural Sector : 14.3% • Commercial Sector: 5.5 % • Government Sector: 7.4% • House hold : 44.2% (ii)Cost per Kwh in Rupees from: Terbala: 0.71, Ghazi Broatha: 1.16, Basha: 4.95 Rental: 16+

  6. Worldwide Oil Reserves-- WorldEnergy Book • Peak of oil production expected: 2010-2030. • World oil economic depletion: 2035-2084 • BUT: Oil use is growing: 18%

  7. Energy Crisis Reasons & Root causes • Financial Constraints • Strategic Planning and Technical Failures • Lack of Investments Solution through Energy Management

  8. Cash bleeding Sector: FINANCAIL • Excessive Line Losses/Y: RS 40 B • Loss due to Slow Bill Recovery/Y: RS 80 B • Late Payment Surcharge to IPP/M:RS 24 B • Fuel adjustment Charge Loss/Y: RS 24 B • Decrease supply of Gas to P. H/Y: RS 72 B • Soaring Circular debt: RS 300 B • PSO Arrears: RS 165 B • No heed to recover outstanding: RS 300 BRS 1000B

  9. TECHNICAL: Poor Planning 1. Short GasSupply to Power/ Industry : (Reported) • Power sector ( IPP &Nuclear): 28% (against 43%) • Industry: 26% (against 39%) • Fertilizers: 14% • Domestic: 17% 2. GAS Short fall: • Unaccounted for Gas (UFG) Pipe Loss increased to 26%; • Gas surcharge : not spent on Infra- Development; • Foreign Investment declined: Decrease in supplies; 3. GAS Crisis in Textile Industry means: • Rs 8 B /year TAXdecrease ; • Currency printing for Economy: increased inflation; • $14 B Export, $15 B Jobs at Stake-; (Industry priority)

  10. TECHNICAL: cont -- • Resource exploitation- Poor Planning : • ENERGY POTENTIAL: (Nepra site) • Hydel Potential: 48,000 MW( India 35%, SriLanka 60%, Pak 16%) slide • Coal Potential : 20,000 MW ( China 70%, India 56%, Pak 0.11 %) slide • Nuclear Energy: 8,8000 MW ( 690 MW) • Wind power Potential: 346,000 MW ( 170 MW against 2850 MW by 2015) • Solar Power Potential: 2.9 Million MW ( 80 MW against 1600 MW by 2015) • Non Implementation of Long Term Power Generation (Rental Power) • Low water levels , Dams De-silting, Water for irrigation, Stolen water etc • Mismanagement: (Nandipur & Chhichokimalian ) • Load Survey-Industry, A/C,T-wells Demand Forecast (14%) ; • High transmission & Electric Distribution Losses; • Dormant : Energy Conservation/Saving(Ration, Rotation); • Incompetency: Lacking decisions, Administrative Lethargyslide • Imbalance in Energy Mix (Priorities); slide

  11. National Energy priorities-Indicators

  12. 2. ENERGY MANAGEMENT

  13. Energy Management-Statement Various studies recommend that Energy sector be driven by two policy considerations: (i) Energy efficiency and (ii) good governance. This objective is met by improvements in energy efficiency and energy efficient technologies that minimize adverse impacts on the environment; • Definition: It is a Program to rationalize energy use, reduce consumption, cut energy costs & carbon emissions and ensure implementation; • Watt” saved is a “Watt” generated, Better, to much cheaper to save, than to generate a “Watt”; • This means to identifying the areas of wasteful use of Energy & taking steps to reduce the waste to a bare minimum.

  14. Sustainable Industrial & Commercial Buildings Conservation Program

  15. ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL- Enercon • Building: 30% • Industry : 25% • Agriculture: 20% • Transport: 30% On Average 26% • Achievable saving for Pakistan estimated through EE/EC: Over $ 3.2 Billion / year (E.M .Program features )

  16. Building Management System (BMS) • BMS is an energy efficient Web-based platform Building system to provide: • Integration: Geographically dispersed sites with one N/W • Intelligent integration: HVAC, Access Control, CCTV, Lighting, Energy Management subsystems etc  • Acknowledge and review alarms with alarm processing and routing, e-mail paging etc • Serve platform for N/Ws control, monitoring, alarming, database and log management of all building functions  • Serve cost-effective infrastructure for convergence with IT networks (Smart Building)

  17. .

  18. Building Codes-greatest potential Building codes cover Energy efficiency aspects of Buildings: • Heating, Ventilation, air-conditioning(HVAC) subsystem • Lighting, Insulation, Glazing subsystem • Power and distribution subsystem • Pumping subsystems. • Energy, Domestic Appliances & Security Standards • Benefits of Energy Codes practices : • Assists in Energy Saving/ Conservation, Lowers Energy Bills of users • Helps Save investment in Power generation • Extends equipment life and reduces Maintenance cost • Carbon Credits Claims: due emission reduction from Conservation • Beneficial to National Budget and Economy • Based on aboveconsiderations &abnormallyhigh losses, the answer does not lie in increasing supply but from better Energy management- to deliver more at Lower cost; • Buildings,Consumer behaviour and transport offer the greatest potential for energy efficiency (EE)

  19. ENERGY MANAGEMENT – Energy Audit • Energy Management(EM) Policy: provides sense of direction to the Program and fixes Energy standards of Manufacturing, System performance and Environments; • Methodology: Conducting Energy performance Audit and Framework of Recommendations for energy efficiency ; • Monitoring: It is foundation On which EM is built by interviewing, Examining energy profile, usage, energy costs, M/c load, Data col • Training & Motivating Staff: Energy awareness and change in attitude and behavior. Education is Keys to the success to EM; • Benchmarking: Means to Fixing indicators of Energy, Buildings, Environment, Industry/Industry services, Domestic Appliances; • Reporting: Briefing, Recommendations,Implementation, Review; • Analysis: E.M is continuous process of improvement performance, targets to be regularly evaluated.

  20. ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN

  21. Typical Energy Saving Areas: in Industrial Sector • Energy Savings and Electric Motors, HVAC Controls • Energy Savings and Compressed Air Systems • Energy Savings and Steam Generation • Boilers • Energy Savings in Steam Distribution Systems • Energy Savings and Furnaces • Energy Savings Through Heat Recovery • Energy Savings Through Cogeneration • Industry Regulatory Measures, producing Energy Saving: • energy performance standards • building codes for the New Buildings • Regulatory environment conditions (CO2 )

  22. Problems identified-Energy Audit • Absence of Energy Management systems, • Lack of top management commitment, • Energy performance codes for Equipment- (compressors, cooling, towers, boilers, pumps and fans) • Lack of awareness about savings potential, • Lack of data, and problems of benchmarking. • Shortage of quality energy professionals. • Training in Energy efficient Program initiatives • Realization of Potential Savings

  23. 3. ENERGY EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES (RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY)

  24. The Need for Renewable Energy Projected Depletion of Current Fuels • OIL Reserves –41 Years • Natural Gas –40 Years • Coal –164 Years

  25. RENEWABLE ENERGY • Solar • Wind Mills • Biogas • Geothermal • Wave Energy • Biomass • Bio fuel • Hydropower

  26. Solar PV –Status Potential of Renewable Energy:10,000 MW Solar installed (for lighting & water pumping ):200 • Capacity varies bet: 200–500 W. • Total PV generation capacity: 80 kW. • Number of Solar water heaters:100

  27. AEDB RESOLVE

  28. Wind Energy • 40% of the Wind resource is in UK • China Number One in Wind • Wind Power Potential:50,000 MW • Wind turbine capacity: 0.5-1.5kw Issues: Land, Storage, Maint, Availablity • Types of wind turbine: -Horizontal axis Turbines -Vertical Axis Turbines • Wind turbines installed : 1300 (for 430 Coastal houses)

  29. AEDB & PCRET-Biogas (i) Number of Biogas cook stoves distributed by PCRET with annual financial savings of fuel wood worth of Rs. 86 million (US$ 1 million): 90,000. (ii) Number of Biogas plants installed, for meeting domestic fuel needs of households: 1600 Plants • Number of Plants installed by AEDB : 1,200 for domestic needs in the rural area of the Punjab province. • Capacity of bet 5-15 cubic meters per day. • Annual biogas generation capacity: 2.5 million m3. • Foundation for Integrated Development Action (FIDA) & RSPN constructed : 2047 • Initiative for Rural and Sustainable Development (IRSD) & UNSP: 150

  30. 4. KEY CHALLANGES In Renewable Energy Technologies

  31. CHALLENGES: RET (a) Well defined Renewable Energy policy (b) No technical and Quality standards (c) Cash Flow and funds Availability on target; (d) Non-operational One window : Site availability, administrative lethargy, delays in approvals; (e) Training needs, capacity building of Stakeholders ; (f) Community participation with overall responsibility supported by well equipped Workshop for O& M; (g) Absence of Regulatory Authority for RET (h) Pilot projects a model for launching a larger program; –RE Tariffs and Feed-in tariffs, – Tax, Carbon credits, Import duties Sales tax, – Creation of Renewable energy funds and R&D (I)Lack of political will and EE incentives-greatest barriers .

  32. 5. ENERGY SOLUTIONS (SHORT & LONG TERMS)

  33. Short Term solution/measures • Capacity utilization by Overhauling & Capacity addition; • Energy Mix Policy Focus: Coal, Hydel and Renewable Energy • Encourage Investment: Law N order improvement; • Energy Policy: Investment friendly/ Power supply Priority/ incentives to users/ low interest finances & Access to credit to farmers/ Competent Professionals/Private sector Participation/ Awareness campaign etc; • Top most Priority: Renewable Energy Technologies • Energy efficiency /Saving Measures: Legislation needed LongTerm solution/Measures • Coal reserve (33 Trillion tons) & HydelEnergy Exploitation • Rehabilitation of outdated Transmission & distribution • Infrastructure Augmentation/Upgrading and Development • Better Urban Planning and Deployment of Transport • Government’s creditability & Agencies facilitation

  34. Costs of Climate Change: Impact on Energy World Bank Studies reveal that: • 40% of development aid investment is at risk from climate change • Humanitarian costs could rise by 200% by 2015 • “Weather disasters” could cost as much as a trillion dollars in a single year- by 2040 • Projects Review cost of climate change estimates to be between 5-20% of global GDP;

  35. CPD PROPSED PROGRAM- SERIES 2012 • Engineering Project Management • Change Management and Organization Development • Project Human Resource Management • Total Quality Management • Project Scheduling Techniques • Environmental Impact Assessment • Interpersonal Communication Skills for Engineers • Disaster Management: Role of ICTs • Renewable Energy alternatives- Way forward • Renewable Energy Resources-Road to sustainable Growth • Meeting the Energy demands-Viable options • Promotion of Renewable Energy Technologies through Private sector participation • Energy Efficient solutions-Way forward • Overview of Bio-Energy

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