Addressing Students’ Misconceptions about Probability. Leonid Khazanov. Typical Misconceptions about Probability. Representativeness : subjects estimate the likelihood of an event based on how well an outcome represents some aspect of the parent population
the principal question and justification
a) a 5-game series, b) a 9-game series?
Students often tend to assign lower probability to outcomes that look special.
Saying that the above sequence is very rare may reinforce a misconception.
Number Probability Probability that
of people that all birthdays there are at least two people
in group are different who share the same birthday
2 100% 0%
4 98% 2%
6 96% 4%
8 93% 7%
… … …
74 0% 100%