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Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet

Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet. Interdisciplinary effort. CEEH is a collaboration between seven Danish institutions working within the subject areas of Meteorology and air pollution (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU) Toxicology (AU, DMU)

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Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet

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  1. Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet

  2. Interdisciplinary effort • CEEH is a collaboration between seven Danish institutions working within the subject areas of • Meteorology and air pollution (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU) • Toxicology (AU, DMU) • Epidemiology (NIPH/SDU, AU) • Public health economy (CAST/SDU) • Energy and system analysis (RISØ, DMU/AU, DMI) CEEH is financed by the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007.

  3. Output A chain of different models will be used to obtain economically optimize energy systems in Denmark for a number of different “scenarios” and at different time horizons: 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. In CEEH we have particular focus on “externality costs” i.e. indirect environmental and health costs associated with a given setup of the Danish energy system. The final product will – for each scenario – be detailed suggestions for optimal Danish energy systems. Common language: Money and cost minimization

  4. Inputs • Main input: • Scenarios and energy/economic models spanning the 3-dimensional space of • Technological development • Economic growth • Global energy prizes • Additional inputs: • State of the art energy technology catalogue • Population and health data, local demography (including future assumptions) • IPCC scenario for global/hemispheric particle emissions according to scenario A1B. • Global/hemispheric/regional weather evolution in year 2000. • Global “climate cost” of one kilogram of CO2 emission. • IPCC scenario for physical climate changes according to scenario A1B.

  5. CEEH model chain Meteorology / Climate (reference year: 2000) Population and health data Global emission data Air polution modelling transport, chemistry, deposition Emissions global, regional, local Effects on Health exposure and mortality Environmenal effects Optimised local and regional energy systems different sectors Externality cost functions Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy-production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Energy system optimization model(s) Global externalities e.g. CO2 climate cost Regional and local scenarios and models for economic growth and energy prices Technologies in different sectors

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