WBG Post-Crisis Response For Public-Private Infrastructure Projects. Washington DC December 8, 2008. Jyoti Shukla Program Manager Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPIAF. Key Messages.
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WBG Post-Crisis ResponseFor Public-Private Infrastructure Projects
Jyoti ShuklaProgram Manager Public Private Infrastructure Advisory FacilityPPIAF
MSCI equity price indexes
Index (Jan. 2007 = 100)
Asian Pacific ex Japan
Source: MSCI & IFC.
Emerging-market bond spreads
EMBI Jan 2007 – Dec 5, 2008
Emerging-market corporate bond (CEMBI) spreads
Jan 2007 – Dec 1, 2008
…leading to a reversal of private capital flows markets plunge as investors retreat…
Bank lending, bond and equity issuance
Jan. 2004 – Oct. 2008
(12-month moving average)
Source: World Bank.
FDI inflows to developing countries (US billion)
Other Developing Countries
* Based on data in 25 developing countries
Net private debt and equity flows to developing countries
1990-2007, projected 2008-09
Percent of GDP
Source: World Bank.
Countries where foreign banks play a dominant role going forwardwill experience significant impact on credit availability
Number of foreign banks (left axis)
Market share of assets (right axis)
Source: DEC Prospect Group based on data from Bankscope.
Capital market financing for developing countries’ infrastructure
Industry breakdown of developing-country infrastructure bank financing,
* As of October
..accounting for one-third of total international sectorbank financing
Bank lending to energy-sector and total bank lending to emerging markets
Total bank lending
Energy sector borrowing
* As of September
...More important impacts will come from sharp declines expected in " real economy “
Real GDP (% change), 1980-2009
To act as a temporary substitute for non-available commercial financing