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Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters

Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters. Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011 Jared Klein LWX Climate Program Leader. NOAA/CPC 2011-12 Winter Outlook (Updated outlook- mid November). Temperatures. Precipitation.

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Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters

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  1. Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011 Jared Klein LWX Climate Program Leader

  2. NOAA/CPC 2011-12 Winter Outlook(Updated outlook- mid November) Temperatures Precipitation The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, ENSO.

  3. Current State of ENSO Niño 3.4 Niño 4 Niño 3 Niño 1+2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  4. Current State of ENSO (cont.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  5. ENSO Forecast The majority of ENSO models predict the continuation of a weak to moderate La Niña at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter. International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society

  6. El Niño pattern that dominated the 2009-10 winter La Niña pattern that dominated last winter and so far this fall http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml

  7. El Niño pattern that dominated the 2009-10 winter La Niña pattern that dominated last winter and so far this fall http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml

  8. La Niña Winters and Temperature

  9. 1981-2010 NormalDJF Temp- 38.2°F La Niña Time Series La Niña Averages

  10. La Niña Winters and Precipitation

  11. 1981-2010 Normal DJF Precip- 8.48" La Niña Time Series 1981-2010 Normal DJF Precipitation (8.48”) La Niña Averages

  12. La Niña Winters and Snowfall

  13. 1981-2010 Normal Seasonal Snowfall - 15.5" 1981-2010 Seasonal Snowfall (15.5”) La Niña Time Series La Niña Averages

  14. Years with Above Normal Snowfall at DCA (>15.5”) since 1950 1- 56.1” (09-10) 2- 46.0” (95-96) 3- 40.4” (57-58) 3- 40.4” (02-03) 5- 40.3” (60-61) 6- 37.7” (78-79) 7- 37.1” (66-67) 8- 33.6” (63-64) 9- 31.1” (86-67) 10- 28.4 ” (65-66) 11- 27.6” (82-83) 12- 25.0” (87-88) 13- 24.3” (59-60) 14- 22.7 ” (77-78) 15- 22.5” (81-82) 16- 21.4” (62-63) 16- 21.4” (67-68) 18- 20.1 ” (79-80) 19- 18.0” (53-54) 20- 17.1 ” (64-65) 21- 16.8” (71-72) 22- 16.7” (73-74) +3 SD +2 SD +1 SD

  15. -NAO 500 mb height anomalies from the 30 snowiest months at Washington DC Assessment on the 2009-10 Winter NOAA Attribution Team (Hoerling et al. 2010)

  16. Questions/Comments? Jared.Klein@noaa.gov

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