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ANZ Box Trades & the GFC Contents of Presentation Global Context Regional Economic Context ANZ Container Port Performance ANZ Trade Lane Performance Impact on Service Offerings Latest Trends & Conclusions Long Term Global Economic Trend (CLARKSON) Global Container Industry Trends 2009

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ANZ Box Trades & the GFC


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Presentation Transcript
contents of presentation
Contentsof Presentation
  • Global Context
  • Regional Economic Context
  • ANZ Container Port Performance
  • ANZ Trade Lane Performance
  • Impact on Service Offerings
  • Latest Trends & Conclusions
global container industry trends 2009
GlobalContainer Industry Trends 2009

“2009: a disastrous year for container shipping” Platou

  • Ship charter rates at lay up levels most of the year
  • 11.4% of industry capacity reported laid up at year end
  • Container volumes down 6 – 7%, but in H1 volumes down 30% - 57% v. 2008
  • H1 8 of top 20 lines lost US$4b or $264 per Teu carried
  • Fleet capacity up 8%
  • Vessel utilisation down 14 – 15% v 2008
  • H2 Box rates up somewhat due cuts in capacity
top asian container ports teus m 2009
TopAsianContainer Ports Teus m. 2009

-14.7%

-12.2%

-16.3%

-15.9%

Source:

Lloyds List

box fleet trends orders teus 000s platou
Box Fleet Trends & Orders Teus ‘000s (PLATOU)

New Orders: Jan – Nov 2009: 73.2 v. 1,105.6 in 2008

anz economies
ANZ Economies

Sources: the Economist; Reserve Banks

new zealand top box ports 000s teus
New Zealand Top Box Ports ‘000s Teus

+0.3%

-6.2%

-2.0%

+3.7%

-3.9%

-8.0%

anz box ports in 2009
ANZ Box Ports in 2009
  • Australian ports box volumes all dropped by >10% in H1 2009 v. H1 2008
  • In H2 all were less negative other than Fremantle, with MEL and SYD only - 1%
  • In NZ POAL improved from -7.5% decline in Q1 2009 to -5% in Q3 v 12 months earlier
  • Tauranga declined 6% overall in 2008/9 but was nearly 25% weaker in Q3 2009 v. 2008
australian full box trade by area 2008 9 teus
Australian Full Box Trade by Area 2008/9 (Teus)

3,814,800Teus

9.0%

10.8%

8.7%

17.7%

12.0%

41.8%

nz full box trade by area 2008 9 teus
NZ Full Box Trade by Area 2008/9 (Teus)

1,244,200 Teus

source: NZSC

11.6%

6.7%

21.3%

7.7%

15.7%

37.0%

australian major box services 1
Australian Major Box Services: 1

Trade Lanes: NE AsiaNorth America* also serves SE Asia

australian major box service port coverage 1
Australian Major Box Service Port Coverage 1

Trade Lanes: NE AsiaNorth America * also serves SE Asia

australian major box services 2
Australian Major Box Services: 2

Trade Lanes: SEAsia Europe

key australian service changes since 2008
Key Australian Service Changes since 2008
  • Consoliation of Maersk SE & NE Asian services in Boomerang
  • 10 other significant changes in NE Asian consortia alignments and service loops in the period
  • Consolidation of CMA Nemo & HL Suez services to Europe
  • Consolidation of Maersk OC1 and Hamburg Sud Trident USEC service and direct operation to Europe foregone
  • Integration of ANL/USL in VSA USWC service
nz long haul deep sea box services
NZ Long Haul Deep Sea Box Services

Trade Lanes: SE Asia NE AsiaNorth AmericaEurope/USEC

nz deep sea service major port calls
NZ Deep Sea Service Major Port Calls

Trade Lanes: SE Asia NE Asia North AmericaEurope/USEC

key nz service changes since 2008
Key NZ Service Changes since 2008
  • CMA & Hapag replace direct Europe services via Suez with feeder to Australia/SE Asia
  • Maersk & Hamburg Sud merge USEC/Europe services via Panama and abandon direct service to Europe
  • USL USWC service absorbed into VSA and PNW service reduced to fortnightly
  • Maersk & MISC establish joint service to SE Asia and NYK & MOL join PIL service
  • NE Asian services of H Sud, Cosco, & Japanese Lines consolidated
conclusions on regional outlook
Positive Signs

Industrial production up

Consumer confidence up

Box volumes improve

Freight rates improve

Port Infrastructure upgrades

Negative Signs

Interest rates rising

Surplus ship capacity

PRC bust? – inflation Dec 2009: 18% annualised

US/EU recovery?

Withdrawal of stimulus?

Conclusions on Regional Outlook

World Bank Global Economic Prospects 2010:

2009 Growth -2.2%; 2010 + 2.7%; 2011 +3.2% …..

But jury still out on double dip recession?