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Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Gerald Rys Sustainable Resource Use Policy

Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Gerald Rys Sustainable Resource Use Policy Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Agriculture in New Zealand. Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture)

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Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Gerald Rys Sustainable Resource Use Policy

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  1. Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Gerald Rys Sustainable Resource Use Policy Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

  2. Agriculture in New Zealand • Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture) • 44% of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral agriculture • Highly export-dependent country (64% of total NZ exports) • Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid

  3. Adaptation – Overview of Options • Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change: • Extension of growing season • Wider range of products / market timing • Managing gradual change: • Adaptive breeding of cultivars • On-going disease / biosecurity management • Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies • Managing extreme events: • Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting • Floods: land-use planning; warning systems

  4. Top-down assessments: • Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs • Development of national impact assesment tools (CLIMPACTS) • Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation - Preliminary economic assessments • Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research • Regulatory approaches – local government planning and strategies Bottom-up assessments: • Specific topic and regional studies • Cost of specific events – floods and droughts • Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers Assessment Tools

  5. GCM Downscaling Impacts on NZ Agriculture New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than global average due to oceanic influence Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier conditions in east, wetter in west Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most places) and drought risk (eastern regions) Biological effects of extension of growing season, change in species composition / disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation Reductions in cold hardening in some crops

  6. CLIMPACTS - Impacts Assessment Tool

  7. Impacts assessment – example kiwifruit 1990 2100

  8. Climate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment Drought is an important cause of variation in NZ’s GDP. Economic studies show impacts. Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in drought risk, severity and return frequency Adapting now has important co-benefits for future climate Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of Action on Water: quality, quanity

  9. Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)Research

  10. Assessment now of impacts of future elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological systems • IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems • Provides insights into national and global adaptation strategies FACE Research

  11. Regional Climate AssessmentsFarmers using information to manage for current climate variability Examples: • GrowOTAGO climate / soil mapping project • Kaipara / Far North climate / soil / crop project • Southern Climate & Pasture Outlook

  12. Enabling Individual Farmers • Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have received little attention from farmers • Need to engage farmers at local scale with a “view from the ground” perspective • Series of farmer interviews and workshops focusing on “sustainability” and positive options for managing risks covering: • Diversification • Water issues • Good information at right level / timing

  13. Adaptation – Regulatory Responses • Are part of Sustainable Development strategies • Regulatory framework for adaptation: • Regional Councils develop regional policies and manage natural resources/hazards • Resource Management Act requires “particular regard to the effects of climate change” • Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has been developed for local government • Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable Development strategies and community-based long-term plans

  14. Conclusions Adaptation is very important for agricultural based economies whether developed or developing Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively known or poorly understood Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity. water management, biodiversity) Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but needs to be integrated into business decisions Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries

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