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WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol

WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol. Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003. California Air Resources Board. Assessment. Evaluation. Meteorology. Emissions. Input Data Analysis. Modeling. Model Evaluation. Health Risk Assessment.

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WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol

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  1. WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDYStatus Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  2. Assessment Evaluation Meteorology Emissions Input Data Analysis Modeling Model Evaluation Health Risk Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Results and Risk Communication Wilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual Plan • What are estimated emissions and pollutant concentrations? • What are health risks? • What do the results mean? • Can I trust them? August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  3. Status Update - Emissions Inventory • Industrial-Commercial Facilities • Inventory complete and has received QA/QC • Evaluation expected to be complete for next meeting • Modeling has been initiated • On-Road Sources • Exhaust emissions estimated • Running evaporative loses, and on-road dust not yet quantified • Modeling in progress • Inventory evaluation not yet initiated. August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  4. Status Update - Emissions Inventory • Ports • State-of-science inventories: best in the world • Los Angeles data expected December 2003. Includes: • All off-road equipment at marine terminals • Harbor Craft - detailed load estimates (on-board survey) • Ocean-going vessels - 50 ships boarded. Stack data and engine load measurements directly from ships. • Railroads - Electronic engine records for 18 locomotives on standard routes. • On-Road Trucks - Idling and movement estimates all terminals • Long Beach data expected December 2003 • Covers all dockside emissions - POLA methods • Ocean-side - allocate existing inventories using Warfinger data August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  5. Wilmington Modeling Protocol Micro-scale • Developing new protocol specific to Wilmington • Improvements based on Barrio Logan • Expanded Protocol for improved model evaluation August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  6. Modeling Protocol - Overview • Previous Work – Barrio Logan Study • Modeling Approach for the Wilmington Air Quality Study • Regional Scale Modeling Details • Model selection • Modeling Domains and Time Period • Emission Inputs • Meteorology (models, data, model evaluation) • Initial and boundary conditions • Air quality model pre-testing • Other Model Evaluations • Micro-scale Scale Modeling Details • Emissions • Modeling Domain and Time Period • Inputs for Micro-scale Modeling • Model Performance Evaluation • Regional model evaluation (performance for ozone, for toxics, sensitivity simulations) • Micro-scale model evaluation • Uncertainty Analysis • Combining Micro-scale and Regional Model Results • Zero-out approach, Tracers approach, Other approaches August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  7. WAQS – Micro-scale Modeling ISCST3, AERMOD and CALPUFF for point and area sources, CALINE and ISCST3 for mobile on-road sources August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  8. Wilmington Tracer Study • Elevated Release • Release Location: LADWP Power Plant in Wilmington • Objective • formulate and evaluate a short-range dispersion model applicable to elevated sources in urban areas • to extend the limited databases for evaluating the performance of short-range dispersion models in urban areas. • Schedule • pilot study – 09/2003 • main field study – summer 2004 • Typical tracer dispersion pattern from LADWP August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  9. Wilmington Monitoring Study • Study planned for Fall-Winter 2003-2004 • One stationary, 2-3 portable sites • Each portable site at a single location for two weeks • Focus on diesel PM - Qualitative measurement • No direct surrogate for diesel - requires innovative approach • Direct-Reading: Black Carbon, Carbon Monoxide, Total PAH • Hypothesis: BC/CO and PAH should be higher in areas that are impacted by diesel PM than in non-impacted areas • Sites not yet determined • Ports conducting a separate, longer-term study • In conjunction with Desert Research Institute, SAIC • Use chemical mass balance on elemental and OC/EC measurements August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

  10. Conclusion • Neighborhood assessment objectives: • Evaluate neighborhood level emissions, exposures, and health risks in a region • Wilmington objective is refined assessment • Study is designed to improve modeling methods • Can’t be implemented on a statewide basis • Statewide Protocol • Describes implementation of NAP methods - statewide • Learn from refined studies • Which sources are important? • Which modeling approaches are feasible? • What do model results mean? August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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