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Modeling Attrition in Aggregated-Force Combat Models

Modeling Attrition in Aggregated-Force Combat Models. Panel Discussion. Fifth International Military Applications Symposium (5MAS) Memphis, TN June 5, 2002. Attrition in Aggregated-Force Models. Theoretical Bases Implementation Scenario Software Documentation Model Behavior

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Modeling Attrition in Aggregated-Force Combat Models

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  1. Modeling Attrition in Aggregated-Force Combat Models Panel Discussion Fifth International Military Applications Symposium (5MAS) Memphis, TN June 5, 2002

  2. Attritionin Aggregated-Force Models • Theoretical Bases • Implementation • Scenario • Software • Documentation • Model Behavior • Use to Support DM & Training

  3. ASSESSMENTof State-of-Art • Theoretical Basis (RED) • Implementation (GREEN) • Documentation (YELLOW) • Model Behavior (ORANGE) • Use to Support DM & Training (YELLOW)

  4. Major Problem Areas • Theoretical Basis Lacking • Millennium Attrition Symposium • Focus on Computer Science and Not Military Science • No Investment in Mathematical Modeling • Organizational Perverse Incentives • Inconsistencies with Entity-Level Simulations

  5. Basic Types of Simulations • Entity-Level Simulation • Individual Entities Tracked • Micro-Combat Processes • Discrete-Event Simulation • Aggregated-Force Simulation • Aggregation of Forces (Individual Entities Not Tracked) • Macro-Combat Processes • Various Analytical Models Integrated Together • Can Be Hybrid (Monte-Carlo Simulation and Analytical Model)

  6. Lognormal Interfiring Times (Direct Fire) Both Serial and Parallel Acquisition Various Rules of Engagement Exponential Interfiring Times (Direct Fire) Only Serial Acquisition Only One Target-Engagement Policy Some Basic Inconsistencies Entity-Level Simulation Aggregated-Force Model

  7. Weakest Link in Model • Assumption of Exponential Distribution for Time to Kill an Acquired Target • Consequence Is That Attrition Runs “Too Hot” • Can Compute Attrition-Rate Coefficient Under Assumption of Lognormal Distribution for Interfiring Times • Actual Form of AMSAA Data • Can Still Obtain Explicit Analytical Results

  8. Mathematical Modeling • Significantly More Difficult for Aggregated-Force Models than for Entity-Level Simulations • Attrition Interactions • Force-on-Force Loss Rates • Lanchester Attrition-Rate Coefficient

  9. Mathematical Modeling-2 • “Old” Problems • Target Acquisition • Serial versus Parallel • Rules of Engagement • Engaging Acquired Target • Interfiring Times • New Problems • MOUT • Future Combat Systems • Asymmetric Warfare

  10. Conclusions • Consensus Needed to Guide Developments • Different Perspectives from Different Panel Members

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