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Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2011. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Inflation/high oil will weigh on consumer confidence—may slow growth

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Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH

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  1. Cochise CollegeCENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2011

  2. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

  3. Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year

  4. National Outlook • Inflation/high oil will weigh on consumer confidence—may slow growth • Excess reserves present inflation risk • Much depends on international events • Replacement purchases will help growth

  5. GDP by State

  6. The Local Economy Cochise County & Sierra Vista

  7. POPULATION

  8. Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  9. Retail Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: -7.9% * • 2010: -4.8% • 2009: -4.2% • 2008: -6.5% • 2007: -1.3% • Sierra Vista • 2011: -17.8% * • 2010: -1.1% • 2009: -1.4% • 2008: -6.6% • 2007: 2.6% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

  10. Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  11. Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: 2.7% * • 2010: 0.0% • 2009: 0.3% • 2008: 0.2% • 2007: 0.1% • Sierra Vista • 2011: -0.6% * • 2010: 3.1% • 2009: 2.1% • 2008: -2.0% • 2007: 2.9% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

  12. Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  13. Accommodation Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: -10.7% * • 2010: 8.3% • 2009: -9.0% • 2008: 1.0% • 2007: 19.7% • Sierra Vista • 2011: 19.5% * • 2010: 11.0% • 2009: -2.0% • 2008: 19.4% • 2007: 21.1% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

  14. Sales Outlook • Instability in countywide/city retail sales; trend is flat in negative territory • Continued instability in countywide/city restaurant and bar sales • Strong growth trend in city accommodation sales; instability countywide • Still much uncertainty; inflation danger

  15. Employment

  16. Unemployment Rates * Seasonally adjusted; U.S., Jan-Mar; AZ, Jan-Feb

  17. Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth Compared to same month previous year

  18. Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry 12 months ended February 2011 * Includes mining

  19. Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry 12 months ended February 2011 * Includes mining

  20. Employment Outlook Local unemployment still on the rise Job losses have moderated, but continue Much uncertainty remains

  21. Housing and Real Estate

  22. New Home Construction Single Family Residential Building Permits

  23. New Home Construction (Sierra Vista) Single Family Residential Building Permits

  24. MLS Home Sales (Site-BUILT)

  25. Median Home Price (SITE-BUILT) *Jan-Mar only

  26. New Commercial Construction (Sierra Vista)

  27. Outlook • New residential construction recovery stalled • Foreclosures becoming more of a problem • Existing home sales on the rise from foreclosures/lower prices • Commercial construction boom coming to end

  28. Conclusion Recovery picking up steam nationally, slow locally Employment showing improvement Foreclosures helping existing home sales volume (but not price), hurting new construction

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