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Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico. Dale T. Manning UC-Davis. USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 2013. Why care about fuel use?. Health Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA Environmental impacts

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migration and fuel use in rural mexico

Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico

Dale T. Manning

UC-Davis

USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

July 2013

why care about fuel use
Why care about fuel use?
  • Health
      • Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA
  • Environmental impacts
      • Forest depletion, erosion, loss of habitat/biodiversity
      • National parks less effective if people depend park’s resources
  • Climate change
      • Wood: 0.39 kg CO2 per kWh
      • Coal: 0.37 kg CO2 per kWh
      • Kerosene: 0.26 kg CO2 per kWh
  • Quality of life
      • Time-consuming activity, TOC

http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/co2-emission-fuels-d_1085.html

2 theories of fuel choice
2 theories of fuel choice
  • Fuel ladder
  • Fuel stacking
main contributions
Main contributions
  • Present theoretical model of fuel choice
  • Use model to show how migration changes fuel-choice incentives
  • Show empirical impact of out-migration on household fuel use
research question
Research question
  • How does rural out-migration affect fuel choice in rural Mexico?

Important because rural-urban migration is a part of development process!

theoretical framework
Theoretical framework
  • Household producer
      • Home-cooked food
      • Agriculture
  • Given capital
      • Woodstove, gas stove
  • Chooses inputs
      • Labor/leisure
      • ENERGY SOURCE—Firewood or gas?
theoretical framework1
Theoretical framework
  • Non-separable model
      • Imperfect labor markets
      • Non-marketed resource, home-cooked food
  • Household makes consumption and labor allocation decisions simultaneously
  • Energy inputs chosen to minimized cost of meeting energy needs required for optimized consumption
      • Cost of gas: market price
      • Cost of firewood: value of time
migration and labor allocation
Migration and labor allocation

$

Lto

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation1
Migration and labor allocation

$

VMP in Ag (market price)

VMP in resource collection (non-market)

Lto

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation2
Migration and labor allocation

$

VMP in Ag (market price)

VMP in resource collection (non-market)

Lto

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation3
Migration and labor allocation

$

VMP in Ag (market price)

VMP in resource collection (non-market)

Lto

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation4
Migration and labor allocation

$

What happens when a migrant goes to the US?

Lto

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation5
Migration and labor allocation

$

1. Less total time available

Ltm

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation6
Migration and labor allocation

$

2. Demand for firewood can change

Ltm

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

migration and labor allocation7
Migration and labor allocation

$

Theoretically ambiguous net impact

(will likely decrease)

Ltm

Ag labor

Firewood Collection

theoretically ambiguous
Theoretically ambiguous
  • Investigate empirically
  • Rural Mexico
      • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico
      • Representative of ruralMexico
      • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions
      • 1543 households
rural population of mexico
Rural Population of Mexico

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html

2010 rural population: 25,179,916

as a percentage of total
As a percentage of total

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html

econometric estimation
Econometric estimation

Natural log of days per year collecting firewood

:

Indigenous

Education

Year

Household size

Hh income

Community wage

=1 if household has member in US

 IV with networks

econometric estimation1
Econometric estimation

Natural log yearly gas expenditure

:

Indigenous

Education

Year

Household size

Hh income

Community wage

=1 if household has member in US

 IV with networks

results2
Results

Without a migrant, spend about 3 times as many person-days per year collecting firewood!

Average is ~121 days

results5
Results

Approximately double gas expenditure!

results8
Results

Increase probability of having a gas stove by ~33%!

Impact on gas expenditure larger when controlling for selection (Heckman)

results summar y
Results summary
  • Households with US migrant spend less time collecting firewood
  • Spend more on gas
  • More likely to have a gas stove
  • But they don’t stop collecting firewood
implications for policy
Implications for policy
  • Gas stove investment can be an obstacle
  • Households will use gas if it is cheaper
      • Can lower price of gas (e.g., improve delivery)
      • Increase perceived cost of firewood (health effects)
      • Increase opportunity cost of time
  • Households may add gas into fuel mix without switching completely
  • Beware of firewood markets
      • Especially if common-property resource
      • Conventional management may become easier
background
Background
  • Fuel use/firewood collection connected to other sectors
      • Agriculture
      • Labor market development
  • Proposed theories:
      • Fuel ladder
      • Fuel stacking
slide37
Data
  • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico
      • PRECESAM, Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim (REAP)
  • 2002, 2007
  • Representative of rural Mexico—populations from 500 to 2499 people
  • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions
  • 1543 households, 10 states in 2010