Cosmic Rays and Space Weather

1. Cosmic Raysand Space Weather Erwin O. Flückiger Laurent Desorgher, Rolf Bütikofer, Benoît Pirard Physikalisches Institut University of Bern erwin.flueckiger@space.unibe.ch

2. 87% p 12% α & ….. The Cosmic Ray-Space Weather System

3. Main Space Weather Domain at present ACE, GOES… AMS, BESS, PAMELA, … Special Detectors Neutron Monitors AUGER, … Muon Telescopes Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays Flux: ~35 orders of magnitude/ Energy: ~ 14 orders of magnitude

4. Worldwide Neutron Monitor Network

5. Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere p neutrons & protons Neutron Monitors Detector Response (Parameterized Yield Function)

6. 1991-2001 Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

7. Latitude Dependence of Cosmic Ray Intensity(sea level) Earth Solar Minimum Solar Maximum Geomagnetic ShieldingofGalacticCosmic Rays

8. ChargedParticles Solar Flare Sun Earth Electromagnetic Radiation& Neutrons Solar Cosmic Rays

9. Solar Energetic ParticleEvent Alert • In the January 20, 2005 GLE, the earliest neutron monitor onset preceded the earliest Proton Alert issued by the Space Environment Centerby 14 minutes • Neutron Monitors can provide the earliest alert of a Solar Energetic Particle Event Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

10. GLE Alert Study: a GLE Alert is issued when 3 stations of Spaceship Earth (plus South Pole) record a 4% increase in 3-min averaged data • With 3 stations, false alarm rate is near zero • GLE Alert precedes SEC Proton Alert by ~ 10-30 min Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

11. Solar Cosmic Ray Events Forecasting Intensity / Time Profile September 29, 1989 GLE: forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 11.40 UT) circles – observed total neutron intensity curves – forecasting Dorman et al., 2005

12. Solar Cosmic Rays Evaluation of Radiation Doses

13. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventNeutron Monitor Observations

14. From NM Data, outside of the Magnetosphere: - Apparent Source Direction - Pitch Angle Distribution - Rigidity Spectrum PLANETOCOSMICS: - Asymptotic Directions(MAGNETOCOSMICS) - Cutoff Rigidities Spectrum at the top of the Atmospherefor specified arrival directions PLANETOCOSMICS: - Cascade in the Atmosphere- Secondary Spectra Method Secondary Spectra → Dosage Pelliccioni et al., Overview of Fluence to Effective Dose and Fluence to Ambient Dose Conversion Coefficients for High Energy Radiation Calculated Using the FLUKA Code, Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2000;88:4:279-297

15. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude Apatity NM

16. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude Apatity NM

17. Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

18. Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

19. The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude Notification of Ground Level Event: December 13th, 2006 Assessment of doses by the EURADOS Working Group `Aircraft Crew Dosimetry` ………… For normal aircraft altitudes and for higher latitudes, for instance for Europe to US west coast or Japan routes, initial estimates indicate that the additional doses should not exceed 40 µSv/flight. Final estimates will be produced after analysis of satellite and ground monitor data, and any in−flight measurements results. ………. http://www.euradnews.org/

20. GLEs during Solar Cycles 19-23 30th ICRC; Paper 715, Shea & Smart

21. CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms Warning of Approaching Disturbance

22. CME / Interplanetary Shock – Geomagnetic Storm Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab

23. Interplanetary Space Magnetopause Bending of Particle Trajectories in the Earth‘s Magnetic Field p p p p Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere neutrons & protons muons Muon Telescopes Neutron Monitors Directional Viewing of Ground Based CR Detectors

24. Directional Viewing Sun IMF 180° 90° 30°S 60°S Example: Five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald (~ 54°N,   ~ 13°E) (GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

25. Directional Viewing Sun IMF Example: 24-hour rotation of five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald(GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

26. Intensity deficit confined in a cone Muon Diagnostics Loss-cone Precursors Nagashima et al. [1992], Ruffolo [1999] Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

27. Muon Diagnostices Loss Cones appear as a “Predecrease” when viewed by a single detector Event on December 14, 2006 observed by muon detector in São Martinho, Brazil As detector viewing directions rotate through loss cone, a predecrease is seen first from the East, then from Vertical, and finally from West Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

28. Muon Diagnostices URAGAN muon hodoscope ICRC 2007, Paper 298, Timashkov et al.

29. Loss Cones Can Be Seen in a “Bubble Plot” in Large Events • In this bubble plot, each circle represents a directional channel in a muon telescope • Circle is plotted at time of observation (abscissa) and pitch angle of asymptotic viewing direction (ordinate) • Solid circles indicate a deficit intensity relative to omnidirectional average, and open circles indicate excess intensity; scale is indicated at right of plot • Loss cone is evidenced by large solid circles concentrated near 0O pitch angle • Figure adapted from Munakata et al., J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27457-27468, 2000. Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

30. Spaceship Earth http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/ 11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time, 3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN (Moscow Region, Russia), Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity, Russia), Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Australian Antarctic Division (Hobart), and the University of Tasmania (Hobart). Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Display and Bidirectional Streaming Display Muon Network Loss Cone Display and Bidirectional Streaming Display

31. CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms “Geo-effectiveness” Predictions limited

32. The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

33. The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

34. Modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity ~5% Decrease at mid-latitude GLE Jungfraujoch Neutron Monitor The 14 December 2006 Forbush Decrease

35. Space Weather Networks e.g. - Spaceship Earth - Aragats Space –Environmental Center (ASEC) in Armenia- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center - MuSTAnG – Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald - Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN) - FP-7 Program NMDB (Real Time Neutron Monitor Data Base) Kick-off meeting January 2008

36. Summary and Conclusions • Galactic and solar cosmic rays play a significant role in all space weather scenarios • Solar cosmic ray particle events:- Forecasting of occurrence not possible at present stage- New analysis techniques allow limited alert and prognosis of characterstics of ongoing events- Quantitative modelling (e.g. of radiation dosis at aircraft altitude) needs expertise in a broad field of topics • Solar/geomagnetic storms:- Inner heliosphere screening: Warning of approaching disturbances possible with neutron monitor and muon telescope data • New Hybrid Particle Detectors measuring multiple secondary particle fluxes have a large potential • Global detector networks operating in real time are essential for space weather applications!