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Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election 台灣 2012 年 總統選舉 PowerPoint Presentation
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Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election 台灣 2012 年 總統選舉. US Academic Survey Press Conference 美國學術調查記者會 Dec. 2, 2011, Taipei. 主辦單位:美國俄克拉荷馬大學美中關係研究所. Who?. Peter Gries, Newman Chair and Director; visiting scholar at National Taiwan University Nonpartisan US Academic Institute

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taiwan s 2012 presidential election 2012

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election台灣2012年總統選舉

US Academic Survey Press Conference

美國學術調查記者會

Dec. 2, 2011, Taipei

主辦單位:美國俄克拉荷馬大學美中關係研究所

slide2
Who?
  • Peter Gries, Newman Chair and Director; visiting scholar at National Taiwan University
  • Nonpartisan US Academic Institute
  • Election data will be publically available online at Harvard University’s Dataverse website
how and when yougov us co national taiwan survey nov 17 28 2011
How and When? YouGov (US co.) National Taiwan Survey, Nov. 17-28, 2011
  • First use of “sample matching” Internet survey methodology in Taiwan (age, gender, region & ed).
  • Minimizes response biases common to telephone and face-to-face interviews.
ma leads tsai and soong 34 to 26 to 10 among all voters
Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters
  • Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error
  • But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted

未決定

gender and warmth towards the candidates
Gender and warmthtowards the candidates
  • Women like Ma more than men do
  • Men like Soong more than women

 (both small effects)

  • No gender differences on Tsai
  • [Ma supporters slightly better educated. Mixed evidence on income.]
in a race without soong
如果宋楚瑜退出,您會支持誰? In a race without Soong,

Soong voters migrate more towards Ma

未決定

47%

26%

36%

34%

10%

30%

17%

ethnicity and warmth towards the candidates
Ethnicity and Warmthtowards the candidates
  • 閩南人are ambivalent/split on Ma and Cai
  • 外省人 arehighly polarized
  • 客家人feel warmer towards Ma
who are the undecided voters
Who are the undecided voters?
  • Quite a bit younger (mean age of 38 vs. 45) than decided voters
  • Substantially more women than men are undecided
  • Slightly less wealthy
  • But very slightly more educated

未決定

30%

identity profiles of different voting groups
Identity Profiles of different voting groups
  • All voters identify much more as台灣人 than as 中國人
  • But the identity gap is much greater for Tsai voters than for Ma voters
  • Soong voters identify the least as 台灣人
straits policy is in the eyes of the beholder
Straits policy is in the eyes of the beholder
  • Ma supporters see themselves as closest to Ma, and view Tsai as extreme 獨立
  • Tsai supporters see themselves as closer to Tsai, and Ma as extreme 統一
  • All but Ma supporters view Soong as holding a middle position, but Soong supporters see themselves as more similar to Tsai.
ma leads tsai and soong 34 to 26 to 10 among all voters1
Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters
  • Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error
  • But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted

未決定