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International and European Tourism: Recent trends and outlook

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  1. International and European Tourism: Recent trends and outlook by Luigi Cabrini, WTO Regional Representative for Europe VIVATTUR 2005 3-5 March 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania World Tourism Organization(WTO)www.world-tourism.org

  2. 2004, best growth in 20 years • 760 million international tourist arrivals = +10% • biggest increase since 1984 • + 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003 Source: World Tourism Organization

  3. Evolution of International Tourism 2004 760 million international tourist arrivals in 2004 + 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003 (+10%) + 57 million as compared to 2002 (+8%) Best ever results in all months Projection based on monthly data of the WTO World Tourism Barometer Source: World Tourism Organization

  4. Evolution of International Tourism, 2003-2004 2003 2004 Projection based on monthly data of WTO World Tourism Barometer Source: World Tourism Organization

  5. Except Americas, all other regions with results above the 2000 level; strong rebound in Asia and the Pacific over depressed 2003 figures, but still with an increase of 17% over 2002 values; return of the Americas to the positive track after 3 depressed years due to the recovery in North America; traffic distribution influenced by exchange rate factor; same growth trend expected in tourism receipts World Tourism- an excellent 2004

  6. International Tourism 2004, finally all regions are positive Source: World Tourism Organization

  7. Europe + 16 million arrivals 23% Middle East Asia and the + 6 million Pacific 9% 49% arrivals + 34 million arrivals 3% Africa + 2 million arrivals 16% Americas + 11 million arrivals Where have the new arrivals gone to? Worldwide 69 million new arrivals Source: World Tourism Organization

  8. World Tourism- an excellent 2004 • Asia and the Pacific: full recovery from the losses of SARS; extraordinary rebound in North-East and South-East Asia (China, Rep. of Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, etc);continuous good performance of tourism in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka) • Americas: finally positive after 3 years on the negative side; positive results in all subregions; the so-long expected growth in the North materialize; Central and South America with double-digit growth;

  9. World Tourism- an excellent 2004 • Europe: region which grew the least but positive the third year in a row and from a strong baseline; strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe and Northern Europe; lower than average growth in Western and Southern / Mediterranean Europe • Africa: positive performance of North Africa and slowdown in the growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa on the impact of a stronger rand • Middle East: continuous expansion based mainly in intra-regional tourism; the region takes the position of Africa as the 4th most visited destination worldwide

  10. highest world economic growth since 1976; sustained economic recovery in major generating markets (USA, Europe and Japan); impact of external shocks fades away; exchange rate as major factor in overall traffic distribution; gradual revival of long-haul markets; rebound in air traffic; consumer confidence is up again and has not been damaged by recent tragic events. Where is the market going?

  11. Mid-term Tourism market features Growth of demand for last minute travel Shorter holidays and their fragmentation Segmentation of demand Price sensitivity/Rapid growth of budget airlines More senior and youth tourists More individual travel

  12. What about Europe ??????

  13. Europe - trend by subregion Source: World Tourism Organization

  14. Northern Europe Southern / + 3 million Mediterranean 20% Europe 27% + 4 million 20% 33% Western Europe Central and + 3 million Eastern Europe + 5 million Where have the new arrivals gone to? Europe 16 million new arrivals Source: World Tourism Organization

  15. Exchange rates shift destination choice 2004: $ 1 = € 0.80 € 1 = $ 1.24 2002: $ 1 = € 1.06 € 1 = $ 0.95 Source: World Tourism Organization

  16. Exchange rates shift destination choice Outbound => => => => => Inbound

  17. Long-Haul Retrieve in Europe Source: World Tourism Organization

  18. Estimated 5% growth in international tourist arrivals International Tourism: Outlook 2005 • world economic growth (+4.3%); • sustained economic growth in major generating markets; • short-term and limited effect of the tragic events in the Indian Ocean; • decrease effect of external shocks; • consumer confidence is up; • back to the focus on “tourism” internal competitive factors.

  19. Objective: monitoring short term evolution of worlwide tourism Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October) Three permanent elements: Short term tourism data (arrivals, receipts and expenditure) WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Economic data relevant for tourism WTO World Tourism Barometer

  20. WTO World Tourism Barometer Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse Source: World Tourism Organization

  21. Asia and the Pacific: economic dynamism / China outbound market / India also “to watch”/ decreased border control / air capacity expansion / intraregional traffic; Outlook 2005: major trends by regions • Americas:revival of US outbound / weak USD / revival of Argentina and Brazil / strong flow to Central and South America and the Caribbean;

  22. Europe: sustained economic growth/ strong euro / EU enlargement effect / gradual return of traffic from USA and Japan and good expectations over China; Outlook 2005 - Major trends by regions • Africa:competitive price advantage in the North / Subsaharan Africa much dependent on South Africa performance (strong rand); • Middle East:strong bet in tourism / intraregional traffic/significant increase in air capacity.

  23. WTO World Tourism Barometer Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse Source: World Tourism Organization

  24. International Tourism in Lithuania 2004 Data: +38% arrivals up to September TCE (1) + 19% receipts up to September International Tourist Arrivals (2003) • 1,5 million= +4% over 2002 • 2% share inCentral / Eastern Europevs 1% in 1995 • 11%average growth 1995-2003 International Tourism Receipts (2003) • euro 564 million = +6% over 2002 • 3% share inCentral/ Eastern Europevs 0.4% in 1995 • average receipts per arrival : euro 378 (vs euro 291 in Central / Eastern Europe) Source: WTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department (1) Tourist arrivals at all accommodation establishments

  25. Lithuania’s tourism strengths European Union membership Good and accessible location (proximity to major generating markets) Rich heritage and living rural lifestyles and traditions High hospitality and service standards A climate of safety and security A wide range of tourism products Excellent gastronomy Dynamic investment in tourism infrastructure

  26. Thank you for your attention! www.world-tourism.org