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Moneytalks “How to Trade” Workshops www.Moneytalks.net Kamloops / Kelowna / Surrey May 18, 19, 20 Victor Adair www.VictorAdair.com Outline Part One Definition of trading Motives, objectives, opinions, consequences Learning how to trade Part Two Charts I watch This is not a school

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moneytalks how to trade workshops www moneytalks net

Moneytalks “How to Trade” Workshopswww.Moneytalks.net

Kamloops / Kelowna / Surrey

May 18, 19, 20

Victor Adair

www.VictorAdair.com

outline
Outline
  • Part One
  • Definition of trading
  • Motives, objectives, opinions, consequences
  • Learning how to trade
  • Part Two
  • Charts I watch
this is not a school
This is not a school
  • This is just me talking about my ideas, my way of looking at things
  • Perhaps you will get an idea that will help you
definition of trading
Definition of trading
  • To be in the right thing at the right time
  • Not (necessarily) day trading
  • To move from one asset to another or to cash
  • To be short in a down market
  • Everything is a spread
  • Learn, think, see, assign probabilities, manage risk, act, sit.
motives for learning to trade
Motives for learning to trade
  • It’s necessary to learn how to look after yourself
  • Zero returns on cash
  • You can trade from anywhere
  • The world is changing very fast - get free from your old opinions
  • It’s better than working!
learn to think like a trader
Learn to think like a trader
  • What’s done is done – what can you learn from it – what are you going to do now?
  • Opinions are necessary – and dangerous – why do you believe what you believe?
  • Why Buy often means Sell
  • Psychology is more important than math
  • Look for the relationships between markets
  • Anticipate – then wait for confirmation!
opinions
Opinions
  • Credit Boom = Asset Boom + Risk
  • Not an ordinary recession – a post bubble credit contraction
  • More money borrowed than will ever be repaid – lenders and borrowers less willing
  • Authorities launched massive stimulus to reflate economies
  • Inflation or Deflation?
  • Something big breaks – the Euro?
opinions8
Opinions
  • Market psychology swings between willingness to embrace risk (whistling past the graveyard) and trying to escape from risk
  • Musical Chairs: everyone (?) knows there’s danger, but they think they can avoid it
  • Capital moves back and forth between the center (safe) and the periphery (risky)
consequences
Consequences
  • Massive and growing Gov’t debts and deficits – who pays? How to they pay?
  • Raise taxes?
  • Cut services / break promises?
  • Default?
  • Inflate away?
  • Rising interest rates as investors shun debt?
  • More gov’t in your future? Welcomed by who?
what am i doing
What am I doing?
  • Semi-retired, managing my own money
  • Savings: very conservative, liquid
  • Trading accounts: very little leverage
  • No debts, no assets
  • 40 years of trading experience and trying to learn more
  • Re-examine everything, protect myself from the government
  • Objective: maintain and grow my purchasing power while managing risk of loss; maintain independence, mobility