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DIMACS Workshop T ü bingen, October 2008. Comparison of network models for STI transmission and intervention: how useful are they for public health?. Mirjam Kretzschmar Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, and Julius Center for Health Sciences & Primary Care
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Tübingen, October 2008
Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, and
Julius Center for Health Sciences & Primary Care
University Medical Centre Utrecht, The Netherlands
Katy Turner, Imperial College London, UK
Pelham Barton, Birmingham University, UK
John Edmunds, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
Nicola Low, University of Bern, Switzerland
Compare three models for the transmission dynamics of chlamydia infection that have been used to assess the effectiveness of different screening strategies.
All three models are built on the same principles and ideas.
- Aging, death
- Formation, dissolution of partnerships
- Transmission of infection
Only core groupSexual partnerships
R0 the basic reproduction number
Duration infectious period
number sex partners
m is mean and v variance in number of partners in last year.
Then for populations stratified by numbers of contacts:
Anderson & May 1991
Effective contact rate is very high for youngest age group in HPA model.
Effective contact rate is higher for females than for males in RIVM and ClaSS models.
Kretzschmar M, Turner KME, Barton PM, Edmunds WJ, Low N. Modeling the population impact of Chlamydia screening programs: comparative study. Submitted.
Turner KM et al. Developing a realistic sexual network model of chlamydia transmission in Britain. Theor.Biol Med Model. 2006;3:3.
Kretzschmar M et al. Comparative model-based analysis of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis infections. Am.J.Epidemiol. 2001;153:90-101.
Low N et al. Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection. Health Technol.Assess. 2007;11:1-184.
Low N, Heijne JCM, Kretzschmar M. Use of mathematical modeling to inform chlamydia screening policy decisions. J Infect Dis; in press.