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Essentials of Meteorology: Becoming an Excellent Weather Forecaster

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  1. Meteo 415 The Lecture Component

  2. Today’s Objectives • What makes an excellent forecaster?

  3. Excellent Forecasters, 2008 • Outstanding data interpreter • Decoder vs. interpreter • Stellar tool box • Optimizes efficiency • Defines problem • Looks at Observations!

  4. Decoder vs. Interpreter What are the differences between the two?

  5. Defining the problem http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx • Where? • Point or region? • When? • Short or long term? • What? • Temp (hi, low?) • Wind (instantaneous, peak gust?) • Humidity • Precip (amount, type, timing?) • Cloud (amount, type, timing?)

  6. Looks at Observations! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx Critical clues! • Excellent forecasters find clues • Examples: • Thunderstorm outflows • Lake-effect snow • Daytime high temperatures

  7. “Weather” can be explained by:“w” http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx • Shortwaves • Ascent (pva) • Descent (nva) • Fronts • Cyclones (lows), anticyclones (highs) • Buoyancy

  8. Dynamic Ascent: Shortwaves Aloft: 500mb Relationship to Surface

  9. Mechanical Ascent: Frontal lift

  10. Buoyant Ascent: Convection Lifted Index Assesses Instability- how?

  11. Relating upper levels to surface: Real case 500mb heights/vorticity 1000-500 thick/SLP How do I rate shortwave intensity ? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx

  12. Relating shortwaves to precipitation patterns 500mb heights “Observed” precip

  13. Relating surface fronts to precipitation patterns Observed precip 1000-500 thick/SLP What’s causing Gulf precip?

  14. Relating 500mb to Cloud Patterns 500mb heights Satellite picture What kind of satellite picture is this?

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