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ELEC 694

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  1. ELEC 694 PDA’s and Alternative Computers Craig Dos Santos Niels Hoven Scott Cutler cutler@rice.edu 9/11/02

  2. Today’s Agenda • Course logistics. • Class size • Description of projects • Schedules • Today’s Topic: PDA’s and Alternative Computers ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  3. ELEC 694 Enrolment • Registrar lists 24 people • Contacted by 25 people • Last week 26 people • Need to ensure participation level appropriate for a seminar series. • 10 traditional seminar slots handling 20 people ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  4. Schedule for Fall 2002 (Preliminary) • 08/28/02 Introduction and Waves of Computing (Cutler) • 09/04/02 Historical Perspective On PC Technology (Cutler) • 09/11/02 PDAs and Digital Appliances (Dos Santos / Hoven) • 09/18/02 Broadband and Last Mile (Kuzmanovic / Gambiroza) • 09/25/02 Cell Phones & 3G (Slockers / Haag) • 10/02/02 64-bit processors, AthalonXP vs. P4 (Murphy / Mowry) • 10/09/02 Video / Audio Standards (Noel / Murillo) • 10/16/02No Class - Rice midterm recess Wednesday adjustment • 10/23/02 Streaming Clients and Infrastructure (Mercado / Khoa) • 10/30/02 .Net / XML / UDDI / SOAP (Lu / Liu) • 11/06/02 Peripheral Interconnects (Bishop / Black) • 11/13/02 Wireless LAN / WAN / PAN (Morcos / Rodriguez-Diaz) • 11/20/02 Game Boxes (Koch / Doughty) • 11/27/02 Final Projects – Group I • 12/04/02 Final Projects – Group II • 11/20/02 Final Papers due • 11/24/02 Off-site AOL/Time Warner, Interesting Products, Infinity • Note that a few of the student presentations have yet to be scheduled. We will discuss this at the next class ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  5. Technologies Memory Processors Video / Audio Standards MP3, MP4, WMA Wireless WAN/LAN/PAN Storage SOAP, XML, UDDI .NET / Internet Applications Peripheral interconnects Printing and Displays Broadband / Last mile 64 bit processors Products PDAs Cell Phones Game Boxes DVR / TiVo DAR / MP3 players Home Routers / Gateways Digital Cameras Speakers / Sound Cards Video Cards Smartcards / Security Automotive / OnStar GPS / Avionics Suggested Topics ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  6. Student Lead Seminars • 30 to 45 minutes worth of material that stretches to 45 minutes to 1 hour with discussion. • Will have to cover two topics on a few days due to class size. On other days, we can discuss some new product trends. ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  7. Seminar Content • Less than 1/3rd of time on history • Less than 1/3rd of time on current situation • Close to 50% of time on future • Where likely to go • Application enabled • Implication of rapid improvements • Co dependencies and bottlenecks • Most often request from last year was to make seminars more rigorous ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  8. Seminar Preparation • Schedule 3 meetings with students prior to their discussion • Students should start preparation 3 weeks prior to their scheduled seminar • First meeting 2 weeks prior to seminar to discuss general outline as well as suggested readings • Second meeting 1 week prior to seminar to review first draft of actual seminar. • Third meeting 1 or 2 days before seminar to make any last minute changes • Slides e-mailed to me no later than 5:00pm on the Tuesday before Wednesday seminar. • Meetings can be held Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, however they are individually scheduled to minimize extra trips. If necessary, the final review can be over the phone. • For those students giving a seminar near the end, we can start this process a few weeks earlier so as not to bunch all the work at one time. ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  9. Project Paper • We are creating a topic library of relevant technologies. • Students are to prepare white papers of minimum of 20 pages in length covering a selected topic. • Document should be suitable for referencing. • Can be in Word format or an HTML document • Topic can be the same as seminar topic • More than 50% of paper needs to relate to the futures of the technology including: • Where likely to go • Application enabled • Implication of rapid improvements • Co dependencies and bottlenecks • Can be started at any time and are due 11/20/02 ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  10. Final Two Seminars • Series of short seminars covering a group of students vision of the future based on covered topics or related topics • Can not be the same topic covered earlier • 100% future based • Should relate convergence of multiple technologies and present a holistic, systems viewpoint. • Extreme positions encouraged • Groups will be of 8 groups of students (approx 3 students per group) and we will cover 4 per class • Talks should be approximately 15 minutes in length with 5 minutes of discussion ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  11. Discussion

  12. Seminar #4 • Broadband and the Last Mile • Presented by • Aleksandar Kuzmanovic • Violeta Gambiroza • Logistics • Wednesday, September 18, 2002 • 10:00 – 11:30 • AL 126 • Read 1. WSJ Article [read] • http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~courtade/elec694/wsj.html 2. Newsweek Article [skim] • http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~courtade/elec694/newsweek.html 3. Wired -Broadband Cowboy [skim] • http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.01/hendricks.html 4. PC Magazine - Dvorak - The Myth of Broadband [read] • http://www.pcmag.com/article/0,2997,s%253D1500%2526a%253D2162,00.asp 5. Got Broadband? You're under attack [read 1st page, skim rest] • http://www.extremetech.com/article/0,2299,s%253D1024%2526a%253D1620,00.asp 6. BusinessWeek - Broadband's Next Wave: Wireless? • http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2001/nf20010517_453.htm 7. Monetizing the Last Mile • http://www.business2.com/articles/web/0,1653,43490,FF.html • Prep for Seminar #5 • Cell Phones and 3G (9/25) • Michael Haag • Shawn Slockers • Prep for Seminar #6 • 64 bit processors & AthalonXP vs. P4 (10/2) • Patrick Murphy • Anthony Mowry ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  13. ELEC 694 Computing on the go: The Future of Personal Digital Assistants (PDA). Niels Hoven nhoven@rice.edu Craig Dos Santos craigmd@rice.edu 9/11/02

  14. History of PDA’s • In the beginning… the Psion 1.8k memory16 character alpha-numeric display • Apple NewtonRoughly 4x8x1’’ (not pocket size)PCMCIA slot and serial port ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  15. Palm Inc. • Palm introduces the Pilot 1000 in ’96128K RAM (5000 had 512K), 16Mhz CPU • Palm III is first of Modern Era in ’98 • backlit screen, beaming capibility, Flashable ROM • Handspring licences Palm OS in ’98 • Palm in 1999… expanding… • Around 70% of Market worldwide in handhelds • Nokia licenses Palm technology ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  16. Pocket PC • Debuts April 19th, 2000 on the HP Jornada 54x series • iPaq debuts summer, 2000. Units sell for as much as $1000 on Ebay • HP continues to increase production throughout the first year up to 400,000 units a month. • Microsoft ships 1 million units in the first year ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  17. PCMag’s Perfect PDA • From Dec. 2001 • Uses currenttechnologies • Answered bynew Toshiba • Exc. LCD, keyboard, ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  18. Current PDA’s • Toshiba e740 • $500 • Built in 802.11b • 64 MB RAM • 32 MB Flash ROM • 6.7 ounces • SDIO and CF slots ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  19. Current PDA’s • Compaq IPaq • $650 - $750 • Built in Bluetooth (cell phone enabled) • 64 MB RAM • 48 MB Flash ROM • 400 Mhz • SD slot ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  20. Newest Palm • $300 • 16 MB RAM • Expansion Slot • Color screen • 4.9 Ounces • (similar model available for same price, with no color,but with wireless plan) ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  21. iPod • $500 • 10 GB 4200 rpm drive • 32 MB DRAM • 32 MB ROM • 133 MHz • Monochrome display ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  22. Springboard Modules • Raycom Personal Massager • JetLog 24x7 PowerNapping Module • Magellan GPS Companion ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  23. Market Share of handhelds ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  24. Palm versus Pocket PC • In the last few years, Pocket PC’s have taken some of Palms market share. • Pocket PC’s are more expensive but offer greater flexibility. • Underlying question: • Has Microsoft overshot the needs of the average consumer? ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  25. The battle of simple vs. robust • Palm remains simple in its design • Pocket PC believes this is a small computer • Who is right? Will the masses pay extra for the functionality of a handheld computer? • What are the implications of being connected all the time? • Can one company fill both the market for the full functioned and the simplistic? ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  26. Network Externalities… • Added benefit from widespread use • Autarky value = value generated by product • Synchronization value = additional value from network • Indirect vs. Direct networks • Unauthorized software copying • Firms producing similar but incompatible products leads to a natural monopoly • Heterogeneous tastes in consumers can lead to competing networks coexisting ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  27. … and the effect on the PDA market • Did Palm already have its shot? • When will PDA’s be incorporated by the mass public? (ie as well as cell phones are now) • Will there be a killer app to help reach this point? • What are the network externalities of this market? • Can multiple firms exist? ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  28. Cost of Wireless Connectivity • Palm VII: $300 • $20/mo + $0.20/Kb over 100Kb, or $40 unlimited  • Handspring Treo: $350-$500 • 4000 min, 2MB - $50/mo • 4000 min, 20MB - $80/mo • Approx $1.70/MB w/phone plan • Pocket PC Phone Edition: $550 • Approx $4/MB w/phone plan ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  29. Secure wallet • Secure purchases • Functionality in retail stores • Driver’s license • Passport • Credit cards • Insurance information • Business cards • Backed up on your home computer ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  30. Gaming • Gameboys of the future • Portable, networked gaming • Current PDAs 400MHz • Xbox 700MHz • Need cheaper modules • Better gaming input interface • Appropriate storage media ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  31. Voice and video • Memo recorder • Voice to text notes • 300 MHz Pentium recommended • 600 MHz to use effectively • Real time translations • Video conferencing • Subtitles on your video conference ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  32. XScale vs.Celeron vs. today • Xscale • 2nd generation StrongARM • Intel and Advanced RISC Machines • 500 mW at 400 MHz • 7 stage pipeline • Celeron • 400 MHz • 24 W • Current specs • Athlon XP 2600+: 68 W • Pentium 3: 10 stage pipeline • Pentium 4: 20 stage pipeline ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  33. Intel Propaganda “What happens if a branch prediction is wrong? Absolutely nothing.Remember, most microprocessor chips don’t have any branch prediction atall, so even an incorrect prediction is no worse than what most other microprocessorsdo all the time. The Intel PXA250 applications processor does itsbest to prevent this from happening.” ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  34. The future of the laptop • PDAs only two years behind laptop • 400 MHz, 64MB RAM, 10GB hard drive • $700 price tag • PDA • Processor • RAM • Nominal storage • Docking station • Hard drive • Monitor interface ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  35. Necessary Improvements • Improved input devices • Handwriting recognition • Portable keyboards • Battery capacity • Fuel cells • Zinc-air disposable packs • Price point • ~ $150 for widespread ownership • ~ $700 for laptop replacements ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  36. PDA pricing • LCD screen • 32 MD SDRAM • Processor • Hard drive or other storage medium ELEC 694, Seminar #3

  37. Discussion