Severe Winter Storm Hits Puget Sound Creating Major Air Quality Event

1. Severe Winter Storm Hits Puget SoundCreating Major Air Quality Event Presented At EPA Air Quality Conference Orlando FL Feb 2007

2. What we will do today • Overview of PSCAA • Discuss our Wood Smoke Curtailment program • Review the Air Quality Impacts from a Dec 2006 windstorm • Show preliminary findings on new ventilation forecasts

3. The Event • In mid December 2006 a strong pacific storm hit the Pacific Northwest. • Hurricane force winds, heavy precipitation caused damage to most parts of western Washington • Downed trees created widespread power outages leaving more than 750,000 residents without power or heat. • Following the storm’s passed synoptic conditions stabilized rapidly providing the mechanism for trapping pollution. • Many residents changed their normal practices, compelled to heat their homes with varied wood burning sources.

4. The Event • Air Quality conditions rapidly declined into unprecedented levels of unhealthy air impacting several a million Puget Sound residents. • Air Quality control decisions faced in this event • Communication challenges in shifting focus towards outdoor burning concerns • Return on investments • New questions raised regarding long term solutions in replacing fireplaces and uncertified devices

5. Wind Storm Aftermath- Dec 2006 No Starbucks Send help!

6. Issaquah- Visual Air Quality

7. Puget Sound Clean Air Agency • Local government agency serving: • King • Pierce • Snohomish • Kitsap • Services include: • Enforcement • Permitting • Monitoring & Forecasting • Data • Air Quality Planning • Outreach

8. Agency Products • http://www.pscleanair.org/airq/aqi.aspx • http://trendgraphing.pscleanair.org/ • http://www.pscleanair.org/airq/visibility/default.aspx

9. Not just a weather forecast!!! • Human factors are strong modifiers of anticipated air quality for a particular suite of model guidance. • Post windstorm • Products • Daily Air Quality predictions • Based on EPA’s AQI • “Representative of “Neighborhood Scale” • Heavy reliance on a suite of “valued added” mesoscale decision aids. • Adapted by Atmospheric Sciences at U of Washington • Feedback from users • “Rapid response to problems

10. Wind Storm Aftermath- Dec 2006

11. Our Wood Smoke Curtailment Program • Winter Program Based on : • Forecast weather pattern • Pollution levels • Washington State RCW establishes criteria. Key factors: • PM 2.5 monitoring levels • Profiler observations • Time duration of stagnant pattern • NWS forecast discussion • Mesoscale forecast guidance

12. Wood Smoke Curtailment- 2 Stage program • Meteorological Guidelines • NWS Air Stagnation Advisory • Inversion and light winds • Expected to last 72Hours or longer • Air Quality Criteria • Based on PM 2.5µgm3 • 24 hour running average is 35gm3 or higher • Stage one Burn Ban • 24 hour running average is 60µgm3 or higher • Stage two Burn Ban

13. NWS – Air Stagnation Outlook/Advisory

15. Wind Storm Creates Major Air Quality Event

16. Eastside Wood Smoke

17. Typical Burn Ban vertical temperature profile

18. Post Storm Inversion

26. Wind Storm Creates Major Air Quality Event

27. Lessons Learned • Many people have wood burning devices that they do not routinely use • The post storm meteorology did not support the type of air quality level observed given normal public behavior • Our Agency chose to deviate from Burn Ban protocols until power was restored. • Need to rapidly communicate concerns regarding outdoor burning

28. Lessons Learned • Monitoring Network Infrastructure was rapidly restored and provided detailed operational information. • Forecasts were provided to the public via TV Meteorologists, subscribers network, Website. • As power was restored air quality improved.

29. Ventilation Products • Two Approach’s • PBL x 20m wind averaged (3hr,12,24hr) • Brunt Vaisala Stability averaged (3hr,12,24hr) • Challenges • Describe in plain terms to users • Overly conservative labeling masks degree of ventilation (PBL x 20m wind) • Used by non-meteorologists to make field/forest burning decisions

30. Ventilation Forecast

31. BV Ventilation

32. Ventilation forecast

33. BV Ventilation

34. BV Ventilation is becoming an important forecasting tool • Began analysis in Oct 2006 • Daily evaluation of forecasts vs monitoring data • Applied to PM 2.5 forecasts • Based on 24hr averaged forecasts • Average results across entire PSCAA network • Objective determine significance of indices intervals

35. BV Ventilation is becoming an important forecasting tool • Preliminary results • BV Indices • 100% if >800= PM 2.5 < 15ugm3 (Good AQI) • 89% if >400 = PM 2.5 < 15ugm3 (Good AQI) • 74% if < 400 = PM 2.5 > 15ugm3 (Moderate AQI) • 34% if < 200= PM2.5 > 35ugm3(USG AQI) • 44% if < 150 = Pm2.5 > 35ugm3 (USG AQI)

36. BV Ventilation • Potential Ventilation Categories • Based 24 hour averages for single days • > 800 = Excellent Ventilation • > 400 = Good Ventilation • > 200 = Limited Ventilation • > 100 = Poor Ventilation • < 100 = Very Poor

37. Operational Products • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/ • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/descript/descript_main.html • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/gfsinit.aq.html • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/extendedgfsinit.html • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/soundings_d2.cgi?GFS+current_gfs+ps