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Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness. Bivariate Presentation POL 242 2008 Student. Rationale. Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict Work in other courses and earlier assignments Desire to understand effect of conflict on young people. Data Set. Israel 2003 Data Set

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Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

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  1. Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness Bivariate Presentation POL 242 2008 Student

  2. Rationale • Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict • Work in other courses and earlier assignments • Desire to understand effect of conflict on young people

  3. Data Set • Israel 2003 Data Set • N = 475

  4. Dependant Variable: Hawkishness • “Hawkishness” measures right wing views on national security • Created Index • Creation of Palestinian State • Negotiation even if Terror Persists • Diplomacy vs. Force • Belief the conflict will end • Labour or Likud on security • Alpha = .85

  5. Independent Variable: Age • Coded into 3 categories: • Under 30 (29.3%) • 30 to 54 (46.7%) • 55 and Older (24%)

  6. Hypothesis • X = Age • Y = Hawkishness • X  Y • As people get older they hold more hawkish views on national security • Young soldiers • Optimism • Left/Right political support

  7. Hawkishness by Age • TauB = -.0637 • Significance of Chi-square = .0777

  8. Preliminary Conclusions • Extremely weak negative relationship between Age and Hawkishness • Not statistically significant • Confirms Null Hypothesis • Explanations for negative result • Service in IDF • Separate Education • Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern Israel

  9. New Independent Variable: Religion • Coded into 4 categories: • Secular (50.1%) • Traditional (33.0%) • Religious (12.1%) • Haredi (4.8%)

  10. New Hypothesis • X = Religiosity • Y = Hawkishness • X  Y • More religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on National Security • Religious Connection to Land • Lack of Flexibility

  11. Hawkishness by Religiosity • TauC = .28 • Significance of Chi-Square = 0.000 • One-Way ANOVA: secular and traditional distinct, Religious and Haredi are not

  12. Conclusions • Confirms hypothesis - moderately strong relationship between Hawkishnes and Religiosity. • Statistically Significant • Haredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but Secular, Traditional and Religious do • Extremely high hawkishness among Haredi • Exemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980, Ben-Porat et al)

  13. Future Questions • Age and Hawkishness • Specific Israeli conditions or military service? • Religion and Hawkishness • Specific to Israel or generalizable? • Lebanon war vs. controlling “greater Israel”

  14. Appendix: Syntax • *code and test index* • missing values A19 (4) • recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalSt • recode A14 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negot • recode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into TlkFrce • recode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEnd • recode A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLik • recode A49 (1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into Right • RELIABILITY • /VARIABLES=PalStNegotTlkFrceConfEndLabLik Right • /SCALE(all) ALL • /SUMMARY=all • compute rawindex = PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right • recode rawindex (0 thru 2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 = 2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawk • value labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'. • *Hawkishness vs. Age* • crosstab tables=hawk by AGE • /cells=column count /statistics=BTAU chisq • oneway hawk by AGE(1,3) • /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all • *Hawkishness vs. Religiosity* • crosstab tables=hawk by B91 • /cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq • oneway hawk by B91(1,4) • /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all

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