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The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

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slide1

The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

  • Paul Norman
  • School of Geography, University of Leeds
    • understanding population trends and processes
  • ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%
slide2

The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

  • Aim to quantify and map changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses
  • Population change
    • Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change
    • Is the population ageing evenly?
  • Area characteristics change
    • Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time?
  • Health change
    • Relationship to changes in population & deprivation
slide3

The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

  • Introduction
    • UK area typologies
    • Technical challenges
  • Results
    • Demographic change
    • Deprivation change
    • Health change
slide4

Area typologies

  • ONS classification: districts
  • Cities & Services
  • Coastal & Countryside
  • London
  • Mining & Manufacturing
  • Prospering UK
  • Urban / rural: wards
  • 5 level categorisation of population density
  • Deprivation: wards
  • Categorised into quintiles
slide5

Technical challenges

  • 1991 and 2001 mid year small area populations not comparable:
    • Boundary changes
    • Differences in 1991 & 2001 Census population definition (location of student enumeration)
  • To estimate a 1991 base population, need to:
    • Adjust populations to mid-year & to a consistent geography
    • Allow for changed view of level of 1991 Census undercount
  • To calculate area deprivation, need to:
    • Create consistent variables by geography & definition
    • Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable
slide6

1991-2001 population change

Population change

Net migration

Natural change

slide7

1991-2001 change

Urban / Rural areas

slide8

1991-2001 change

Deprivation of areas

slide9

1991-2001 net migration rates

Deprivation 2001

Urban / Rural 2001

slide10

1991-2001 age

Average age 1991

Change in average age

slide11

1991-2001 ageing

Urban / Rural areas

slide12

1991-2001 ageing

Deprivation of areas

slide13

Deprivation change

Townsend Index

slide17

SMRs 2001

Population change & mortality

SMRs 2001

slide18

SIRs 2001

Population change & LLTI

SIRs 2001

slide19

Summary

  • Population change 1991-2001
  • Populations in most urban & more deprived areas maintained by natural change gain
  • Population moving away from more urban & more deprived areas to less deprived, semi-urban locations
  • More urban & deprived areas younger age population than less urban & non-deprived areas
  • Least deprived & most rural ageing most
slide20

Health change 1991-2001

  • Mortality relates more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade
  • Generally, areas becoming less deprived have better health than those remaining the same or becoming more deprived
  • Generally, areas growing & areas of net migration gain have better health than areas contracting or experiencing net migration loss
slide21

Further work …

Analyse by country/GOR

Aggregate by ‘OPCS’ classification

Do some writing!!