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NASA Presentation to Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research. David Toll 1 , Stephen Ambrose 2, , Jared Entin 3 , and Christa Peters-Lidard 4 1-Hydrological Sciences NASA/GSFC Deputy Program Manager, Water Resources 2- NASA/HQ/Applied Sciences Program
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NASA Presentation to Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research
David Toll1, Stephen Ambrose2, , Jared Entin3,
and Christa Peters-Lidard4
1-Hydrological Sciences NASA/GSFC
Deputy Program Manager, Water Resources
2- NASA/HQ/Applied Sciences Program
Disaster Management and Water Resources
3-NASA/HQ/Earth Science Division
Terrestrial Hydrology and NASA Energy and Water Cycle Program Manager
4-NASA/GSFC, Head, Hydrological Sciences Branch
17 Sept. 2008
Uses by Partners
- Global Soil Moisture
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)
Hurricane Ike in Cuba--Heavy, but not extreme rain, flooding (calculated from hydrological model) and landslide potential (from real-time landslide algorithm) indicated along south side of mountains
24-hr Rain from TRMM Multi-satellite product
Mississippi River basin
Rodell et al.,
New estimates match groundwater well measurements in the U.S., and can be applied globally
Yeh et al., WRR, 2006
GRACE water storage, mm
January – December 2005 Loop
Model assimilated water storage, mm
January – December 2005 Loop
Zaitchik, Rodell, and Reichle, in preparation
Hydros/Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) Mission Planning
New space-based soil moisture observations and data assimilation modeling can improve forecasts of local storms and seasonal climate anomalies
NWP Rainfall Prediction
Seasonal Climate Predictability
Predictability of seasonal climate is dependent on boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture – soil moisture is particularly important over continental interiors.
Summer Rainfall differences: 1993 (flood) minus 1988 (drought)
0000Z to 0400Z 13/7/96
(Chen et al., 2001)
Without Realistic Soil Moisture
24-Hours Ahead High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Forecasts
Prediction driven by SST and soil moisture
Prediction driven just by SST
With Realistic Soil Moisture
High resolution soil moisture data will improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) over continents by accurately initializing land surface states
(Schubert et al., 2002)
-5 0 +5
Rainfall Difference [mm/day]
Stream Discharge and Surface Water Height
Laser Altimetry Concept
e.g. ICESat (GSFC)
Radar Altimetry Concept
e.g. Topex/Poseidon over Amazon R.
Coincident w/ river reach
NLDAS and GLDAS
North American LDAS
1/8 Degree Resolution
Mitchell et al., JGR, 2004
1/4 Degree Resolution
Rodell et al., BAMS, 2004
Land Information System (http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov)
Multi-Resolution Ensemble LDAS Software Framework
Kumar et al., EMS, 2006
LIS Running Modes
Land Sfc Models
CLM, VIC, HYSSiB)
Kumar, S. V., C. D. Peters-Lidard, J. L. Eastman and W.-K. Tao, 2008. An integrated high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling testbed using LIS and WRF. Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 23, 169-181.
Land Surface Models
Data Assimilation Modules
Eta soil moisture
LIS soil moisture
Difference (LIS – Eta)
Sea Breeze Evolution Difference(1800 UTC 6 May to 0300 UTC 7 May)
Case, Jonathan L., William L. Crosson, Sujay V. Kumar, William M. Lapenta, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, 2008. Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Regional Sensible Weather Forecasts from the WRF Model. In press, Journal of Hydrometeorology.
Sea Breeze Evolution Difference(Meteogram plots at 40J and CTY)
Mapping Evaporation and Moisture Stress from Space Using Thermal Remote Sensing (Anderson and others)
Latent Heat (Wm-2)
As the Earth has warmed, what has happened to Earth’s water resources?
● Precipitation Intensity Increases
● Increased floods and droughts & intensity
● Snowfall decrease
● Earlier runoff
● Melting of ice sheets and glaciers
● Sea level rise
● Increase in hurricanes and intensity
● Regional Climate Modeling (Left)
- Examples from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Left)
● Statistical Down Scaling Modeling
- Regional Ensemble Multi-Model
- Percent likelihoods for Precipitation & Temperature
- Land Data Assimilation Systems Hydrologic Modeling (Streamflow, ET, Snowpack, etc.)
- Climate Impacts for Hydro-Power, Dams and Levees, Snow Pack, Agriculture Planning, Groundwater Depletion, etc.
CCSR, GISS, UCONN
FLOODS & STREAMFLOW FORECASTING
- NOAA led examining improved streamflow for River Forecast Centers.
- Using NASA satellite and modeling products for Seasonal Forecast in W. US
- NASA-NOAA-USGS Flash Flood Project.
- NASA Snow Products and LIS for NOAA Snow and Water Forecast
IRRIGATION & WATER DELIVERY
Three projects are currently addressing various aspects of improving ET estimates for use in the BoR AWARDS-ET Toolbox and similar DSTs. Focus on using MODIS data and LDAS/LIS estimates of ET & soil moisture.
Four Projects. Two using satellite (AMSR-E, Quickscat/Sea Winds and MODIS) and modeling/data assimilation products to improve the US Drought Monitor. Two other improving seasonal predictions and the downscaling of climate predictions for US Drought Outlook. In support of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Nonpoint source pollution project to assess the impact of MODIS land data products and impact of LIS precipitation and ET products to improve the continuous hydrologic model, HSPF, used in the EPA BASINS DST.
Integrate Land Components for Earth System Models
- Atmospheric (WRF/GCE/GFS/GEOS); Land Surface Models (LIS); Coastal/Ocean Models
Downscaling climate predictions to local/regional scales
- Hydrologic (streamflow, ET, snow)
- Including impacts, vulnerability and adaptations
Infusing short-term, seasonal and decadal forecasting information into decision tools
New Focus on Regional and Topical Area (Gulf Coast, Water Quality, Climate Impacts)
Water, Water, Water
- Consumption, industry, ecosystems, etc.
Water as the underlying element
- Drought, wildfires, energy production, agriculture
Assessing these InternationallyPriorities of the Future