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One last negative ad

One last negative ad. Rated most effective of 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxqjAejRF94. Voter Turnout. Who votes, who doesn’t? Why? Why a decline? Is there a decline? What proposals to increase turnout?. Voter Turnout in US. Is there a turnout problem? In US

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One last negative ad

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  1. One last negative ad • Rated most effective of 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxqjAejRF94

  2. Voter Turnout • Who votes, who doesn’t? • Why? • Why a decline? • Is there a decline? • What proposals to increase turnout?

  3. Voter Turnout in US • Is there a turnout problem? • In US • about 50-55% vote in presidential elections • up in 2004 % 2008 (60%) • about 30% vote in congressional elections • Washington state above the national average

  4. Voter Turnout • In the US • a steady decline (maybe) • turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960 • turnout much lower now than 1900 • why ?? • today, a lower % of eligible voters participate • farmore eligible voters now

  5. Turnout Trend 1948 - 2000 • High rates 1952 - 1968 • Decline post 1972 M. McDonald data

  6. Turnout Trend through 2008 • Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout • Since 1980 • Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population M. McDonald data

  7. Voter Turnout • 1896 90%  drop to 62% in 1904 • voter registration laws • Jim Crow laws • 1916 61%  drop to 42% in 1920 • suffrage to women • size of eligible electorate doubled • 1936 59%  drop to 51% in 1948 • WWII • 1968 60%  drop to 52% 1972 • suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

  8. Voter Turnout in US • 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962) • 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966) • 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970) • 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986) • 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990) • 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998) • 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

  9. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline since 1890s? • Old numbers from a different context • high mobilization • labor intensive parties • limited pool of eligible voters • fraud • more mobilization then vs. now?

  10. Voter Turnout in US • Why a declinesince 1960s? • Demise of parties • campaigns now capital intensive (ads) • less direct contacts w/ voters • candidate centered politics • “party building” efforts (soft money) for GOTV had little effect

  11. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Demise of competition • Fewer US House races competitive now vs. 1960s • even with demise of one-party south • Fewer state legislative seats competitive • Campaign activity concentrated in rare, competitive districts (and states)

  12. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Demise of Competition • Effects of competition • 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout • ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more • 2 initiatives = 1% more • Senate race, Gov race...

  13. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Increase in 2004 & 2008 • Why; stakes higher? • some new issue? • candidate effects?

  14. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Regulatory barriers • 30 day advance registration • vote only on day of election • must vote at specific location • limits on use of mail, absentee ballots • Prohibition on felons voting

  15. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline • Regulator barriers • What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)? • Seven states • 4.5% increase in presidential elections • 2.0% increase in midterm

  16. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming (ND doesn’t require registration) • Bill in WA (SB 6778) • 2008 10 days before election • 2009 5 days before • 2010 day of election in WA

  17. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Why bother? • makes voting more convenient • Who will take advantage? • ??? • ???

  18. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Proponents: • Democratic Party • Opponents: • County Auditors • Bureaucratic nightmare • requires more staff • vote provisional ballot? • check if registered/voted in other county

  19. Voter Turnout • Felon disenfranchisement • Two states do not ban from voting (Maine and Vermont) • Some states restore after release / probation (ex Felons) • Some states make ban permanent (unless govt. approves individual’s restoration)

  20. Voter Turnout • Felon Laws • Adoption corresponds with extension of rights to Black Americans • Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws • By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws • another spike in adoption 1960s

  21. Voter Turnout • Effects of Felon laws • There might not be a decline in turnout • Levels of criminal punishment in US way, way up • More felons than ever (Why??) • 1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000 • was .5% before 1982 • 8% of US Voting age population by 2000 • up from 2% in 1966

  22. Voter Turnout in the US • Why a decline • Regulatory Barriers • Not a factor growing over time • Easier to register now, easier to vote by mail • EDR explains variation in an election, not since 1960.

  23. Voter Turnout in US • Maybe no decline? • Yes, lower 1972 than 1948 - 1968 • Decline mostly outside of south • Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline • VAP vs. VEP....

  24. Turnout by Age • Not quite linear • Young voters lowest turnout • Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

  25. Turnout by Age • Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate • Greatest under-representation in voting

  26. Turnout by Age • Under-representation? • Youth vote by party • 2000 51% Dem • 2004 54% Dem • 2008 66% Dem

  27. Voter Turnout • So why don’t young people vote? • efficacy • life experiences re: politics • campaigns don’t care about them? • MTV ‘Rock to Vote’ a flop? • youth vote way up in place where competitive races (stakes are higher) • youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

  28. Voter Turnout • So, who votes? • See Dalton, Chpt. 3 • Education • Age (old people rule) • Cohort and life cycle effects • Partisans (not independents) • Income (see ‘Big Tilt’) • Efficacy • OK, so what drives efficacy

  29. Voter Turnout • When & Why do they vote? • Regular voters • older people and well educated • Peripheral voters • younger people and less-educated

  30. Voter turnout • Competitive elections mobilize • larger effect on young & less educated • Presidential race 2004 • person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting • person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.

  31. Voter Turnout • Midterm election (2002) • 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate race = .37 prob. of voting • 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate race .77 prob. of voting • for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

  32. Voter Turnout in US • What difference would it make if turnout was higher? • Composition of electorate change? • EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate • Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone • greater effect on young, less educated

  33. Voter Turnout in US • What happens if higher turnout • and low participating groups show up? • Young people • Less affluent • Ex-felons

  34. Voter Turnout • Uggen & Manza • Because felons are drawn from ranks of poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems. • Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed • Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws • Thus changed composition of US Courts

  35. Young voters nominated Obama • Young voters (under 30 in 2004) • Born post 1975 = 60% D, 30% R • Born 1943 - 58 = 44% D, 46% R • 2008 Primaries • Ds NH 18-24 60% Obama, 22% HRC • Ds NH over 65 32% Obama, 48% HRC • Ds FL 18-24 49% Obama, 39% HRC • Ds FL over 65 24% Obama, 59% HRC • Ds IA 17 - 29 57% Obama, 11% HRC • Ds IA over 65 18% Obama, 45% HRC

  36. Voter Turnout • Dem primaries: Obama won where youth turnout reduced age gap • 28% over 65 in FL, 5 % under 25 • 13% over 65 in NH, 11% under 25 • 25% over 65 in IA, 22% under 27 • 26% over 60 in MI, 8% under 25

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