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Understanding Probability of Occurrence: A Guide for Airport Safety Management Systems

This workshop aims to explore the probability of occurrence within Safety Management Systems (SMS) for airports. Participants will learn to assess various levels of risk, ranging from extremely unlikely to catastrophic events. We will discuss the qualitative and quantitative aspects of occurrence probabilities, and analyze severity levels related to people, materials, and time of exposure. This session will also cover risk analysis matrices to enhance decision-making in safety management, ensuring a safer environment for airport operations.

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Understanding Probability of Occurrence: A Guide for Airport Safety Management Systems

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  1. Probability of occurrence Definition Extremely unlikely Extremely remote Remote Reas. likely Freq. Qualitative Should never occur Unlikely to occur Could occur some time Could occur several times Could occur frequently Quantitative: Operations < 10-9 10-7 a 10-9 10-5 a 10-7 10-3 a 10-5 1 a 10-3 Workshop on SMS for Airports - Help

  2. Severity levels Severity Within the scope of: People Material Time of exposure Low Lack of skill Inoperability Short Moderate Minor injury Partial damage Temporary Dangerous Serious injury Serious damage Long Catastrophic Death Unrec. damage ---- Workshop on SMS for Airports - Help

  3. Risk analysis matrix Probability of occurrence Catast. Ext. unlik. Ext. remote Remote Rea. lik. Freq. Dangerous Unaccep. Unaccept. Unaccep. Unac. Revision Severity Moderate Unac. Unaccep. Revision Revision Unaccep. Low Acceptable Revision Revision Revision Rev. Acceptable Acceptable Accept. Accept. Rev. Workshop on SMS for Airports - Help

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