What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? Some Food for Thought!

1. What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs?Some Food for Thought! Robert Shaw Deputy Head, ITU Strategy and Policy Unit Workshop: What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? 23-24 March 2006 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

2. Agenda • Drivers for this workshop • Some “Food for Thought”!

3. Drivers for this Workshop • On NGN technical standardization, ITU fully engaged • However, clear that convergence generally and IP-enabled NGNs means wave of major challenges for national policy makers and regulators • We want to build an international dialogue on these issues including: • building understanding of impact of convergence & NGNs • sharing of national experiences and approaches • assistance in capacity building with developing economies in transitioning to this new paradigm • understanding how policy & regulatory requirements impact ITU’s NGN Global Standards Initiative (NGN-GSI)

4. Some Food for Thought!

5. The Impact of New Communications Technologies • Technology-driven industries like telecommunications historically characterized by steady growth punctuated by “giant leaps” forward, usually when “new” technology is introduced

6. This has happened a number of times • 1840’s: telegraph • 1870’s: telephone • 1890’s: radio telegraphy or “wireless” • 1920’s: radio broadcasting • 1950’s: television broadcasting • 1960’s: geostationary satellite communications • 1970’s: computer communications • 1980’s: optical communications • 1990’s: internet and mobile • 2000’s: IP-enabled NGNs or Next Generation Internet? 1865: ITU Created

7. Current big picture trends • Birth of Broadband • Growth in wireless networks and mobile data services • Mobile overtakes fixed • Convergence of IP-based networks with telephone & mobile networks • End game: towards ubiquitous, pervasive, grid, mesh, wireless networks • anywhere, anytime, anything • positive side of “Minority Report’

8. Predicting the future from the past… • When we look back over history at any advancement in electronic communication networks, we tend to forget about the highs and the lows, the boom-bust cycles and the failed predictions about likely usage • Is the internet killing the phone business? • Or is the internet killing itself?

9. History of the Internet 1990’s • Growth throughout OECD countries • Begun “privatisation” of backbone • Primarily a channel for the Web and email • Wide disparity in connectivity • “Dot.com” mania rules • Some thought internet was suitable platform to subsume all existing networks & services • Cocktail of over-investment, hyper-competition and technological change lead to telecoms & internet recession

10. Today (2006) • Internet demographics shifting rapidly to Asia-Pacific (largest share of Internet & mobile users) • Continued rapid innovation: • XML, Ajax, RSS, Torrents, Podcasts, Web 2.0 • Voice is just another application • but a number of clouds on internet horizon • if not “Perfect Storm”

11. Top Problems of the Internet • authentication • security • spam • scalable configuration management • robust scalability of routing system • compromise of e2e principle • dumb network • measurement • patch management • “normal accidents” • growth trends in traffic and user expectations • time management and prioritization of tasks • governance • intellectual property and digital rights • interdomain qos/emergency services • inter-provider vendor/business coordination why so persistently unsolvable? rooted in non-technical issues: economics, ownership, and trust Source: K.C. Claffy at http://www.caida.org/publications/presentations/2005/topproblemsnet/topproblemsnet.pdf

12. Perfect Storm? • “It's time for a clean-slate approach” • MIT's David D. Clark • “If fails to fail often enough so it looks like it works.” • Mike O’Dell • “The Internet is Broken”, David Talbot, Technology Review, Dec 2005/Jan 2006 in three parts: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 • E2E architecture means intelligence at edges of the network • so security is every user’s problem • Internet evangelists: “the internet empowers users to do anything you want!” • “O.K. I chose not to get spam” • Is this supposed to be the critical information infrastructure of tomorrow?

13. Are we approaching inflection point? • Deployment of new communications technologies is typically a series of relatively short cycles of one or two decades’ duration: • beginning with invention • early stages of rapid innovation and application • typically over-hyped and not used for original purpose intended • took 30 years for telephone killer app to emerge! • finally deployed in method that scales to support broader market acceptance and commoditization • it may not end up being platform for techies or innovation

14. Source: “The Transformation of Communications, Commerce & Society”, Stratton Sclavos, Verisign, Progress and Freedom Foundation Aspen Summit — August 2004

15. So how do IP-enabled NGNs fit into this?

16. ITU-T Definition of NGN (Y.2001) • Next Generation Network (NGN): a packet-based network able to provide telecommunication services and able to make use of multiple broadband, QoS-enabled transport technologies and in which service-related functions are independent from underlying transport-related technologies. • It enables unfettered access for users to networks and to competing service providers and/or services of their choice. • It supports generalized mobility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users.

17. Some different NGN visions • PSTN on steroids? Internet on steroids? • To fix the internet mess? • Revenge of the telcos? Walled gardens? • The mobile operators got it right… • Attempt to move “up the value chain” into data and audiovisual content • chasing video franchises • A public infrastructure instantiation of the internet? • replacement, evolution, co-existence?

18. NGN Intelligent Infrastructures • NGN core and access network infrastructures will be supplemented with an “intelligent infrastructure” or a “business layer” for IP networks capable of providing QoS, reliability and security assurances for multiple service scenarios across carriers • With security problems, imagine this will necessarily emerge “out-of-band” • Basis for identity, authentication, DRM, access to resources • And intercarrier/service compensation mechanisms…

19. NGN Public Infrastructure Requirements: what are some of capability requirements likely to be required? • Availability, Security and Legal • High availability • analysis of network metrics and outages • Network attack mitigation • Priority access during emergencies • Alerts and notices during emergencies • Restoration after emergencies • Personal emergency services • Preventing unwanted intrusions • Filters (DoNotCAll) • Aids (CallerID) • Law enforcement/judicial/national security assistance • Cybercrime mitigation • Forensics capability • Fraud detection and management • Digital rights management • Universal access • Competition Requirements • Unbundling • Service interoperability • User/subscriber access by service providers • Default service and routing options • Nomadicity • Number portability • Roaming • Payment method flexibility • Operations Requirements • Directory access among providers • Intercarrier compensation • Transaction accounting • Other Consumer Requirements • Disability assistance • Universal Service • Customer Proprietary Network Information (CPNI) protection See Tony Rutkowski’s presentation “Update on NGN Regulatory Issues” submitted to the workshop

20. Other visions of next generation service providers? • Mega-internet service providers? • Google, MSN, eBay and Yahoo • strong brands, deep pockets • entering voice markets • making forays into competitive infrastructure provisioning • has market already spoken? • but who pays for the underlying transport infrastructure?

21. Source: Geoff Huston, Convergence at http://www.ptc06.org/program/public/proceedings/Geoff Huston_slides_M21.pdf

22. And they also appear to be moving moving intelligence back into the center of the network… • Applications moving from PC to network core of network • do you use Windows or Linux? Think! • Google office suite, e.g., Writely • Microsoft Office Live • Is this the commoditization of the net? • Don’t have to worry about those backups! • Advertising driven (like TV & Radio) • Déjà vu all over again? • http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/dejavu.html

23. Interconnection • Technologies and architecture of IP-enabled NGNs are fundamentally different from the PSTN • This means new network topologies, associated costs and commercial models • It is also likely to lead to the development of new IP-based interconnection arrangements that are service-based, rather than capacity-based, particularly for latency-sensitive (isochronous) traffic.

24. Many issues… • What will be the impact on current interconnection arrangements? • What does interconnection mean in a multi-service NGN environment? • Is there a need for mandated wholesale interconnection regimes? • See Scott Marcus’ excellent extensive background paper reviewing PSTN & Internet interconnection to be presented here…

25. a fundamental question • In a multi-service communications environment, does it make sense to distinguish voice (including VoIP) as a service needing to be treated with a distinct set of policy, legislative and regulatory provisions?

26. Forebearance please… • Incumbent carriers state that commercial models for IP-enabled NGNs are at an early and evolutionary phase and that it is too early to discuss open access or wholesale mandated interconnection regimes. • Also argued that IP-enabled NGNs, particularly the deployment of high-speed access networks (e.g. VTTx, VDSL), require massive investments and that “national regulatory moratoria” for incumbents are appropriate • Capital markets seem to agree…

27. Others say not so fast… • Competitive providers argue the opposite, saying that regulators need to ask whether, in the absence of wholesale economic regulation, will market dynamics be sufficient to ensure a competitive environment? • They are worried that without immediate attention by regulators to NGNs, carriers will rapidly vertically integrate services and that bottlenecks will emerge for delivery of audiovisual content… • Is it just the traditional carriers that we need to be worried about?

28. Double standards? • “Let's see if I can summarize [network neutrality debates]. • BAD: Verizon and SBC want to charge for "premium" access to their network. • GOOD: Yahoo and AOL want to charge for "premium" access to their network/servers What am I missing here?” • Rick Adams, founder of UUNet, first US ISP

29. Further down the road: Content without Frontiers • Convergence is setting two very different regulatory cultures on a rapid collision course: the highly-interventionist regulatory culture of broadcasting and less interventionist (at least with regard to content) culture of telecommunications • Particularly sensitive topic as the regulation of audiovisual content industries is culturally embedded and tied to national regulatory regimes consistent with cultural and religious values • What about advertising, public broadcasting, content diversity (e.g., support for national content production), licensing, quality, decency and protection from abusive uses and community standards? • What are the implications for trade in cross-border audio-visual services?

30. To sum up, it looks like we have much to talk about!

31. Thank you International Telecommunication Union Helping the world communicate