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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns. Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14 th November 2013. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs. Leading Risk Factors for Health Attributable Mortality, 2004. Source: WHO, 2009. Deaths from NCDs Worldwide, by Income Group.

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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

Franco Sassi PhD

OECD – Health Division

Rome, 14th November 2013



Leading risk factors for health attributable mortality 2004
Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004

Source: WHO, 2009


Deaths from ncds worldwide by income group
Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group

Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008


Obesity a global epidemic
Obesity: a Global Epidemic

  • In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas

  • Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US

  • Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China

% of adult population


The oecd who cdp model
The OECD/WHO CDP Model

Cancers

Stroke

Ischemic heart

disease




Prevention keeps healthy years of life free of ncds
Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs

Cardiovascular diseases

Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast)



Prevention is a good investment impact on health expenditure
Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure


Decrease rrequired in fat consumption
% Decrease Rrequiredin Fat Consumption


Scenario 1 results
Scenario 1 Results



Scenario2 results
Scenario2 Results



Scenario2 results1
Scenario2 Results


Key policy implications
Key Policy Implications

  • Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues

  • Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy

  • Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains

  • Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term


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