Appendix • Appendix A – State Emission Maps • Appendix B – Additional Detail on Key IPM Assumptions • Appendix C – Additional Detail on Health Benefits
State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2012 Largest bar equals 347 thousand tons of SO2 in Indiana, RCSource: EPA 2009
State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2015 Largest bar equals 354 thousand tons of SO2 in Texas, RCSource: EPA 2009
State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2020 Largest bar equals 355 thousand tons of SO2 in Texas, RCSource: EPA 2009
State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2012 Largest bar equals 129 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4Source: EPA 2009
State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2015 Largest bar equals 134 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009
State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2020 Largest bar equals 139 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009
State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2012 Largest bar equals 63 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4Source: EPA 2009
State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2015 Largest bar equals 64 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009
State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2020 Largest bar equals 68 thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009
SO2 Allowance Bank pre-2012 • SO2 bank at end of 2008 had 8.6 million allowances • Assuming continuation of CAIR in reference case, SO2 emissions continue to decline through 2012 • The various SO2 caps in the alternative scenarios would lead to different emissions levels in 2012 and therefore, different starting banks. For this analysis, the same starting bank based on the reference case was used for all scenarios. • Current vintage allowances used for compliance before banked pre-2010 allowances • 1:1 retirement ratio for pre-2010 allowances compared to 2:1 for 2011 and beyond • Combining the 2008 starting bank balance, projected emissions and allocations, and retirement assumptions results in a starting 2012 bank of 9.1 million SO2 allowances.
Technology Limits in IPM • The addition of new FGD and SCR controls is also limited for 2012 only to not exceed what is being built in 2009, the most additions in a single year. Additions have been limited because of the short time available for planning and construction by 2012. • The SCR constraint is met in the most stringent NOx cap case (Scenario #3). Otherwise, SCR and FGD constraints are not reached. • Feasibility constraints have been updated for in IPM in order to limit the market penetration of the various electricity generating sources to ensure realistic build patterns in response to CO2 regulatory policies. • These limits are imposed on new renewable, nuclear, and coal with CCS technology. • The limits were determined based upon various factors, including: • Historical deployment patterns • Potential to expand domestic engineering, construction, and manufacturing base • Ability to educate and train workforce (this is particularly true for new coal with CCS and nuclear plants due to the highly technical nature of building these facilities) • Because new nuclear and new coal with CCS are both complicated technologies that require sophisticated planning, engineering, and construction support, the same engineering/construction firms would be building both of these facilities and there would be a dynamic between the greater resources needed to build one technology relative to the other, in addition to the inherent limitations of increasing the skilled workforce. • To reflect this dynamic, EPA has incorporated a technology curve in the model, whereby the amount of new nuclear and coal with CCS is limited but also incorporates a trade-off between each technology (i.e., if you build more of one, you must build less of the other). • The amount of each technology that is built in IPM is determined in an economic manner, up to the limits. • CCS retrofits to the existing coal fleet are also limited in IPM, and are constrained separately on the assumption that these projects can be handled by smaller and more specialized firms. OR Note: In addition to the renewable capacity limitations, a 20% cap is set on the amount of electricity generation in a model region that can come from variable power sources (e.g., wind). * Post 2015 new CCS constraints exclude the 4 GW of hardwired capacity. CCS retrofit capacity reflects pre-retrofit capacity (e.g., before CCS parasitic load is taken into account).
Emission Control Limits in IPM • Used historical FGD and SCR annual additions data to determine reasonable limits for retrofits possible by 2012. • In the past 6 years, the addition of new controls has been highest for both FGD and SCR in 2009, so this year was chosen as the upper limit. • No limit on new controls was implemented for years beyond 2012 assuming that adequate time and resources would be available.
General IPM Modeling Limitations • The model does not have the ability to add emissions control retrofits to smaller units under 100 MW. • Demand response was not applied in this modeling resulting in somewhat overstated overall costs. • EPA’s application of IPM does not incorporate several technological innovations that can become available over time (e.g., ultra-supercritical coal, advanced renewables) or enhanced energy efficiency that could lead to demand reductions. • The model provides a good sense over the next 15 to 20 years of how the power sector could operate with expected demand, fuel prices, technologies, and other factors, based on EPA’s best information available. • Allowance allocation and auctioning are not accounted for in the modeling. • While IPM endogenously builds new capacity, the model places an exogenous constraint on the total amount of most new capacity builds. • There are non-economic considerations for significant expansion of new coal with CCS, nuclear power, and renewables which are not reflected in IPM, such as the need for new transmission, siting concerns, and permitting. • IPM assumes a 60 year life for nuclear power plants and therefore no retirement for obsolescence occur during the modeling timeframe. • There was not time to conduct sensitivity analysis of key assumptions.
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 1 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 2 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 3 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 4 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 5 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
Incremental Human Health Benefits • Control Scenario 6 – All PM2.5 health endpoints
References for Health Benefits Estimation • Fann N., C.M. Fulcher, and B.J. Hubbell. 2009. The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health. ISSN 1873-9318. DOI: 10.1007/s11869-009-0044-0. • Methods for Projection Health Benefits for EPA’s Multi-Pollutant Analyses of 2005http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/docs/health_benefits_method.pdf • Roman, H.A., K.D. Walker, T.L. Walsh, L. Conner, H.M. Richmond, B.J. Hubbell, and P.L. Kinney. 2008. An Expert Judgment Assessment of the Mortality Impact of Changes in Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in the U.S. Environmental Science and Technology, 42 (7), 2268–2274. • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2006. Regulatory Impact Analysis, 2006 National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter, Chapter 5. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. October. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009a. Regulatory Impact Analysis: National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants from the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. April.http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/portlandcementria_4-20-09.pdf • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009b. Proposed NO2 NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. July. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/proposedno2ria.pdf • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ‐ Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA‐SAB). 2009a. Review of EPA’s Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (First External Review Draft, December 2008). EPA-COUNCIL-09-008. May. http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/SABPRODUCT.NSF/81e39f4c09954fcb85256ead006be86e/73ACCA834AB44A10852575BD0064346B/$File/EPA-CASAC-09-008-unsigned.pdf
References for Health Benefits Estimation PM2.5 concentration response functions • Mortality, Adult: All Cause • Pope, C.A., 3rd, R.T. Burnett, M.J. Thun, E.E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito and G.D. Thurston. 2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Jama. Vol. 287 (9): 1132-41. • Laden, F., J. Schwartz, F. E. Speizer and D. W. Dockery. 2006. Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality: Extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities Study. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. • Mortality, Infant: All Cause • Woodruff, T.J., J.D. Parker, and K.C. Schoendorf, Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality in California. Environmental Health Perspectives. Available Online January 13, 2006, 2006. • Acute Myocardial Infarction, Nonfatal • Peters, A., D.W. Dockery, J.E. Muller and M.A. Mittleman. 2001. Increased particulate air pollution and the triggering of myocardial infarction. Circulation. Vol. 103 (23): 2810-5. • Acute Bronchitis • Dockery, D.W., J. Cunningham, A.I. Damokosh, L.M. Neas, J.D. Spengler, P. Koutrakis, J.H. Ware, M. Raizenne and F.E. Speizer. 1996. Health Effects of Acid Aerosols On North American Children - Respiratory Symptoms. Environmental Health Perspectives. Vol. • Chronic Bronchitis • Abbey, D.E., B.E. Ostro, F. Petersen and R.J. Burchette. 1995. Chronic Respiratory Symptoms Associated with Estimated Long-Term Ambient Concentrations of Fine Particulates Less Than 2.5 Microns in Aerodynamic Diameter (PM2.5) and Other Air Pollutants. J E • Asthma Exacerbation: Cough • Vedal, S., et al., Acute effects of ambient inhalable particles in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 1998. 157(4): p. 1034-1043. • Asthma Exacerbation: Cough, Wheeze, Shortness of Breath • Ostro, B., M. Lipsett, J. Mann, H. Braxton-Owens and M. White. 2001. Air pollution and exacerbation of asthma in African-American children in Los Angeles. Epidemiology. Vol. 12 (2): 200-8. • Work Loss Days • Ostro, B.D. Air Pollution and Morbidity Revisited: A Specification Test. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1987. 14: p. 87-98.
References for Health Benefits Estimation PM2.5 concentration response functions continued • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Chronic Lung Disease; Cardiovascular - All Cardiovascular (less Myocardial Infarctions) • Moolgavkar, S.H. Air Pollution and Daily Deaths and Hospital Admissions in Los Angeles and Cook Counties. In: Revised Analyses of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Health. 2003, Health Effects Institute: Boston, MA. p. 183-198. • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) • Moolgavkar, S.H. Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Three Metropolitan Areas in the United States. Inhalation Toxicology, 2000. 12(Supplement 4): p. 75-90. • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Asthma • Sheppard, L. Ambient Air Pollution and Nonelderly Asthma Hospital Admissions in Seattle, Washington, 1987-1994. In: Revised Analyses of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Health. 2003, Health Effects Institute: Boston, MA. p. 227-230. • Hospital Admissions: Cardiovascular - All Cardiovascular (less Myocardial Infarctions) • Moolgavkar, S.H. Air pollution and hospital admissions for diseases of the circulatory system in three U.S. metropolitan areas. J Air Waste Manag Assoc, 2000. 50(7): p. 1199-206. • Hospital Admissions: Cardiovascular - Ischemic Heart Disease (less Myocardial Infarctions), Dysrhythmia, Congestive Heart Failure; Respiratory - Chronic Lung Disease, Pneumonia • Ito, K. Associations of Particulate Matter Components with Daily Mortality and Morbidity in Detroit, Michigan. In: Revised Analyses of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Health. 2003, Health Effects Institute: Boston, MA. p. 143-156. • Emergency Room Visits: Asthma • Norris, G., et al. An association between fine particles and asthma emergency department visits for children in Seattle. Environ Health Perspect, 1999. 107(6): p. 489-93. • Acute Respiratory Symptoms • Ostro, B.D. and S. Rothschild. Air Pollution and Acute Respiratory Morbidity - an Observational Study of Multiple Pollutants. Environ Res, 1989. 50(2): p. 238-247. • Upper Respiratory Symptoms • Pope, C.A., et al. Respiratory Health and Pm10 Pollution - a Daily Time Series Analysis. American Review of Respiratory Disease, 1991. 144(3): p. 668-674. • Lower Respiratory Symptoms • Schwartz, J. and L.M. Neas. 2000. Fine particles are more strongly associated than coarse particles with acute respiratory health effects in schoolchildren. Epidemiology. Vol. 11 (1): 6-10.
References for Health Benefits Estimation Ozone concentration response functions • Mortality, Non-Accidental • Ito, K., and G.D. Thurston. 1996. “Daily PM10/Mortality Associations: An Investigations of At-Risk Subpopulations.” Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology 6(1):79-95. • Moolgavkar, S.H., E.G. Luebeck, T.A. Hall, and E.L. Anderson. 1995. “Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Philadelphia.” Epidemiology 6(5):476-484. • Samet, J.M., S.L. Zeger, J.E. Kelsall, J. Xu, and L.S. Kalkstein. March 1997. Air Pollution, Weather, and Mortality in Philadelphia 1973-1988. Cambridge, MA: Health Effects Institute. • Emergency Room Visits: Respiratory - Asthma • Cody, R.P., C.P. Weisel, G. Birnbaum, and P.J. Lioy. 1992. “The Effect of Ozone Associated with Summertime Photochemical Smog on the Frequency of Asthma Visits to Hospital Emergency Departments.” Environmental Research 58(2):184-94. • Weisel, C.P., R.P. Cody, and P.J. Lioy. 1995. “Relationship between Summertime Ambient Ozone Levels and Emergency Department Visits for Asthma in Central New Jersey.” Environmental Health Perspectives 103 Suppl 2:97-102. • Stieb, D.M., R.T. Burnett, R.C. Beveridge, and J.R. Brook. 1996. “Association between Ozone and Asthma Emergency Department Visits in Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada.” Environmental Health Perspectives 104(12):1354-1360.
References for Health Benefits Estimation Ozone concentration response functions continued • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory • Burnett, R.T., et al. Association between ozone and hospitalization for acute respiratory diseases in children less than 2 years of age. Am J Epidemiol, 2001. 153(5): p. 444-52. • Schwartz, J. Short term fluctuations in air pollution and hospital admissions of the elderly for respiratory disease. Thorax, 1995. 50(5): p. 531-538. • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Chronic Lung Disease, Pneumonia • Moolgavkar, S.H., E.G. Luebeck, and E.L. Anderson. Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory causes in Minneapolis St. Paul and Birmingham. Epidemiology, 1997. 8(4): p. 364-370. • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Pneumonia • Schwartz, J. PM(10) Ozone, and Hospital Admissions For the Elderly in Minneapolis St Paul, Minnesota. Archives of Environmental Health, 1994. 49(5): p. 366-374. • Hospital Admissions: Respiratory - Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma), Pneumonia • Schwartz, J. Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions For the Elderly in Detroit, Michigan. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 1994 150(3): p. 648-655. • School Loss Days: All Cause • Chen, L., B.L. Jennison, W. Yang and S.T. Omaye. 2000a. Elementary school absenteeism and air pollution. Inhal Toxicol. Vol. 12 (11): 997-1016. • Gilliland, F.D., K. Berhane, E.B. Rappaport, D.C. Thomas, E. Avol, W.J. Gauderman, S.J. London, H.G. Margolis, R. McConnell, K.T. Islam and J.M. Peters. 2001. The effects of ambient air pollution on school absenteeism due to respiratory illnesses. Epidemiology. 2001 Jan. 12(1): p. 43-54. • Worker Productivity • Crocker, T.D. and R.L. Horst, Jr. Hours of Work, Labor Productivity, and Environmental Conditions: A Case Study. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1981. 63: p. 361-368. • Acute Respiratory Symptoms • Ostro, B.D. and S. Rothschild. Air Pollution and Acute Respiratory Morbidity - an Observational Study of Multiple Pollutants. Environ Res, 1989. 50(2): p. 238-247.