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NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007

NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007. Charles A. Leader Director, Jay Merkle, Chief Architect Joint Planning and Development Office. It ’ s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods. Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.4% of U.S. GDP.

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NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007

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  1. NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007 Charles A. Leader Director, Jay Merkle, Chief Architect Joint Planning and Development Office

  2. It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.4% of U.S. GDP. • If expanded to include related industries, its 9% of U.S. GDP • Contributes 11 million jobs to our economy

  3. All Signs Point to Continued Strong Growth • One Billion+ Passengers in U.S. Skies by 2015 • Potential for Triple Demand by 2025 • New Entrants Such as Very Light Jets • Global Market Opportunities • U.S. Travel and Tourism to Grow 4.2% Annually

  4. General Aviation Challenges • Maintaining access to National Airspace • Preserving VFR • Limiting Equipage Costs • Limiting Restricted Airspace

  5. Air Taxi/VLJ Challenges • Personal Air Travel Alliance Survey of top five Air Taxi Operators • 500 VLJ’s within three years • 200-300 mile average flight • 18,000 – 21,000 feet altitude at 340 knots • Primarily secondary airport destinations • Target 1000 hrs/yr operation per VLJ • Dramatic Demand growth outside legacy carrier route structure

  6. Defense (DoD/DHS) Airspace Challenges • 13,000 aircraft fleet • Management of Air Defense Identification zones • Temporary flight restrictions • Special Use Airspace • Equipage costs • Homeland Defense Requirements

  7. Transformation Started Yesterday • Real World Improvements Being Delivered Now • Transformational Building Blocks • Network Enabled Operations: The Big Picture • Revolutionizing Air Navigation and Surveillance

  8. Core Technologies, Capabilities & Sys Eng Epoch 1 FY07-11 • Complete R&D leading to mid-term • Continue R&D that address long-term NextGen challenges • Develop & implement known & new procedures, infrastructure, technologies • Develop NextGen systems integration plan for mid-term transition to NextGen • Complete infrastructure and systems engineering for mid-term Mid-Term Transition to NextGen Epoch 2 FY12-18 • Aircraft equipped for the mid-term & upgradeable to NextGen target • Deliver NextGen services & capabilities across domains • Complete “hard” infrastructure – airports, runways, terminals, security • Management & operating models support transition to NextGen and • long-term sustainability NextGen Solutions Fully Integrated & Operating Epoch 3 FY19-25 • NextGen solutions fully-integrated & operating across air transportation system • Services managed & operating in ways that achieve transformational outcomes across air transportation system ATM “view” of evolution Research Building NextGen FY07 – 11 4DT Management Performance-Based Ops & Services Equivalent Visual Ops (CDTI) Roles of Pilots & Controllers FY12 – 18 Super Density Operations Time-Based Surface Ops Right Sizing of Facilities FY19 – 25 Research for Transformed NextGen State

  9. NextGen Plan Concept of Operations Enterprise Architecture June 2007 Integrated Work Plan July 2007 OMB Business Case Exhibit 300 Sept 2007

  10. NextGen Concept of Operations (ConOps) V2 was completed on June 13, 2007 NextGen Enterprise Architecture V2 to be completed by June 22, 2007 V2 in FEA Format to be sent to OMB by the end of June JPDO Product Development

  11. Integrated Work Plan Roadmap of operational improvements between today and full NextGen in 2025 (~ 69 ATM OIs) Includes development and implementation, R&D, and Policy efforts required to achieve the operational improvements Dependencies and critical path Initial Baseline is on schedule to be completed by the end of July 2007 JPDO Product Development – Cont-d

  12. Exhibit 300 – Business Case Will define the NextGen investment portfolio across all partner agencies Draft to be completed by June Final to OMB in September JPDO Product Development – Cont-d

  13. Modeling and Simulation National Virtual Test Bed (NVTB) Quantifies OMB Business Case Requirements “One-Story” Analysis Models benefits, cost, risk Supports safety and environmental case Identifies Priority Areas NGATS Institute Funded studies of key issues Supporting Capabilities

  14. Key Capabilities:Performance-Based Operations and Services

  15. Key Capabilities:Network Enabled Information Access • Network Enabled Operations (NEO) • Network Enabled Infrastructure (NEI) • Network Enabled Weather (NEW)

  16. Net-centric weather information is made available and understandable to all approved users A reliable virtual, common weather picture is foundational for optimal air transportation decision-making Presentation of weather data is tailored to user operational needs Widespread use of integrated probabilistic weather-related decision support systems Automatic updates to users based on operational need An adaptive observing system integrating ground, airborne and spaced-based sensors Key Capabilities:Weather Assimilated into Decision Making

  17. Key Capabilities:Layered Adaptive Security • Adaptive Security for People, Cargo, Airports and Aircraft • Risk Assessment-Driven Evaluation and Response • Positive Identification for People and Cargo • Preventive Threat Detection and Mitigation

  18. Key Capabilities:Position, Navigation and Timing Services (PNT) • Air routes are independent of the location of ground-based navigation aids • RNAV is used everywhere; RNP is used where required • System performance meets operational needs to service the demand • Increased availability of guided approaches at smaller airports* *Mostly for general aviation with lower minimums

  19. Key Capabilities:Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations Services and Operations based on precise trajectory execution • Self-Separation Services • Flow Corridors • Super Density Arrival/Departure Airspace

  20. Key Capabilities:Equivalent Visual Operations • Improved information availability which allows aircraft operations without regard to visibility • Access to PNT enables increased accessibility for airport surface and arrival/departure operations • Enables more predictable and efficient operations regardless of meteorological conditions

  21. Key Capabilities:Super Density Operations • Use of RNP operations and procedures • Mitigation of wake vortex constraints • Improved runway incursion prevention algorithms • Automatic distribution of runway braking action reports • Distribution of taxi instructions before landing • Use of aircraft sensors

  22. Benefits of End-State NextGen Based upon FAA estimates of $2,736/hour of airline direct operating costs, includes variable (fuel is assumed to cost $722/hour) and fixed costs (such as depreciation), and $1,090/hour of general aviation direct operating costs (GA fuel is assumed to cost $114/hour). Assumes 36,000 airline flights/day, 16,000 general aviation IFR flights/day. Assumes all flights accrue the benefits. Benefits across flight phases are not additive due to overlapping assumptions and correlation. Source of cost data: GRA Inc., “Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions, a Guide,” FAA APO, December 2004.

  23. Initiate Trajectory-based Operations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment Improve Collaborative ATM Reduce Weather Impact Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities NextGen Implementation Status Funded Commitments Mid-Term Capabilities FY07 FY08 FY09 2012 - 2018 ADS-B- Implement 1st segment of advanced surveillance & broadcast services to deliver en-route, terminal, & surface surveillance data from key sites via broadcast comm. link SWIM- Implement 1st set of data exchange services using net-centric technology and architecture to support increase shared situational awareness NNEW – Demonstrate inter-agency Wx Dissemination Mgmt capabilities to Integrate effective Wx info into Operational decision-making DataComm – Develop architecture to transform from a voice-only comm. to an air-ground data comm. capability Demos & Infrastructure - Perform formal demos that advance R&D, operational concepts and key infrastructure NASA programs • Aviation Safety • Airspace Systems • Fundamental Aeronautics 2019-2025

  24. Progress • NextGen Concept of Operations and Enterprise Architecture to be base-lined June 2007 • Integrated Work Plan baseline and Business Case (E-300) to be completed this summer • FAA initial system changes underway (infrastructure and initial applications) • ADS-B • SWIM • DataCom • Voice Switch • Demonstrations • FAA mid-term plan in development (Operational Evolution Partnership) • NASA research aligned (long-term transformation) • Near-term interagency initiatives: • NextGen Network-enabled Weather Joint Program Office, Safety Management System, Net-centric Information System

  25. Achieving Integration Pace of Implementation Overcoming Technical Hurdles Changing Policy and Culture Achieving Global Harmonization Challenges

  26. www.jpdo.gov

  27. Backup

  28. JPDO has reviewed several initial outside estimates: FAA’s Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee (REDAC) MITRE Avionics Estimate FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO) The First Five Years -$4.6 billion: $4.3 billion in ATO capital appropriation and $300 million in research, engineering, and development. The Cost of NextGen

  29. Our Partner Agencies: In FY08 our partner agencies are investing a total of about $300 million in NextGen, primarily in R&D. Longer-Term Cost Estimates: Next 10 years $8-10 billion End-state or through 2025 $15-22 billion Avionics costs= $14-20 billion The Cost Of NextGen – cont-d

  30. NextGen Evolution JPDO Planning & Oversight NextGen Plan NextGen Plan provides mechanismfor alignment and oversight Feedback Feedback Feedback Alignment Alignment Alignment Epoch 1 – Near Term Core Infrastructure, Initial Applications, & Systems Engineering Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Agencies Implementation Epoch 2 – Mid Term Mid-Term Transition to Primary NextGen Operations NEAR MID LONG Develop Reduce Risk Research Operate Develop Reduce Risk Operate Develop Epoch 3 – Long Term NextGen Solutions Fully Integrated - Transformation Complete Phased Implementationto manage risk andensure intermediate benefits NextGen

  31. Figure 2‑2. ATM Decisions—Interactive and Integrated Across Time Horizons

  32. Figure 2‑3. Airspace Hierarchy

  33. Figure 2‑5. Collaborative ATM Among ANSP & Operators

  34. Figure 2‑6. Elements of a Four-Dimensional Trajectory

  35. Figure 2‑7. Flow Corridors

  36. Figure 2‑8. Super-Density Terminal Operations

  37. Operations Global access and compatibility Airspace access for test, training and readiness (continuing, reliable access Special Use Airspace resources) UAS integration, access Net-Enabled Information Sharing (NEIS) policy and architecture for compatibility in NextGen Air Security Air Domain Surveillance and Intelligence Integration Air Defense Acquisition/Resources Fleet (incl. UAS) certification and equipage Integration, planning & investment for Deployable Air Traffic Control & Landing Systems (ATCALS, including shipboard systems) Expertise & investments offer a leveraging tool for furthering NextGen design and implementation DoD Interests and Risks Bottom Line: NextGen will impact the way the DoD plans, funds and flies domestically and globally

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