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Voting Behavior II. Campaigns in Voting Theories. Campaigns in Voting Theories. Campaigns in Voting Theories. Campaigns in Voting Theories. Campaigns in Voting Theories. Funnel of Causality. Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions

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funnel of causality
Funnel of Causality

Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions

Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions

Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results

Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities

Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties

Vote choice

social class
Social class
  • 1992:
    • Lowest quintile income: 37% more D than R
    • 2nd lowest: 33% more D
    • Middle: 23% more D
    • 2nd highest: 3% more D
    • Highest: 9% more R
    • Union household 30% more D
    • Non-union household 4% more D
education
Education
  • In 1992:
    • Less than high school: 39% more D than R
    • High School grad: 22% more D
    • Some college +: 1% more R
gender
Gender
  • In 1992:
    • Male: 1% more D than R
    • Female: 16% more D than R
  • In 2004:
    • Male: 1% more D than R
    • Female: 11% more D than R
    • Gender Gap in Party ID: 10%
religion
Religion
  • In 1992:
    • Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D
    • Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R
    • Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R
    • Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D
    • Committed Catholic 31% more D
    • Nominal Catholic 28% more D
    • Jewish 64% more D
    • Non-religious 18% more D
funnel of causality18
Funnel of Causality

Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions

Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions

Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results

Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities

Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties

Vote choice

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