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CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting. Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006. CNRFC Operations. 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15

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cnrfc operational flood forecasting

CNRFCOperational Flood Forecasting

Pete Fickenscher

Hydrologist

California-Nevada River Forecast Center

National Weather Service

October 18, 2006

cnrfc operations
CNRFC Operations
  • 11 Weather offices
  • 220 Basins modeled
  • 87 Flood Forecast Points
    • Partners: Calif. DWR
    • Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15
  • 50 Reservoir Inflow Points
    • Partners: COE & BUREC
    • Season: year-round
  • 50 Water Supply Points
    • Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1
cnrfc staff
CNRFC Staff
  • Hydrologist in Charge (HIC)
  • Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH)
  • 4 Senior Hydrologists
  • 3 Hydrologists
  • 1 Senior HAS Forecasters
  • 2 HAS Forecasters
  • Administrative Assistant
cnrfc hydrologic products
CNRFC Hydrologic Products

Short Range … … … … … … Long Range

Flash Flood Guidance

Flood Forecast Guidance

Reservoir Inflow Forecasts

Spring Snow Melt Forecasts

Water Supply Volume

operational hydrologic models

Operational Hydrologic Models

Operational Forecast System

NWSRFS Structure

Calibration System

ESP

primary nwsrfs models
Primary NWSRFS Models
  • Rain-Snow Elevation
  • Snow-17
  • Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA)
  • Unit Hydrograph
  • Reservoir Models
  • River Routing Models
nwsrfs models
NWSRFS Models

Rain-Snow Elevation

Snowfall

Rainfall

nwsrfs models9
NWSRFS Models

SNOW-17

  • Conceptual Model of Physical Processes
  • Models a Column of Snow

- Accumulation of Snow Cover

- Surface Energy Exchange

- Snow Cover ‘Ripening’

- Ground Heat Exchange

- Transmission of Liquid Water

  • Input = Air Temperature & Precip.
  • Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow
nwsrfs models10
NWSRFS Models

SNOW-17

WY 1986

SJ River

nwsrfs models11
NWSRFS Models

SAC-SMA

  • Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle
  • Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover
  • Output = Inflow to the channel system
nwsrfs models13
NWSRFS Models

SAC-SMA

WY 1986

SJ River

nwsrfs models14
NWSRFS Models

Actual Inflow (FOLC1)

Observed (w): hourly data

Simulated (p): 6-hourly

(with reservoir outflows)

nwsrfs models15
NWSRFS Models

River Routing Example

nwsrfs models16
NWSRFS Models

Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

nwsrfs models17
NWSRFS Models

Tidal Example (Rio Vista)

operational hydrologic models18

Operational Hydrologic Models

Operational Forecast System

NWSRFS Structure

Calibration System

ESP

operational flood forecasting

River Forecast

Guidance

Operational Flood Forecasting

Hydrologist

hydrologic

expertise

H

A

S

QPF

River

Forecast

System

Rain/Snow Elevations

Forecast

Temp

Soil, snow & routing parameters

precip/temp/flow

Data

Systems

Model Calibration

operational flood forecasting20

Hydrologist

River Forecast

Guidance

Operational Flood Forecasting

Data

Systems

Model Calibration

slide22

Precipitation Data Quality Control

Gage Catch Issues

  • Wind
  • Snow
  • Instrumentation (double tipping)
  • Gage location (vegetation, topography…)
  • Vandalism
river and reservoir data qc

Reservoir Inflow

Outflow and Storage

Hourly

Stage & Streamflow

Anticipated

Reservoir Outflow

River and Reservoir Data QC

Automated Filtering

&

Manual QC

real time forecasting
Real-time Forecasting

NF American River

Observed Data

Simulated Flow

real time forecasting26

Observed Flow Data

Simulated Flow

Real-time Forecasting

San Joaquin River at Newman

operational flood forecasting28

Hydrologist

River Forecast

Guidance

Operational Flood Forecasting

Data

Systems

Model Calibration

operational flood forecasting31
Operational Flood Forecasting

Hydrologist

hydrologic

expertise

Graphical RVF

H

A

S

QPF

River

Forecast

System

Rain/Snow Elevations

Forecast

Temp

Soil, snow & routing parameters

precip/temp/flow

Data

Systems

Model Calibration

graphical river forecast guidance
Graphical River Forecast Guidance

Merced River -

Pohono Bridge

graphical rvf availability
Graphical RVF Availability
  • 87 official flood forecast points.
  • Routine updates.
    • twice per day.
    • morning/afternoon.
  • Updates during floods.
    • 8am/2pm/8pm/2am.
    • as needed.
  • Visible to everyone.
graphical river forecast guidance34
Graphical River Forecast Guidance

Benefits

  • Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation.
  • More information is presented than in a text product.
  • Longer range guidance for emergency managers.
forecasting balancing timeliness and accuracy

Timeliness

Forecast Value

Accuracy

ForecastingBalancing Timeliness and Accuracy

Forecast Lead Time

graphical river forecast guidance36
Graphical River Forecast Guidance
  • Guidance period information has higher uncertainty.
    • Timing and amount of rainfall forecast.
    • Rain/snow level forecast.
    • Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.
slide37

New Website

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

Graphical

RVF

slide38

New Website

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

Other River

Guidance

review of 2006 flood event
Review of 2006 Flood Event

Folsom Inflow Forecasts

Graphs

operational hydrologic models40

Operational Hydrologic Models

Operational Forecast System

NWSRFS Structure

Calibration System

ESP

slide41

ESP Products

  • Reservoir inflows
  • Unregulated rivers
  • Extended forecasts
ahps relevant products
AHPS – Relevant Products

ESP Custom Product Generation

  • CNRFC implemented AHPS locations
  • Started in WY2005 on 70 points
ahps relevant products44
AHPS – Relevant Products

ESP Custom Product Generation

cnrfc development areas
CNRFC Development Areas
  • Flood Forecasting
  • Dam Break Support
  • Flash Flood Support
  • Water Supply Forecasting
  • Hourly Hydrologic Modeling
  • Website

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/