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What We Know About Assessment of Risk of Recidivism and Criminogenic Needs of Offenders: Why and How to Do Assessments?. Robin J. Wilson, PhD, ABPP dr.wilsonrj@verizon.net. Risk Assessment.

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What We Know About Assessment of Risk of Recidivism and Criminogenic Needs of Offenders: Why and How to Do Assessments?

Robin J. Wilson, PhD, ABPP

dr.wilsonrj@verizon.net

risk assessment
Risk Assessment
  • Risk assessment is the process of identifying the probability or likelihood of future dangerousness or harm, such as a sexual offense or domestic assault.
  • In our general practice, Risk Assessment is concerned with predicting the degree of possibility of a re-offense for someone with a known history of offending.
why assess risk
Why Assess Risk?
  • Promoting public safety
  • Guiding routine interventions
  • Targeting scarce resources
    • Staff time
    • Treatment
  • Exceptional measures
risk dangerousness
Risk & Dangerousness

BAD: “This person is dangerous.”

GOOD: “If specific risk factorsarepresent, then there is a high/medium/lowprobability that the person will engage in specificbehaviourwithin a specific period of time that may place specific personsat risk for a specific type and severity of harm.”

static stable acute risk factors definitions
Static, Stable, & Acute Risk FactorsDefinitions
  • Static – Non-changeable life factors that relate to risk for sexual recidivism, generally historical in nature
  • Stable – Personality characteristics, skill deficits, and learned behaviours that relate to risk for recidivism that may be changed through intervention
  • Acute – Risk factors of short or unstable temporal duration that can change rapidly, generally as a result of environmental or intra-personal conditions
risk assessment1
Risk Assessment
  • It is practically and scientifically impossible to predict any future event with 100% certainty. Consequently, a risk assessment will always involve some degree of uncertainty about the “truth” of the actual prediction.
  • The task of risk assessment is to strike a scientific and ethical balance in the identification and management of potential offenders, while optimizing public safety.
three generations of risk assessment bonta 1996
Three Generations of Risk AssessmentBonta (1996)

First Generation = “Clinical Judgment”

  • Unstructured, Non-replicable, Personal Discretion
  • Based on experience and level of knowledge of the literature
  • Non-standard (even within same institution)
  • Level of prediction little better than chance

Second Generation = “Actuarial Assessment”

  • Static, Actuarial, Structured, Replicable, Less open to interpretation
  • Based on factors empirically related to recidivism
  • Standardized assessment, “Static” – Cannot measure change
  • “Moderate” levels of prediction

Third Generation = “Dynamic Assessment”

  • Based on factors empirically related to recidivism
  • Standardized assessment, measures changeable
  • Actuarial measure with dynamic factors
principles of risk management
Principles of Risk Management
  • Analysis
  • Communication
  • Collaboration
  • Monitoring
  • Intervention
  • Re-Analysis
contact information
Contact Information

Robin J. Wilson, PhD, ABPP

Wilson & Associates

Clinical and Forensic Psychology

941 806 9788

dr.wilsonrj@verizon.net