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A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURE News is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a social experience Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Knight-McCormick Leadership Institute 7.29.10 The internet is the change agent Then and now 2000 46% of adults use internet

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slide1

A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURENews is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a social experienceLee RainieDirector – Pew Internet ProjectKnight-McCormick Leadership Institute7.29.10

slide2

The internet is the change agent Thenand now

2000

46% of adults use internet

5% with broadband at home

50% own a cell phone

0% connect wirelessly

<10% use “cloud”

0% = tech social networkers

THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my computer

2010

79% of adults use internet

66% have broadband at home

82% own a cell phone

59% connect wirelessly

>two-thirds use “cloud”

48% = tech social networkers

NOW: faster, mobile connections built around outside servers and storage

are hot new gadgets evident now
Are hot new gadgets evident now?

The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise.

16% experts

17% full sample

Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators.

81% experts

80% full sample

July 9, 2010

3

themes
Themes

iPhone, iPhone, iPhone

Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth / processing

There are basic trends evident now that will come to fruition and some groundwork that has been in place for years that will expand to have more impact

The internet of things

Growth of mobile connectivity and location-based services

Bigger/thinner TVs - 3D displays

“Consolidated,” all-purpose gadgets and apps

July 9, 2010

4

media ecosystem change 1
Media ecosystem change – 1

Volume of information grows

-- Chris Anderson

-- Hal Varian

-- San Diego State research

internet of things is built and exaflood of data swells more civic data becomes available for news
Internet of things is built and “exaflood” of data swells … more civic data becomes available for news
media ecosystem change 2
Media ecosystem change – 2

Venues of intersecting with information multiply and the availabilityof information expands to all hours of the day and all places … more screens; more surfaces; more interfaces

-- Nielsen Company

media ecosystem change 3
Media ecosystem change – 3

Variety of information and sources of information grow as niches narrow and proliferate

-- Markus Prior

-- James Hamilton

media ecosystem change 4
Media ecosystem change – 4

Velocity of information increases; the flow of information is rain-like; smart mobs multiply

-- Howard Rheingold Clay Shirky

media ecosystem change 5
Media ecosystem change – 5

People’s vigilance for information changes in two directions:

1) attention is truncated (Linda Stone)

2) attention is elongated (Andrew Keen; Terry Fisher)

media ecosystem change 6
Media ecosystem change – 6
  • Augmented Reality

-- Apps universe

The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out

-- Metaverse Roadmap Project

media ecosystem change 613
Media ecosystem change – 6

2) Life-logging

-- Gordon Bell

The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out

-- Metaverse Roadmap Project

media ecosystem change 7
Media ecosystem change – 7

Valence (relevance) of information improves – search, comprehension, customization get better as we create the “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” and the “web of meaning”

– Nicholas Negroponte

-- Sir Tim Berners-Lee

media ecosystem change 8
Media ecosystem change – 8

The voice of information democratizes and the visibility of new creators is enhanced. Identity and privacy change.

-- William Dutton

-- Clay Shirky

media ecosystem change 9
Media ecosystem change – 9

Voting on and ventilating about information proliferates as tagging, rating, crowdsourcing and groundswells expand; collective intelligenceasserts itself

-- Henry Jenkins

-- David Weinberger

-- Charlene Li

media ecosystem change 10
Media ecosystem change – 10

Social networks become more vivid and meaningful. Media-making is part of social networking. “Networked individualism” takes hold

-- Barry Wellman

-- Duncan Watts

pervasive 3 platforms have converged online
Pervasive (3) – Platforms have converged online
  • 68% of internet news consumers have watched video news stories
  • 62% watched live feeds
  • 48% emailed stories or news videos
pervasive 4 people blend old and new media
Pervasive (4) -- People blend old and new media

On typical day,

59% of adults

get new online and from

at least

one offline source

the daily me and daily us is being built
67% of all Americans say they only follow specific subjects

28% of internet users have customized a news page and 42% say customization is an important web feature to them

~ 50% belong to listservs / large email groups

~ 33% of internet users get RSS feeds

~ 25% get news alerts

The “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” is being built
people use news as a social currency 1
72% of Americans who follow the news at least now and then say they enjoy talking with friends, family, and colleagues about what is happening in the world

69% feel that keeping up with the news is a social or civic obligation

50% say they rely on the people around them to tell them when there is news they need to know

People use news as a social currency (1)
people use news as a social currency 2
57% of internet users share links to news stories

30% of internet users get news on typical day through their SNS use

13% follow news organizations and journalists on SNS

6% get news via Twitter feeds

People use news as a social currency (2)
people use news as a social currency 3
Serendipitous encounters with news still happen AND still matter

80% of online news consumers (57% of whole population) say they run across news several times a week while they are online for another purpose

People use news as a social currency (3)
implication 1
Implication 1

Social networks matter more as sentries, filters, curators, and distribution channels of news

implication 2
Implication 2

“Consumers” are in charge of the news playlist and experience … and they want to participate in the news-gathering and distribution process

implication 3
Implication 3

Much news is a commodity and consumers have a classic “market” response: They don’t want to pay for something that is abundant and available elsewhere

the online news consumer
The Online News Consumer

How many websites, if any, do you routinely rely on for news and information?

% of Online News Consumers

the online news consumer38
The Online News Consumer

Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite?

% of Online News Consumers

the online news consumer39
The Online News Consumer

Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite?

Only 15% of those with a favorite site – 7% of all people who get news online – would be willing to pay for continued access to that site

% of Online News Consumers

implication 4
Implication 4

News organizations have to figure out where they can add value in the news chain in a more complex media ecosystem with more distracted audience

slide42

Pew Research Center’s

Tom Rosenstiel model: Journalism as a service – not product

The Eight Functions of 21st Century Media

- Authentication - Sense Making

- Watch Dog - Smart Aggregation

- Witness - Empowerment

- Forum Leader - Role Model

eight critical uncertainties
Eight critical uncertainties
  • apps impact
  • advertiser innovation
  • small biz behavior
  • internet architecture / cloud configuration
  • IP policy
  • privacy concerns
  • what hyperlocal looks like and means
  • capacity of info "markets" to find the truth
final uncertainty how news operations respond to the paradoxes of new news world
Final uncertainty – how news operations respond to the paradoxes of new news world
  • More material – but less time with news
  • More direct access to experts and more knowledge being generated – but not smarter at the general societal level
  • More voices and more variety – but more traffic to big brands
  • More participation and engagement – but less revenue
  • More transparency of news creation process – but less trust of coverage
  • People say it is easier to keep up AND harder to navigate the clutter
  • People are satisfied with MSM coverage of the issues that matter to them AND see more bias in coverage
thank you
Thank you!

Lee Rainie

Director

Pew Internet & American Life Project

1615 L Street NW

Suite 700

Washington, DC 20036

Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org

Twitter: http://twitter.com/lrainie

202-419-4500