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CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS . Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 5 th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland, Oregon October 10-11, 2007. Outline. Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together Recent changes to the Drought Outlook Verification: How are we doing?

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cpc drought forecasting and nidis

CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS

Douglas Le Comte

NOAA/CPC

5th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

Portland, Oregon

October 10-11, 2007

outline
Outline
  • Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together
  • Recent changes to the Drought Outlook
  • Verification: How are we doing?
  • The Future: Meeting the Needs of NIDIS
latest seasonal drought outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Latest Seasonal Drought Outlook
principal drought outlook inputs
Principal Drought Outlook Inputs

2-Wk Soil Moisture

CPC Long-Lead

Precip. Outlook

Constructed Analogue Soil Model

Palmer 4-mo

Probabilities

Medium-Range Fcst

recent changes
Recent Changes
  • Began twice/month schedule (1st and 3rd Thursday)
  • Expanding CPC authors
  • Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)
changes recently considered
Changes Recently Considered
  • Add separate category for drought intensification
  • Abolish or re-define “Some Improvement” category
  • Automate verification calculations
slide9
Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts

Long-term mean = 13%

nidis and drought forecasting from the nidis implementation plan june 2007
NIDIS and Drought ForecastingFrom the NIDIS Implementation Plan, June 2007
  • “Ensemble drought prediction is needed to maximize forecast skill, and downscaling is needed to bring coarse resolution drought forecasts from General Circulation Models down to the resolution of a watershed.”
  • “Improved understanding of the dynamical causes of long-term trends….”
  • Two basic approaches to drought prediction: 1) prediction of drought indices, and 2) prediction of hydrological conditions.
fy08 climate test bed priority for nidis drought
FY08 Climate Test Bed Priority for NIDIS-Drought
  • New Drought Monitoring Products: Multi-model ensemble NLDAS
  • New Drought Forecast Tools:
    • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools
    • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling
    • Improved medium-range prediction

based on NAEFs

princeton soil moisture forecast
Princeton Soil Moisture Forecast

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Coupled Forecast System

university of washington forecasts

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtmlhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml

University of Washington Forecasts
two path approach to improving drought forecasts at cpc
Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC
  • Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public
  • Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)
prediction is very difficult especially about the future niels bohr danish physicist not yogi berra
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)