1 / 12

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election 台灣 2012 年 總統選舉

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election 台灣 2012 年 總統選舉. US Academic Survey Press Conference 美國學術調查記者會 Dec. 2, 2011, Taipei. 主辦單位：美國俄克拉荷馬大學美中關係研究所. Who?. Peter Gries, Newman Chair and Director; visiting scholar at National Taiwan University Nonpartisan US Academic Institute

norman-benton
Download Presentation

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election 台灣 2012 年 總統選舉

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election台灣2012年總統選舉 US Academic Survey Press Conference 美國學術調查記者會 Dec. 2, 2011, Taipei 主辦單位：美國俄克拉荷馬大學美中關係研究所

  2. Who? • Peter Gries, Newman Chair and Director; visiting scholar at National Taiwan University • Nonpartisan US Academic Institute • Election data will be publically available online at Harvard University’s Dataverse website

  3. How and When? YouGov (US co.) National Taiwan Survey, Nov. 17-28, 2011 • First use of “sample matching” Internet survey methodology in Taiwan (age, gender, region & ed). • Minimizes response biases common to telephone and face-to-face interviews.

  4. Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters • Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error • But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted 馬 未決定 宋 蔡

  5. Gender and warmthtowards the candidates • Women like Ma more than men do • Men like Soong more than women  (both small effects) • No gender differences on Tsai • [Ma supporters slightly better educated. Mixed evidence on income.]

  6. 如果宋楚瑜退出，您會支持誰？ In a race without Soong, Soong voters migrate more towards Ma 未決定 47% 馬 26% 36% 34% 10% 30% 蔡 17%

  7. Ethnicity and Warmthtowards the candidates • 閩南人are ambivalent/split on Ma and Cai • 外省人 arehighly polarized • 客家人feel warmer towards Ma

  8. Who are the undecided voters? • Quite a bit younger (mean age of 38 vs. 45) than decided voters • Substantially more women than men are undecided • Slightly less wealthy • But very slightly more educated 未決定 30%

  9. Identity Profiles of different voting groups • All voters identify much more as台灣人 than as 中國人 • But the identity gap is much greater for Tsai voters than for Ma voters • Soong voters identify the least as 台灣人

  10. Tsai supporters desire the toughest China policies

  11. Straits policy is in the eyes of the beholder • Ma supporters see themselves as closest to Ma, and view Tsai as extreme 獨立 • Tsai supporters see themselves as closer to Tsai, and Ma as extreme 統一 • All but Ma supporters view Soong as holding a middle position, but Soong supporters see themselves as more similar to Tsai.

  12. Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters • Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error • But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted 馬 未決定 宋 蔡

More Related