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Innovation Dynamics : Industry & Technology Roadmapping IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03 Joost Bonsen jpbonsen@alum.mit.edu http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/ Technology Roadmapping (TRM) Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary

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slide1

InnovationDynamics:Industry & Technology RoadmappingIAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03Joost Bonsenjpbonsen@alum.mit.eduhttp://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/

slide2

Technology Roadmapping

(TRM)

  • Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis
  • Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary
  • Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum
  • Viewing Business Implications & Context of Technology trends
  • Unifying, Big-Picture perspective
  • Long-term view, “futurecasting”
  • Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players & MIT research sponsors
  • Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar
technology roadmapping

Technology Roadmapping

Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering

Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

generalizing enriching historic technology demand trends
Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends
  • Historical Efforts
    • Moore’s Law
    • Electronic Devices
    • Sematech Roadmap
    • Disk Drives
  • Ongoing
    • Optical Networking
    • Wireless
  • Future
    • New technologies

slide5

80786

Pentium

Pro

80486

Pentium

80386

80286

8086

8080

4004

Moore’s Law

Transistors per chip

109

?

108

107

106

105

104

103

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999

Source: Fine, MIT

slide6

295oK

77oK

4oK

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1980

1970

Roadmap for Electronic Devices

Number of chip components

1018

Classical Age

Quantum Age

1016

1014

1012

Quantum State Switch

SIA Roadmap

1010

108

Historical Trend

CMOS

106

104

102

101

100

10-1

10-2

10-3

Source: Fine, MIT

Feature size (microns)

Horst D. Simon

slide8

Disk Drive Development

1978-1991

Disk Drive

Generation

14”

8”

5.25”

3.5”

2.5”

Dominant

Producer

IBM

Quantum

Seagate

Conner

Conner

Dominant

Usage

mainframe

Mini-computer

Desktop PC

Portable PC

Notebook PC

Approx cost per

Megabyte

$750

$100

$30

$7

$2

From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year

while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive cost

per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10

Source: Fine, MIT

optical networking

Voice growth

TDM line rategrowth

Data growth

Optical network

capacity growth

Optical Networking

OC768

OC192

OC48

Capacity

OC12

Time

Source: Fine, MIT

slide10

DOUBLE

DOUBLE

HELIX

HELIX

Optical Technology Evolution:

Navigating the Generations

with an Immature Technology

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & Corning

Source: Fine, MIT

supply chain volatility amplification the bullwhip effect
Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:“The Bullwhip Effect”

Retailer

Customer

Distributor

Factory

Equipment

Tier 1 Supplier

Information lags

Delivery lags

Over- and underordering

Misperceptions of feedback

Lumpiness in ordering

Chain accumulations

SOLUTIONS:

Countercyclical Markets

Countercyclical Technologies

Collaborative channel mgmt.

(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)

Source: Fine, MIT

slide12

% Chg. GDP

% Chg. Vehicle Production Index

% Chg. Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry

100

80

60

40

20

% Change, Year to Year

0

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

-20

-40

-60

-80

Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:

Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip

"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study,"

E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management,

Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.

Source: Fine, MIT

what are trm essentials
What are TRM essentials?
  • Performance indicators
  • Innovations over time, trendlines
  • Physical limitations
  • Value Chains
  • Industry Structure

benefits of mit tech roadmapping
Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping
  • Observing Value Chain Evolution over time
  • Language for discussion between management & technology world
  • Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains, between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application
  • Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics  LIDS  Media Lab  eBiz Center
  • Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps
    • Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)
other roadmapping efforts
Other Roadmapping Efforts
  • ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors
    • http://public.itrs.net/
  • Electricity Technology Roadmap
    • http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/
  • Steel Industry Technology Roadmap
    • http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm
  • Lighting Technology Roadmap
    • http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/
  • Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM
    • http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm
technology and industry roadmaps
Technology AND Industry Roadmaps
  • Not just focus on technologies
  • Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the Industry level
  • How technology is adopted (or not): what are economic & business issues
trm industry benefits
TRM Industry-Benefits
  • Economic context for technology decisions & investments
  • Lowering Risks for capital investments
  • Not Stalin’s 5-year plans – rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition
components of mit s technology roadmapping effort are at least
Components of MIT’s Technology Roadmapping Effort (are at Least)
  • Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect)
  • Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book)
  • Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-like analyses for players in the value chain)
  • Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Association's roadmap built around Moore's law)
  • Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross Sector

Source: Fine, MIT

the fine helix

DOJ 1984

Telecom Act 1996

Broadband,

Convergence

Integral/

Vertical

Modular/

Horizontal

1998

Niche

Competitors

Market Power

(local carriers)

High

Complexity

2000

Pressure to

Dis-Integrate

Pressure to

Integrate

Economies of Scope

(single provider, PTN)

Organizational

(and regulatory)

Rigidities

The Fine Helix

Source: Carroll, Srikantiah & Wolters 2000; Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt

generalizing quantifying clockspeed
Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed
  • Benefits to comparing between Industries
  • Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics
    • Cross-species Benchmarking
  • Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretical understanding
different degrees of industry aggregation
Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation
  • Communications Roadmap
    • Optical Communications
      • MicroPhotonics
    • Wireless
      • Personal Area Networking
      • Cellular G3, G4, G5
  • Medical Imaging
    • MRI
      • Functional MRI
  • Nanotechnology
    • Precision Engineering
      • AFM
    • Biological Engineering
      • Bacterial Robotics
trm technology domains including but not limited to
Established

Semiconductors

Photonics

Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics

Wireless

MEMS

Smart Materials

Emerging

Soft Lithography

Neurotechnology

Nanotechnology

Organotechnology

Biological Engineering

Gerontechnology

Autonomous Systems

TRM Technology Domains(including, but not limited to…)

MIT Emerging Technology Matrix:

http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html

mit strategic technology thrusts
MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts
  • Information Technologies = Ever more sophisticated computation & communication, leveraging mind & media.
  • Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering, perfecting the health & life sciences.
  • Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru nano
  • Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political & econo-technological systems.
  • Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in developing & emerging regions
richly interwoven mit themes
Richly Interwoven MIT Themes

1. InfoTech

2. BioTech

3. TinyTech

4. Complex

Systems

5. Developmental

Innovations

slide26

MIT Matrix

http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm

slide27

http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htmhttp://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm

core sloan themes
Core Sloan Themes

Leadership

Innovation

Technology

Entrepreneurship &

Strategy Dynamics

Effective Organizations, Culture-Crafting Entre- & Intra-preneurial Leadership

Transformative Innovations, Emerging Hard & Soft Technologies, Disruptive Challenges

Dynamic,

Networked

Organizations

Developmental Innovations, MicroFinance

Global Business Strategy, Accelerating International Development

Global

unifying strategic themes

MIT Sloan

Unifying Strategic Themes

Unifying Strategic Themes

Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

classic disciplinary strengths

MIT Sloan

Classic Disciplinary Strengths

Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

mit sloan capabilities

MIT Sloan Matrix

MIT Sloan Capabilities

Sloan

Matrix

Unifying Strategic Themes

Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

sloan matrix

Innovation

Leadership

Global

Sloan Matrix

Unifying Strategic Themes

Venture

Finance

Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

faculty interests @ levels of analysis
Faculty Interests @ Levels of Analysis

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

Economic

Growth

Global

Supply Chains

Global

Strategy

Market

Differentiation

Technology

Roadmaps

Technology

Strategy

Venture

Capital

Business

Dynamics

Entrepreneurial

Culture

Valuing

IP

Marketing-

Engineering Links

Group

Dynamics

Trader

Psychology

Buyer

Decision-Making

Inventor

Ethos

levels x discipline

Economic

Growth

Global

Supply Chains

Global

Strategy

Market

Differentiation

Technology

Roadmaps

Technology

Strategy

Venture

Capital

Business

Dynamics

Entrepreneurial

Culture

Valuing

IP

Marketing-

Engineering Links

Group

Dynamics

Trader

Psychology

Buyer

Decision-Making

Inventor

Ethos

Levels x Discipline

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

research clusters at various levels of analysis
Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis…

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

Technology Roadmap

Technology Venture

Observatory

OpenSource

Initiative

Virtual Customer

Initiative

Emerging Tech-Biz

Live Cases

weaving together interest clusters at various levels of analysis
Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various Levels of Analysis…

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

Technology Roadmap

Technology Venture

Observatory

OpenSource

Initiative

Virtual Customer

Initiative

ION

Emerging Tech-Biz

Live Cases

innovation observatories further possibilities

Global Development

Observatory

Venture Capital

Observatory

Creative Communities Observatory

Social Network

Observatory

Decision Neuropsychology Lab

Innovation Observatories:Further Possibilities

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

Technology Roadmap

Technology Venture

Observatory

OpenSource

Initiative

Virtual Customer

Initiative

Emerging Tech-Biz

Live Cases

innovation observatories technology roadmapping
Innovation Observatories:Technology Roadmapping

Econ-

omy

Sector

Firm

Group

Indi-

vidual

Geo-

graphy

Market/

Tech

Organi-

zation

Theme

Idea

Technology Roadmapping

slide41

Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium

eBusiness,

Oxygen,

Media Lab

LCS

LIDS, RLE

MPC, MTL

ITC

MATERIALS &

PROCESS EQUIP

COMP-

ONENTS

CONTENT & APPLICS

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

NETWORK

OWNERS

SERVICE

PROVIDERS

END

USERS

DEVICES

  • Business
  • Consumer
  • Gov’t
  • Military
  • Education
  • Medical
  • Etc..

Source: Prof. C. Fine, MIT

why value tech roadmapping
Why Value Tech Roadmapping?
  • Trends -- Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future
  • Consensus – Shared opinion about likely future developments
  • Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue particular technologies
  • Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding
  • Understanding -- Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends
15 795 technology roadmapping
15.795 Technology Roadmapping

(An example Masters Research Seminar)

Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen

Fall 2002

This seminar will explore the purposes and development of

Technology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible

development paths for various technological domains and the industries

that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of

innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement

trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry

evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the

MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other

domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics,

Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics,

etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered.

trm class goals
TRM Class Goals
  • Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors
  • Across MIT research areas
  • Cross Industry Benchmarking
  • Partnered with Industrial Sponsors
  • Attract students passionate about technology sector, however broadly or narrowly defined
  • Committed to producing coherent & complete Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester
engaging masters students in mit sloan research agendae
Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae
  • Business school disconnect
  • Unfortunate and sub-optimal
  • We’re prototyping a new path
  • Help show that it works!
seminars conferences
Seminars & Conferences
  • Part of 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.
  • Find them through http://web.mit.edu Google & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.
high trm student expectations
High TRM Student Expectations
  • Serious commitment of time & interest
  • Literature review & substantial interviews
  • Attend talks & seminar series in that tech sector, that’s part of the course
    • E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.shtml
  • Data gathering & presentation smithing
  • Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters end
trm academia speakers and labs to engage
TRM Academia Speakers(and Labs to Engage)
  • Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS
        • http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/
  • Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI
        • http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/
  • Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors
  • Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech
        • http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html
  • Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics
        • http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html
  • Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery
        • http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html
  • Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen
        • http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/
  • Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering
        • http://web.mit.edu/be/
  • E. Sachs, 3D Printing
        • http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/
  • Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms
        • http://cba.mit.edu/
  • Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology
        • http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html
trm seeds working collaborations w mit labs sponsors
TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs & Sponsors
  • Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics Center & Communication Roadmap
  • Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM seminar
    • Ask them to speculate about the important trends in their areas & to proto-roadmap
    • What would they like? What would their sponsors like?
trm literature
TRM Literature
  • MicroPhotonics Center
    • http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu
  • Example Theses
    • http://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.html
  • References
    • http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/
slide52
Fin

Joost Bonsen jpbonsen@alum.mit.edu