Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 January 28, 2010

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 • On Line: 2008 Class • Reading • IPCC Working Group I: Summary for Policy Makers

3. Seminar Opportunity • National Climate Seminar : Bard Center for Environmental Policy • http://www.bard.edu/cep/ncs/ • Bill Schlesinger: Ecology of a Hot Planet • 3PM Eastern: Wednesday, January 27, 2010 • 712-432-3100; conference code, 253385

4. Projects: Step 1

5. Projects • Think of project in the following ways: • You work as a congressional staffer or an agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.

6. Projects • or think of project this way: • You are a small company of 3-5 people, working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy. Does it serve to address climate change?

7. Projects • or maybe this way: • You work for a credit card company which for every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.

8. Projects • or even this way: • You are in the Michigan state government, and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.

9. Projects • The point --- There is a complex problem, and there are a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking.)

10. Think about Projects • Today we will discuss project topics and think about teams …. • Are there groups that have self organized? • What seems especially interesting and relevant (to me)? • The near-term solution space. • What seems especially difficult to me • Carbon market versus carbon tax • Social justice as a driver of the problem versus a part of the problem

11. What can we do now? • Some ideas • Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004 • Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006 • Carbon Mitigation Initiative

12. Class Projects • Think about Projects for a while • The role of the consumer • Energy efficiency / Financing Policy • Science influence on policy, Measurements of carbon, influence • Role of automobile, transportation, life style • Water, fresh water, impact on carbon, • Geo-engineering, public education, emergency management, warning, • Water, insurance, Midwest development, Michigan, regional • Dawkins, socio-biology • What leads to a decision • What does it really mean in the village • Geo-engineering, urban sustainability • US Policy, society interest, K-12, education

13. Class Projects • Think about Projects for a while some previous ideas • Impact of local climate change efforts • Important sources of scientific uncertainty and how they impact policy • Urban planning • Geo-engineering • Natural sinks in carbon market • Ecotourism • Ecosystem services and valuation • Evaluation of Kyoto Impact • Public opinion, comparative study, impact on what we do

14. Today • Foundation of science of climate change (continued)

15. Some Basic References • Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course • Rood Blog Data Base • Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming • IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers • Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

16. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation • Which means lets build up • The observational foundation • The theory foundation • The validation foundation

17. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?

18. What do we see from the past 1000 years • On time scales of, say, decades the CO2 and T are not highly correlated. • Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. • Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. • Regional changes, extremes? • Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. • And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

19. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation • Which means lets build up • The observational foundation • The theory foundation • The validation foundation

20. Conservation Principle

21. Conservation (continuity) principle • There are certain parameters, for example, energy, momentum, mass (air, water, ozone, number of atoms, … ) that are conserved. • “classical” physics, we’re not talking about general or special relativity! • Simple stuff, like billiard balls hitting each other, ice melting • Conserved? That means that in an isolated system that the parameter remains constant; it’s not created; it’s not destroyed. • Isolated system? A collection of things, described by the parameter, that might interact with each other, but does not interact with other things. Nothing comes into or goes out of the system … or, perhaps, nothing crosses the boundary that surrounds the system.

22. Conservation (continuity) principle • There are many other things in the world that we can think of as conserved. For example, money. • We have the money that we have. • If we don’t spend money or make money then the money we have today is the same as the money we had yesterday. Mtoday = Myesterday That’s not very interesting.

23. Conservation (continuity) principle Mtoday = Myesterday Living in splendid isolation

24. Conservation (continuity) principle Income Mtoday = Myesterday + I - E Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Expense

25. Conservation (continuity) principle Income Mtoday = Myesterday + N(I – E) And let’s get a car Expense per month = E Get a job Income per month = I N = number of months I = NxI and E= NxE Expense

26. Some algebra and some thinking Mtoday = Myesterday + N(I – E) Rewrite the equation to represent the difference in money (Mtoday - Myesterday ) = N(I – E) This difference will get more positive or more negative as time goes on. Saving money or going into debt. Divide both sides by N, to get some notion of how difference changes with time. (Mtoday - Myesterday )/N = I – E

27. Some algebra and some thinking (Mtoday - Myesterday )/N = I – E If difference does NOT change with time, then I = E Income equals Expense With a balanced budget, how much we spend, E, is related to how much we have: E = eM (Mtoday - Myesterday )/N = I – eM

28. Some algebra and some thinking (Mtoday - Myesterday )/N = I – eM If difference does NOT change with time, then M = I/e Amount of money stabilizes Can change what you have by either changing income or spending rate All of these ideas lead to the concept of a budget: What you have = what you had plus what you earned minus what you spent

29. Conservation Principle seems intuitive for money • The conservation principle is posited to apply to energy, mass (air, water, ozone, ... ), momentum. • Much of Earth science, science in general, is calculating budgets based on the conservation principle • What is the balance or imbalance • If balanced, then we conclude we have factual information on a quantity. • If unbalanced, then there are deficiencies in our knowledge. Tangible uncertainties.

30. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Income Mtoday = Myesterday + I - E Earth at a certain temperature, T Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Expense

31. Some jargon, language • Income is “production” is “source” • Expense is “loss” is “sink” • Exchange, transfer, transport all suggest that our “stuff” is moving around.

32. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • Assume that Energy is proportional to temperature, T, if the average temperature of the Earth is stable, it does not vary with time.

33. And the conservation of CO2 • Assume that total CO2 is balanced. It sloshes between reservoirs and gets transported around.

34. Let’s think of this as a cycle SOURCES EXCHANGE CHANGE SINKS

35. Equilibrium and balance • We often say that a system is in equilibrium if when we look at everything production = loss. There might be “exchanges” or “transfers” or “transport,” but that is like changing money between a savings and a checking account. • We are used to the climate, the economy, our cash flow being in some sort of “balance.” As such, when we look for how things might change, we look at what might change the balance.

36. Need to think about our “system” • What about carbon dioxide?

37. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Important things in this figure.

38. System? • When we look at the Earth and talk about climate change what is our system?

39. System? • When we look at the Earth and talk about climate change what is our system? Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T)

40. System? • But our focus is at the surface of the Earth. We change “stuff” in the system as a whole, and then we want to know how the balance of energy at the Earth’s surface will change. Energy from the Sun In both of these cases our definition of system implicitly looks at the intersection of climate and people. Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T)

41. One of my rules • In the good practice of science, of problem solving, to first draw a picture.

42. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy. Earth at a certain temperature, T Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T)

43. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect(Is this controversial?) SUN Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. Earth This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

44. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect(Is this controversial?) SUN Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. We are making the atmosphere “thicker.” Earth This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

45. Some aspects of the greenhouse effect • Greenhouse warming is part of the Earth’s natural climate system. • It’s like a blanket – it holds heat near the surface for a while before it returns to space. • Water is the dominant greenhouse gas. • Carbon dioxide is a natural greenhouse gas. • We are adding at the margin – adding some blankets • Or perhaps closing the window that is cracked open. • N20, CH4, CFCs, ... also important. But in much smaller quantities. • Molecule per molecule stronger than CO2 • We have been calculating greenhouse warming for a couple of centuries now.

46. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • If we change a greenhouse gas e.g. CO2, we change the loss rate. For some amount of time we see that the Earth is NOT in balance, that is ΔT/Δt is not zero, temperature changes.

47. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy. Earth at a certain temperature, T Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T)

48. Changing a greenhouse gas changes this The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • We reach a new equilibrium

49. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system(What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). What else could be happening in this system? Earth This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

50. Conservation of Energy • The heating could change. That is the sun, the distance from the sun, ... .