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International and European Tourism: Recent trends and outlook by Luigi Cabrini, WTO Regional Representative for Europe VIVATTUR 2005 3-5 March 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania World Tourism Organization (WTO) www.world-tourism.org 2004, best growth in 20 years

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slide1

International and European Tourism:

Recent trends and outlook

by Luigi Cabrini, WTO Regional Representative for Europe

VIVATTUR 2005

3-5 March 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania

World Tourism Organization(WTO)www.world-tourism.org

slide2

2004, best growth in 20 years

  • 760 million international tourist arrivals = +10%
  • biggest increase since 1984
  • + 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003

Source: World Tourism Organization

evolution of international tourism 2004
Evolution of International Tourism 2004

760 million international tourist arrivals in 2004

+ 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003 (+10%)

+ 57 million as compared to 2002 (+8%)

Best ever results in

all months

Projection based on monthly data of the WTO World Tourism Barometer

Source: World Tourism Organization

evolution of international tourism 2003 2004
Evolution of International Tourism, 2003-2004

2003

2004

Projection based on monthly data of WTO World Tourism Barometer

Source: World Tourism Organization

world tourism an excellent 2004
Except Americas, all other regions with results above the 2000 level;

strong rebound in Asia and the Pacific over depressed 2003 figures, but still with an increase of 17% over 2002 values;

return of the Americas to the positive track after 3 depressed years due to the recovery in North America;

traffic distribution influenced by exchange rate factor;

same growth trend expected in tourism receipts

World Tourism- an excellent 2004
slide6

International Tourism 2004,

finally all regions are positive

Source: World Tourism Organization

slide7

Europe

+ 16 million

arrivals

23%

Middle East

Asia and the

+ 6 million

Pacific

9%

49%

arrivals

+ 34 million

arrivals

3%

Africa

+ 2 million

arrivals

16%

Americas

+ 11 million

arrivals

Where have the new arrivals gone to?

Worldwide 69 million new arrivals

Source: World Tourism Organization

world tourism an excellent 20048
World Tourism- an excellent 2004
  • Asia and the Pacific: full recovery from the losses of

SARS; extraordinary rebound in North-East and

South-East Asia (China, Rep. of Korea, Singapore,

Malaysia, etc);continuous good performance of tourism

in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka)

  • Americas: finally positive after 3 years on the negative

side; positive results in all subregions; the so-long expected

growth in the North materialize; Central and South America

with double-digit growth;

world tourism an excellent 20049
World Tourism- an excellent 2004
  • Europe: region which grew the least but positive the

third year in a row and from a strong baseline; strong

performance of Central and Eastern Europe and Northern

Europe; lower than average growth in Western and

Southern / Mediterranean Europe

  • Africa: positive performance of North Africa and slowdown

in the growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa on the impact of a

stronger rand

  • Middle East: continuous expansion based mainly in

intra-regional tourism; the region takes the position of Africa

as the 4th most visited destination worldwide

where is the market going
highest world economic growth since 1976;

sustained economic recovery in major generating markets (USA, Europe and Japan);

impact of external shocks fades away;

exchange rate as major factor in overall traffic distribution;

gradual revival of long-haul markets;

rebound in air traffic;

consumer confidence is up again and has not been damaged by recent tragic events.

Where is the market going?
slide11

Mid-term Tourism market features

Growth of demand for last minute travel

Shorter holidays and their fragmentation

Segmentation of demand

Price sensitivity/Rapid growth of budget airlines

More senior and youth tourists

More individual travel

europe trend by subregion
Europe - trend by subregion

Source: World Tourism Organization

slide14

Northern Europe

Southern /

+ 3 million

Mediterranean

20%

Europe

27%

+ 4 million

20%

33%

Western Europe

Central and

+ 3 million

Eastern Europe

+ 5 million

Where have the new arrivals gone to?

Europe 16 million new arrivals

Source: World Tourism Organization

exchange rates shift destination choice
Exchange rates shift destination choice

2004:

$ 1 = € 0.80

€ 1 = $ 1.24

2002:

$ 1 = € 1.06

€ 1 = $ 0.95

Source: World Tourism Organization

slide16

Exchange rates shift destination choice

Outbound => => => => => Inbound

slide18

Long-Haul Retrieve in Europe

Source: World Tourism Organization

international tourism outlook 2005
Estimated 5% growth in international tourist arrivalsInternational Tourism: Outlook 2005
  • world economic growth (+4.3%);
  • sustained economic growth in major generating

markets;

  • short-term and limited effect of the tragic events in the

Indian Ocean;

  • decrease effect of external shocks;
  • consumer confidence is up;
  • back to the focus on “tourism” internal competitive

factors.

slide20
Objective: monitoring short term evolution of worlwide tourism

Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October)

Three permanent elements:

Short term tourism data (arrivals, receipts and expenditure)

WTO Panel of Tourism Experts

Economic data relevant for tourism

WTO World Tourism Barometer

wto world tourism barometer
WTO World Tourism Barometer

Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

worse

Source: World Tourism Organization

slide22
Asia and the Pacific: economic dynamism / China outbound market / India also “to watch”/ decreased border control / air capacity expansion / intraregional traffic;

Outlook 2005: major trends by regions

  • Americas:revival of US outbound / weak USD /

revival of Argentina and Brazil / strong flow to

Central and South America and the Caribbean;

slide23
Europe: sustained economic growth/ strong euro / EU enlargement effect / gradual return of traffic from USA and Japan and good expectations over China;

Outlook 2005 - Major trends by regions

  • Africa:competitive price advantage in the North /

Subsaharan Africa much dependent on South Africa

performance (strong rand);

  • Middle East:strong bet in tourism / intraregional

traffic/significant increase in air capacity.

wto world tourism barometer24
WTO World Tourism Barometer

Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

worse

Source: World Tourism Organization

slide25

International Tourism in Lithuania

2004 Data:

+38% arrivals up to September TCE (1)

+ 19% receipts up to September

International Tourist Arrivals (2003)

  • 1,5 million= +4% over 2002
  • 2% share inCentral / Eastern Europevs 1% in 1995
  • 11%average growth 1995-2003

International Tourism Receipts (2003)

  • euro 564 million = +6% over 2002
  • 3% share inCentral/ Eastern Europevs 0.4% in 1995
  • average receipts per arrival : euro 378 (vs euro 291 in Central / Eastern Europe)

Source: WTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department

(1) Tourist arrivals at all accommodation establishments

slide26

Lithuania’s tourism strengths

European Union membership

Good and accessible location (proximity to major generating markets)

Rich heritage and living rural lifestyles and traditions

High hospitality and service standards

A climate of safety and security

A wide range of tourism products

Excellent gastronomy

Dynamic investment in tourism infrastructure

slide27

Thank you for your attention!

www.world-tourism.org