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Dealing with Large Scale Power Emergencies

Dealing with Large Scale Power Emergencies. Applying The Lessons Learnt From Global Case Studies In The South African Context Shamal Sivasanker AMEU Conference 2007. The world as viewed from above. Conservative Estimation of affected customers:

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Dealing with Large Scale Power Emergencies

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  1. Dealing with Large Scale Power Emergencies Applying The Lessons Learnt From Global Case Studies In The South African Context Shamal Sivasanker AMEU Conference 2007

  2. The world as viewed from above Conservative Estimation of affected customers: 500 million people affected since turn of the century Demand growth: 18.5% growth in energy consumption since 2000 Source: EIA

  3. What has been driving this growing trend on a global basis? Demand • Growing industrial and residential demand • China & India economic growth • Pressures on primary energy – fragility of supply lines Natural Phenomenon • Impacts of natural weather e.g. Hurricanes, Tsunamis, effects of changing weather conditions Human induced outages • Skilled labour is a shortage in the Global Industry – leading to constraints in operating Ageing Networks • Ailing infrastructure across the globe • Lack of investment in terms of refurbishment and replacement – particularly in T & D infrastructure Managing these issues develops more complexity

  4. Throughout history, events have driven change . . .

  5. … 2003 was driven by three such events . . .

  6. Eastern US - August 2003 Situation Root Causes • Hot Summer • Equipment out for repairs • System close to limit • Lack of dynamic reserves • Poor forecasting • Lack of awareness • Poor vegetation management • Poor real-time support Recommendations Lessons Learnt • Strengthen compliance through audits • Evaluate vegetation management • Clarify stakeholder role • Improve staff training • Enhance system tools • Non-compliance Fragility of system • Poor operation and communication processes • Lack of stakeholder involvement

  7. London 2003 Situation Root Causes • Reuse of equipment • Installation of wrong equipment • Faults and oil leaks caused maintenance rescheduling • Planned outages • Misinterpretation of alarm • Switching out of SGT3 left power supply to single circuit • Circuit breakers at single circuit tripped Recommendations Lessons Learnt • Human error from relays increasing worldwide • NGC & contractors made errors in scheme delivery • NGC practices not rigidly enforced • Increased stakeholder involvement • Investigation of equipment installation • NGC review ops procedures • Ofgem penalty for incidents

  8. Italy 2003 Situation Root Causes • 15 highly heavily loaded lines on Italy North border • Italy’s 6400MW import increased by 200 – 300 MW • Swiss grid also under pressure • Poor vegetation management • Inability to re-close line • Lack of urgency • Angle instability and voltage collapse Recommendations Lessons Learnt • System was close to limits • Blackout triggered in Switzerland • Human, technical and org factors prevented quick system restoration • Inter-TSO cooperation • UCTE Operation handbook and DACF review • Evaluation of tree trimming • NGC to enforce min reqs. • Investment in transmission

  9. So what where the common issues? Infrastructure and Investment • Re-use of old equipment (resulting in fragile systems) • Neglect of current equipment (resulting in fragile systems) • Poor vegetation management • Lack of real-time reporting equipment Stakeholder Involvement • Non-compliance with guidelines, regulations and standards • Lack of agreed upon standards in some cases • No collaboration between parties in pursuit of common purpose • Poor role definition of stakeholders Human Error • Insufficient training (resulting in mistakes in operating equipment and misinterpretations of situations) • Lack of skilled and experienced operators Weather Affect • Seasonal affect on demand of energy (causing record peaks) • Causes damage and deteriorates equipment Operations and Processes Laid out by Relevant Bodies • Grids were operated at levels close to critical levels in every case • Operational procedures in emergency situations inadequate

  10. So how did the Electricity Industry respond, and what were the lessons learnt? Preparedness Risk Risk Management

  11. Build Agility into the business to respond to an emergency

  12. The SA Context Building Agility in Utilities to ensure effective response Practices Business Continuity Management • Closer integration and collaboration in the industry • Processes that extend across boundaries • Governance that is clearly defined in the case of emergencies • Pre-defined protocols • Building in organisation flexibility and adaptive capacity Streamlined Emergency Management Processes Clearly Defined Governance

  13. Having the ability to Sense and Forewarn

  14. Sensing and Forewarning Mechanisms help Focus & Prepare the Organisation • Dynamic risk management attempts to improve the ability of organisations to predict unknown future risks that could impact on the business, its’ performance and stakeholders using concepts such as sensitivity analysis Source: Deloitte’s Risk Intelligent Enterprise Model

  15. Preparing for Strategic and Operational Response

  16. “We believe that much of the strength and resilience evident in our organization is an outcome of continued investment in our infrastructure and our people,preparedness planning and ongoing efforts to manage risk. We also believe ourpursuit of sustainable developmentover the past five years made us significantly stronger and more resilient.” Source: Entergy Resilience & Renewal, Sustainable Development Report 2005

  17. The SA Context Preparing for Strategic and Operational Response Practices Scenario Planning • Identification of strategic risks • Integrated forums with key stakeholder groups to establish business continuity plans • Integration with National Disaster Recovery • Establishment of a command centre(s) • Running preparedness simulation exercises to create awareness and help check level of readiness. Standardised Emergency Response Plans Preparedness Exercises & Indicators

  18. Strategic Management of Stakeholders

  19. The SA Context Strategic Management of Stakeholders Practices Be Visible • Different stakeholders need different approaches • Deal with the facts • Ongoing interaction with stakeholders on the Electricity issues • Address your stakeholder concerns • Win them over! Don't Hide The Bad News Communicate Frequently Address Perception Vs. Reality Be Empathetic

  20. Emergencies such as these re-define the Political Landscape

  21. Building Organisational Resilience

  22. Result: the company becomes a leading-edge resilient organization prepared for and adaptive to counter any eventuality by incorporating a robust threat detection and prioritization, and resource mobilization techniques. Toward Enterprise Resiliency: Develop a predictive model that will enable a company to preemptively recognize and successfully respond to a threat before it becomes a crisis Infinite Events Finite Internal & External Impacts • Resiliency Planning • Effects • People • Process • Technology • Infrastructure • Partners • Market • Economic • Prioritized Ranking of Threats • Review of Existing Plans • Threat Reduction Controls • Gap Analysis • Development & Testing of Resiliency Plans Physical, Personnel, Information, Reputation, Participants, Economic, Public and Private Infrastructure Impacts

  23. Drive a collective accountability for the issues and ensure that we are psychologically prepared to operate in a tight environment . . . High Disasters waiting to happen Resilience Culture Accountability Paralysis & Fear Scapegoating & Finger pointing High Low Psychological Security Source: Brian Lapin

  24. An integrated Emergency Management Model for the Electricity Industry to drive higher collective responsibility National Disaster Recovery DPE DME DPLG ERCC RJCC Local Government DRC ESKOM MUNICS Customers, Stakeholders • Collaboration on:- • Scenario Planning and Macro risk factors • World Cup 2010 Readiness • Integration on load shedding • Joint Emergency Preparedness Simulations • Consistent and focussed approach to stakeholder management

  25. “Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.” Sir Winston Churchill Phezu Komkhono

  26. FutureWorld powered by Deloitte is the Strategy Consulting business of Deloitte SA. FWpbD is Africa’s largest Strategy Consulting Firm. The 150 Consultants that work for the business bring together Industry Insight and Strategic Competencies to add value to our clients. Our Energy Industry Focus is across Oil, Gas and Electricity and helps these clients focus on the issues of today and the business of tomorrow.

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