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HIV/AIDS: Insight Into Its Impact Part-I Prasanta K. Saha, M.Sc., CSTAT (UK), FRSS (UK). Chartered Statistician [RSS-UK], Visiting Fellow: University of Hawaii [EWC], USA.
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Prasanta K. Saha,M.Sc., CSTAT (UK), FRSS (UK).
Chartered Statistician [RSS-UK],
Visiting Fellow: University of Hawaii [EWC], USA.
Ex-Professor: Asia-Pacific Institute of Management, New Delhi.Former Additional Director General (rank of Additional Secretary):
Ministry of Program Implementation & Statistics, Govt. of India, New Delhi.
Beforehand Chief Director: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare,
Government of India, Nirman Bhawan, New Delhi 110011.
E-mail: email@example.com , firstname.lastname@example.org
Before we analyze impact of HIV/AIDS, we need to discuss important features, concepts and definitions of this pandemic.
Very Interesting Features:
The phenomenon of HIV/AIDS surfaced first in the US in the June 5, 1981 issue of ‘Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report’ published by US Center of Disease Control, Atlanta.
The Horrific Impact
Epidemiology with reference to AIDS:
Role of ReliableData is extremely important:
Sources: Governments, NGO, academic institutions, private sector: 2 main bodies- UNAIDS and US Bureau of Census.
In most countries AIDS is not a notifiable disease: medical staff are not legally required to report cases.
Data on AIDS cases need to be collected consistently and in sufficient quantities.
-increased medical costs,
As we see, the importance of past epidemics is frequently referred to and discussed by experts. But there is some sort of insensitiveness towards impact of AIDS which is damaging many societies now.
It is found that the macroeconomic effects of HIV are on the
size and productivity of labor,
level of net savings and
rate of economic growth (Cohen 1992).
Since AIDS affects those in their most productive years, related morbidity and mortality reduce the quantity and quality of labor.
Depending on the type of labor affected, the impact on the national economy could occur more in the medium or short term, such as the case of shortages in export sectors leading to difficulties in balance of payment problems.
Thus Impact of AIDS results in
Impact onGDP or National Income:
A more comprehensive analysis in South Africa has also found growth of real GDP and per capita real GDP to be affected as a result of enhanced expenditure in health sector
Econometric estimates between HIV/AIDS and national economic performance, such as by (Bloom and Mahal 1997) have found that AIDS has a statistically insignificant effect on the growth of real per capita income.
There is an undoubted relationship between poverty and the development of epidemics of communicable disease and at the same time epidemic disease, like any illness, has the potential to increase poverty (Stillwagon, 2001).
According to a new World Bank study released in New York in July, 2003 ( Berthelsen 2003), while the world has focused on the human tragedy of AIDS, the fact is that economically it is far more damaging than had been thought earlier, and could result in the outright collapse of some economies if it is not checked. This study says that if AIDS were to continue unchecked, it could wreck a society in three generations.
Sector - level Impact:
Example: Africa and Indian states with more concentrated epidemics are likely to experience such an impact.
Sector - level Impact:
Labor intensive sectors, on the other hand, may be adversely affected by the HIV epidemic in several ways. In agriculture, for example, decreased productivity could potentially translate into a decline in labor inputs and increased expenses related to morbidity and mortality (Bloom et al 2004).
Labor sector continued
The workforce is likely to be affected by absenteeism, health care and added recruitment/training costs, lost knowledge and damaged morale (Bloom et al 2004). Increased expense on insurance, depending on company policy for HIV-infected individuals, may also affect private industry.
Preliminary research demonstrates that morbidity and mortality of HIV-positive adults inflict a cost that cannot be measured simply by loss of income. Members of HIV/AIDS affected households may have lower long-run accumulation of human capital as measured by education and health (Bloom et al 2004 and citations therein).
Time of impact-consequence:
Demographic Impact :
Demographic Impact-continued :