OECD Balance of Payments The quality review and follow-up

1. OECD Balance of PaymentsThe quality review and follow-up Bill Cave and Isaac Lagnado OECD Statistics Directorate ITS-TIS September 2006

2. Overview • OECD Statistics Quality Review of BOP activity 2004 • Self-assessment of what we do • Users and stakeholders • Report 2005 • Progress and Follow-up

3. Self-assessment of what we do • STD Balance of Payments (BOP) activity is twofold. • compilation and maintenance of the BOP Dataset • aims to provide analysts with timely and internationally comparable summary set of BOP data items for OECD (and Big 6) • coordination of OECD interests in Balance of Payments (excluding FDI where DAFFE leads) • representation of these in methodological development work of the IMF Balance of Payments Committee • Links to Trade in Services, FDI, Merchandise trade, Remittances, National Accounts, Financial Accounts etc

4. Methodological Standards • BOP methodological standards set by IMF • BOP Manual 5th Edition – now being revised • IMF strongly encourages countries to present data according IMF BPM5 standards • All OECD countries ostensibly do so • But national compilation methods vary e.g. ITRS, Surveys, Customs and Other administrative data • Generally good level of international comparability

5. Core Variables collected • 1 Current Account B(alance) • Goods – X, M, B • Services – X, M, B • Income – Cr, Db, B • Current Transfers – B • 2 Capital Account – B • 3 Financial Account – B • FDI Abroad, FDI in Reporting Economy • Portfolio Investment Assets, .. Liabilities • Financial derivatives net • Other Investment Assets, … Liabilities • Change in reserve assets • 4 Net Errors and Omissions ITS-TIS September 2006

6. How are data collected? • Web Queries • SIMS : electronic files or interrogation of National databases • Manual entry – seek to minimise • Seasonal adjustment of current account series, where countries do not provide(X12 ARIMA using Fame routines)

7. Measures and controls • Measures are: • national currency unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (current account only) • US Dollar unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (selected variables only) • Data controls • Data capture – series by series historic comparisons • MEI validation controls • CB=G+S+I+T • FA=DI+PI+FD+OI+RA • CB+CAP+FA+NEO=0

8. Users • ECO are our most important user for their economic forecasting and analysis. • Timeliness • Want 24 hour updating during peak periods • Seasonal adjusted data • DAF for investment committee or publications • Quarterly data • DSTI Detailed annual data • General demand for zone totals

9. Main Quality Review Recommendations • Develop Zone totals • More automatic data collection and improve quality control, and timeliness • Review metadata in 2006 • Take opportunities to raise the profile of BOP dataset • No clear demand for more monthly series • Review how to make non-member BOP more coherent

10. Recent Developments in BOP • More $ series • Zones OECD and G7 Totals for Goods , Services, FDI and G7 • Monitoring timeliness – Exhibit A and B • Coordination with Non-member BOP – Factbook • Newsletter article • Proactive discussion with users

11. Zone totals for FDI Flows

12. Data dissemination • MEI • BOP data are compiled, stored and published in the MEI database. Dissemination simply reflects the case of the MEI database as a whole • Press release • Quarterly news release for Trade in Goods and Services • OECD.Stat – BOP dataset on OLIS and free subset on Internet

13. Current Plans • Review and Revise Metadata by End 2005 • Improve timeliness • Create new Zone totals – OECD Europe, N America, Asia-Pacific • Improve Quality: with SIMS to develop new data preparation and validation area • Non-members?

14. The End • Thank you for your attention • Any comments or questions? ITS-TIS September 2006