City Issues and Data Workshop CanberraUsing Forecasting forPolicy Development Mishka Foster Economic Development Branch Brisbane City Council
Brisbane’s Policy Challenge – identifying the dimensions of growth Council land use & infrastructure planning - historically informed by population growth projections First commissioning of employment & economic activity forecasts in 2004 Inspired significant policy shift
How the NIEIR model works CURRENT FUTURE ECONOMIC DRIVERS 2006 (inputs to the model) 2026 (key model outputs) 2026 Population & demographics Employment by place of residence GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Land supply andzoning Employment by place of work Current businessesandjobs Industries (ABS Statistical Local Area)
Key Findings • Employment growth 2X population growth • 50% increase in employment a significant challenge for transport accessibility • Residential/economic land use conflict • Need for CBD re-conceptualisation • SEQ Regional Plan not addressing employment/economic needs
Employment growth – double population growth
Brisbane population growth is on a declining trend Actual and Forecast Population Growth, Rest of SEQ and Brisbane, 1996-2026
SEQ Regional Plan identified ‘Activity’ Centres, based on population growth and retailing
Brisbane City Council Forecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activity ATC BOTH SEQRP NIEIR Chermside Expanded CBD Toowong Indooroopilly St Lucia Capalaba Carindale Cleveland Acacia Ridge Upper Mt Gravatt Rochedale Richlands Wacol Springfield Springwood
Inner Brisbane & Australia TradeCoast are key export growth areas CBD and Inner City Australia TradeCoast Australia TradeCoast Future Industry
Employment growth centres have different characteristics…. Matrix of Top 3 Industries in High Growth Employment Centres
Inner Brisbane is growing rapidly Hamilton Newmarket Ashgrove Herston Bulimba Kelvin Grove Paddington Bardon Hawthorne CBD Employment 2006 = 140,205 2026 = 215,009 Toowong Norman Park West End East Brisbane Greater CBD Employment 2006 = 220,936 2026 = 365,319 Coorparoo Greenslopes Indooroopilly Fairfield
APPLYING THE FORECASTS 1. Identify High Employment Growth SLAs 2. Identify High Employment Growth CCDs within SLAs 3. Aggregate CCDs into minimum of 4 per cluster based on ground truthing 4. Split out Industrial/Commercial Employment Segments 5. Apportion SLA Industrial Structure to Aggregated Cluster 5. Apportion SLA Commercial Structure to Aggregated Cluster 6. Apply GFA Ratios to Employment Structure 7. Identify top 3 job sectors within each cluster
TOP DOWN/BOTTOM UP APPROACH NIEIR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CLUSTERS Lot Level Information (rates data, city plan)
Applying The Forecasts Regional land use planning CityPlan SEQ Regional Plan Review Local area planning Neighbourhood Plans, Urban Renewal, ULDA Transport Planning Major Infrastructure Assessment
Transport infrastructure activates economic drivers Skilled labour pool relevant to business needs Land availability and cost Transport access for workers and businesses Congestion is the most important infrastructure issue impacting on SEQ’s future economic success.
Travel times are a key driver Travel times determine the accessibility of population to jobs, schools, shops, etc. and employers to workers. Model assumptions based on behaviour patterns in other comparable cities: 45 minute catchment for labour availability 15 minute catchment for retail expenditure at shopping centres
A 5 min increase in travel times creates a labour accessibility constraint on business growth and results in an overall loss of 135,000 jobs in SEQ by 2026 • Differential impact across SEQ – Beaudesert and LGAs around Brisbane worst affected. • Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Western Councils least affected.
Addressing the economic imperatives The forecasts demonstrate the potential to increase the economic performance of SEQ as a whole region. Future success driven by productivity and competitiveness, not population. Inter-connectedness of local regional economies increases economic efficiency and productivity
Priority issues Securing land for business growth in the forecast growth locations will deliver strongest economic outcomes for the whole community Effective transport infrastructure connecting employment locations will maximise efficiency, productivity and employment Financial mechanisms needed to bring forward investment.