1 / 22

Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium

Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium. Talk at Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Sicily. August 20 th 2010 Richard Wilson Harvard University. Introduction. We have been asked to consider the role of science in the next millenium

orien
Download Presentation

Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium Talk at Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Sicily. August 20th 2010 Richard Wilson Harvard University

  2. Introduction • We have been asked to consider the role of science in the next millenium • All too often our role has been pessimistic and critical. I will be deliberately optimistic • In 18th century Ned Ludd destroyed machinery because it was destroying jobs. The Luddites failed to stop the Industrial Revolution • We must distinguish the real from the imaginary complaints

  3. Picture of Luddite

  4. Brief History • 4000 years ago man used 300 watts limited to what he ate. • 3000 years ago man discovered fire, wood and charcoal for steel making. • 2000 years ago man domesticated animals . A horse does 10 times the work of a man and eats more foods than a man can. • 1000 years ago man used water wheels and windmills for milling corn

  5. The last millenium • 1250 Dutch windmills 20% efficient 2010 Modern windmills 40% efficient • 1000 UK bought “sea-coales” Sunderland to London • 1712 Newcomen’s Steam engine • 1750+ James Watt improved engine • 1830 “Portable” steam engine RailRoads • 1880 Internal combustion engine used oil  Cars • 1939-45 Nuclear fission opened new source

  6. King Coal’s Long Reign 1307 King Edward I of England objected to Coal “ …We instruct you to make public proclamation in the aforesaid of Southwark that all those who wish to operate kilns…should bake them in the customary fashion from brushwood or charcoal and henceforth should make absolutely no use of sea-coal” ~1327 King Edward II tortured the people fouling the air ~1390 King Richard II tried Taxing coal ~1420 King Henry V established Commission to study the matter I know of no commission report! After this, only talk for 5 centuries!

  7. King Coal still powerfulothers talk • 1600 England ran out of wood, coal took over • 1610 King James I (of England VI of Scotland) objected to “tobacco-drinking” • 1661 John Evelyn wrote :“this horrible smoake” • 1780 William Blake in his famous poem “ Jerusalem” talks about “ dark satanic mills” • ~ 1850 the Church talks too: • “From hell, Hull and Halifax, Good Lord Deliver us.” • 1920 Hetherington: • “ the solution to pollution is dilution” (tall chimney stacks) • ~ 1935 Real Measurements begin • December 1952: London Air pollution “incident”

  8. Controlling the Environment • 1952 December air pollution “incident” Daily Mean Pollution Concentration and Daily Numbers of Deaths During the London Fog Episode

  9. ~1960 A wave of optimism • Nino and Dick Garwin measure g – 2 • Russia builds first apartments since 1914 • USSR- USA scientists talk and make friends • Russian Astrophysicist Nicolai Kardashev proposes a scale • Carl Sagan and Freeman Dyson support him

  10. The Kardashev Scale • Type I a civilization harness all of the power available on planet • Type II a civilization harness all of the power available on a star • Type III a civilization harness all of the power available on a single galaxy

  11. Kardashev Number K = frac{\log_ {10}{W}^ -6} W: energy in tera watts

  12. K val = 0.49 in 1000 AD

  13. Aim for Type I by year 3000 AD Using more fossil fuels Running out? Environmental problems? Using more nuclear fission Public opposition and nuclear bombs Large scale application of fusion power Far more optimistic than our colleagues Jeff Ongena and Miyahara Antimatter The technological ability to collect antimatter in large quantities is unknown

  14. Solar Energy Converting sunlight into electricity by solar cells is inefficient The 100% efficiency would still demand coating the earth’s surface with man-made structures 10% conversion efficiency and covering 10% of the earth raise the Kardashev number to beyond 0.8 Collect solar energy in stratosphere and re-radiate to earth? (proposed by NASA in 1985) Dyson spheres and storms Hypothetical mega structures originally described by Freeman Dyson to completely enclose a star

  15. Social and Environmental Upheaval Few historians have expressed that: • Kardashev scale could potentially describe periods of social upheaval • Strong risk of self-destruction • Nuclear fission gets out of control Andrei Dimitreyvich Sakharov 1979: “ we must not stop progress” he thought that man kind is bright enough to control its’ progress.

  16. A Return to the Present Century The human race can accomplish such things. I admit to having been pessimistic! In 1939, Arthur Clark wrote about going to the moon I thought he was talking nonsense This was achieved (1939-1969) in 0.03 millenia Difficulty of going to the nearest galaxy We need a high velocity -v/c about 0.5 to get there in a lifetime Passing at that speed through of interstellar sea of hydrogen gives immense radiation damage This seems Insuperable

  17. Environmental concerns • Scientists must distinguish between real concerns and neo-Luddism: • ”stop the world. I want to get off”. • NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard • NIMNBY: Not in My Neighbor’s Back Yard • BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody” • Avoid Tilting at Windmills (Cervantes):

  18. Don Quixote

  19. I suggest that we can and should try to control the environment: whether man made or not • Kardashev Scale might be helpful in Major environmental catastrophes • Threat of Nuclear war • Threat of Major pandemic

  20. References • Kardashev, Nikolai (1964). "http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi‑bin/nph‑iarticle_query?db_key=AST&bibcode=1964SvA.....8..217K&letter=.&classic=YES&defaultprint • Sagan, Carl (October 2000) [1973]. Jerome Agel. ed. Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective. Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison. Cambridge Press. ISBN 05‑21‑7830‑38. http://books.google.com/?id=lL57o9YB0mAC&pg=PA156. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01. • World Energy Outlook. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. pp. 82. ISBN 92‑64‑1094‑98. http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2005/weo2005.pdf. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01. ] • "Key World Energy Statistics" (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2004. http://www.iea.org/dbtw‑wpd/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/keyworld2004.pdf. Retrieved 2006‑08‑10. • Quads: 1 quadrillion BTU • Mtoes: Million tonnes (metric tons) of oil equivalents • Dyson, Freeman J. (1966). "The Search for Extraterrestrial Technology". Perspectives in Modern Physics (New York: John Wiley & Sons). • Kaku, Michio (2005). Parallel Worlds: The Science of Alternative Universes and Our Future in the Cosmos. New York: Doubleday. pp. 317. ISBN 0713997281. • Dyson, Freeman J. Energy in the Universe Article in September 1971 Scientific American magazine (Special September Issue on Energy)

  21. Now I am finished , You may wake up 

More Related