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  1. actual forecast Figure 1. Total energy production in Alberta Hydro, wind, and other renewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal

  2. Figure 2

  3. Figure 3. same as 3.23

  4. Figure 4 same as 5.27. Total gas production in Alberta actual forecast

  5. EUB Prorationing Plan (restricted production) Major Oil Field Discoveries 1947 – Leduc 1948 – Redwater 1949 – Golden Spike 1952 – Bonnie Glen 1953 – Pembina 1957 – Swan Hill 1959 – Judy Creek 1959 – Swan Hill South 1965 - Rainbow Major Events Affecting Price 1973 – Oil Embargo 1979 – Iranian Revolution 1980 – Iran / Iraq War 1986 – OPEC Crumbles 1990 – Gulf War 1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis 2001 – 9 / 11 2003 – Iraq War Export Pipelines 1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge) 1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line 1938 - Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation Board (EUB) created to enforce production standards Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook Figure 5. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price

  6. Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup Syncrude Startup Cdn$/cubic metre Figure 6. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price

  7. Cdn$/cubic metres Figure 7. Alberta in situ bitumen production and price

  8. Hurricanes Katerina and Rita hit U.S. Gulf Coast Foothills Pipe Lines built for gas exports to California and the mid-western U.S. Late 1998: Northern Border/TCPL expansion 2000: Alliance Pipeline 1956: TransCanada Pipelines built to take Alberta gas to central Canada and the U.S. after debate over its charter in Parliament PGT expansion Regulated gas price tied to oil prices. Surplus built up Surplus gas drives down prices Price deregulation Arbitration awards price increase Gas prices as a by-product of oil production. Price less than replacement cost Figure 8. Historical natural gas production and price

  9. Figure 9. Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price

  10. Late 1990’s – mine closures and reduced coal exports due to depressed coal prices 1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation 1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains 1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry 1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines) and growth of population 1960 – Steam rail era ends Coal remained “King Coal” until huge reservoirs of crude oil and natural gas were discovered Figure 10. Historical coal production and price Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal ( Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE)

  11. Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2006

  12. actual forecast High Low Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago

  13. actual forecast High Low Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead

  14. Figure 1.5 2006 Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes Figure 1.5 2006 average monthly reference prices in Alberta

  15. actual forecast high low Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate

  16. actual forecast Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices

  17. Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators

  18. actual forecast Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment

  19. ATHABASCA 120.9 PEACE RIVER 4.3 26.6 COLD LAKE 47.6 In Situ Mined Bitumen Figure 2.7. Production of Bitumen in Alberta, 2006 103 m3/d

  20. Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

  21. actual forecast Surface mining In situ Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production

  22. Production (103 m3/d) Figure 2.10. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells

  23. actual forecast Synthetic crude oil Synthetic Crude Oil Figure 2.11. Alberta synthetic crude oil production

  24. Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory Synthetic Crude Oil Figure 2.14. Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory

  25. actual forecast Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta SCO removals from Alberta Synthetic Crude Oil Alberta demand (mainly SCO) Figure 2.15. Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO

  26. Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

  27. Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

  28. Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves

  29. Total number of pools (103m3) Initial reserves (103m3) Remaining reserves (103m3) Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size

  30. Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year

  31. Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

  32. 2006 Initial established reserves 2730.8 106 m3 2006 Remaining established reserves 250.1 106 m3 182 157 20 11 1196 488 52 424 Fig. 3.8. Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves (106 m3) 78 43 6 21 263 40

  33. Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production

  34. Ultimate potential (3130) actual forecast Actual as of December 31, 2006 Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reservesof crude oil

  35. 33 26 269 257 506 619 458 522 483 443 Figure 3.11. Alberta successful oil well drilling By modified PSAC area 7 3 400 292 2005 Wells Drilled = 2172 2006 Wells Drilled = 2146

  36. 21 222 553 392 508 Figure 3.12. Oil wells placed on production, 2006 by modified PSAC area 6 254 Total wells = 1956

  37. 17.2 [109] 12.3 [77] 6.3 [39] 8.7 [55] 11.5 [72] 5.0 [32] 7.6 [48] Figure 3.13. Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2006 by modified PSAC area m3/day/well [bbl/day/well]

  38. PSAC 8 PSAC 7 PSAC 5 PSAC 4 PSAC 3 PSAC 2 PSAC 1 Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area