Sirkka Heinonen

1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions – Government Foresight Process and Its Evaluations Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre Helsinki Office University of Turku

2. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Background • Since 1990’s each Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report on major future challenges • Prime Minister’s Office is in charge of work for each foresight report, carried out in co-operation with relevant ministries and other public organizations • A large group of experts (research institutes, private companies, NGOs) is consulted during the process • 2008-2009 government foresight report on climate and energy policy • Several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change were commissioned • Things investigated: prerequisites for limiting climate change globally, cost-effectiveness of climate policy, mainstreaming of climate perspective

3. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario process • Government foresight report included a scenario process • To depict 4 possible end states and corresponding paths that would lead Finland to Low-carbon Society in 2050 • Purpose: to reflect various possibilities to achieve sustainable future while maintaining the current standard of living • Comparison of scenarios: discussion which paths are favourable • A Priori Desired goals for 2050: • development that will contribute to limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 C° at the most • Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 % from levels of 1990

4. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions The use of backcasting as a Scenario method • The use of backcasting was specifically predetermined • The envisioned future state was set (accomplishing two-degree target without significant loss in welfare) • opposite of forecasting – predicting the future based on current trend analysis (using trend extrapolation) “from now to then” • backcasting envisions futures from opposite direction “from then to now” = coming back from the future to the present • aims to illustrate the logical path that is required in order to reach a given future state = what has to precede • A desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as continuation of present trends, but as a giant leap directly to the future (with a subsequent link of logic steps preceding it)

5. Giant Leap to Finland 2050 of Low Emissions

6. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Backcasting Scenario The use of backcasting as a method notable in two aspects • 1) by its nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target-orientated) i.e. adopted for search for preferred futures (Robinson 1982) • 2) growing interest in BCS in Finland notable, but only a few made • Backcasting approach frequently used in countries like • the Netherlands, Canada, Australia (Dunlop 2009), and Sweden (Åkerman 2011) • BC applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios

7. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario process A number of basic assumptions based on previous research were set before the scenario work (to apply behind all development paths): • The population in Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5.3 million to 5.7million by 2050 • The Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change • Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050 • The prices of fossil fuels will rise and the cost of utilising renewable energy sources will decline • The Finns’ values will change and preparedness to take action to restrict emissions will increase • Climate change will alter the conditions in Finland by 2050: the need for heating energy will diminish and the agricultural growing period will become longer

8. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario process Methodology • All stages were conducted within a timeframe of 4 months • The process was carried out as a concise Delphi process consisting of 2 rounds of questionnaires and 2 future workshops • These 4 elements formed an integral process where in each stage a deeper understanding of future-affecting socio-technical interconnections emerged • Thus enabling a more precise view of the possible paths towards sustainable futures • a team of experts invited by PMO 140 people wide range of expertise relevant to climate an energy issues (researchers, officials, business repr, NGO)

9. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Progress of the scenario process

10. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario work The first Round of Delphi • The first Delphi Round: to collect views of the expert group to provide a basis for scenario work • most important questions: • estimations on the importance and possibilities of the most important energy consuming sectors (transport, housing, industry) in cutting down GHG’s • how much trouble the Finns are willing to saccept in exchange for more sustainable future • Many open questions for explaining how and through what kind of mechanism the future unfolds.

11. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario work The first Futures Workshop • Task was to collect views and visions on the ways to achieve the low emission future. • one day in three consecutive phases: • 1) The imaginary phase (futures wheel), • 2) The systematising phase (futures table), and • 3) The explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050) • a lot of material produced to form the building blocks for the four scenarios that were to be determined as a result of the whole foresight process.

12. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario work The second Round of Delphi • Based on the material from the preceding two phases: 1st Delhi Round + 1st Futures Workshop • developed further to form four distinctive scenario drafts (FFRC team as back office work) • scenario drafts introduced to the panellists • to assess their qualities: credibility, desirability, as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario • to improve the drafted scenarios • to fill the gaps in the information needed to form a solid general view of the future • additional questions focused on possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors

13. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Scenario work The second Futures Workshop • Task was to envision necessary steps and actions leading to the desired futures • Method was to come back and forth with the present and the future • Goal was to view, assess and complete the scenarios • Final results were the 4 scenarios that fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 % from levels of 1990

14. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions The four final scenarios • Efficiency Revolution • (concentration on diminishing energy consumption) • 2. Sustainable Daily Mile • (concentration on restraining urban sprawl) • 3. Be Self-Sufficient (concentration on self-sufficiency) • 4. Technology is the Key • (business-as-usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralized energy production and increased use of nuclear power)

15. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Description of the constructed scenarios

16. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Description of the constructed scenarios

17. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Description of the constructed scenarios

18. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Description of the constructed scenarios

19. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Description of the constructed scenarios

20. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions The core message about the factors influencing whether or not the set targets will be attained • considerable changes required in attitudes and ways of acting of both the citizens, as well as different industries • areas facing the biggest pressure to change: energy intensive industry, polluting energy industry (esp. peat), transport and logistics, construction, meat production, and travelling • PESSIMISM most often mentioned hindrances: cynicism (small country – global problem, why bother), scattered community structure, motoring as everyman’s right, one family houses as ideal • OPTIMISM (positive factors in Finnish society favouring the attainment of climate policy goals): Finns’ close relation to nature, genuine will to work for the environment, obedience to law, good technological knowhow, abundant resources of biofuels, infrastructure from forest to industry already in place, Finns already recycle

21. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions External and Internal Evaluations • Internal evaluation of the effectiveness of the preparation process, in general and the usability of foresight in policy planning • Two external evaluations: • Official statement by Committee for the Future (2011): support and attention on three aspects i. forest, food, water, biopolitics; ii. Innovations, courage, pioneering; iii. Economy, employment, entrepreneurship, wellbeing. Special focus on green growth (esp. wood production and exports, job creation). • Criticism: why the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement chosen as the only starting point? • 2) Expert evaluation (Wilenius 2011): extent of constructing the scenarios unique and pioneering, recommendation for further use, how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences in more detail, Minister of Climate and Energy for next gov.! Deeper focus on economic implications of climate and energy policy (employment, industrialisation, investments, and education policy)

22. Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions Conclusions • Retrospective event by Prime Minister’s Office March 29, 2011. Government Climate Policy Specialist OrasTynkkynen: • major breakthrough achievement to have Finland committed to reducing emissions by at least 80% by 2050 • Wide public debate launched on low emissions communities and low carbon society – long-term narratives with one robust national goal: Finland of low emissions 2050! • Possibility of degrowth economy was raised during the scenario work, but was not given enough chance to be further discussed in 2008 • Challenging task: scenario work needs time and resources! • Open question: how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in government foresight report • Measures and steps for reaching the goal will continue to be discussed

23. Thank You! Sirkka Heinonen Professor of Futures Studies Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) University of Turku Helsinki Office: Korkevuorenkatu 25 A 2 00130 Helsinki Head of Future of Media and Communications sirkka.heinonen at tse.fi